I think day to day fluctuations are likely - unless you are implying we've already reached the peak?

Edit - quoted wrong post 

 

Originally Posted by: John p 

 

New working week , see what that does 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

Yes, I know. Just trying to maintain some balance

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Excellent piece by an epidemiologist from Harvard which slaughters the approach being taken by the UK government.

The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Hancock, will use this figure tomorrow to say we are winning the battle.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Current mortality rate in Italy is 7.3%

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I've now seen a copy of the letter our school sent home on Friday to parents (on the unofficial Facebook page - no, I don't have a FB account, but you can see it without logging in). Remember, all schools were told to send one of these home.

It's pretty generic, really, going on about how they've given out Google logins so that work is available "over the coming weeks" should people need to self-isolate.

The more interesting line is towards the end, when it says that if you have problems let them know as soon as possible, so it can be sorted "in the coming week". That again backs up what they've been thinking about being told to close this Friday...

(And the person who gets to sort it is... me! Of course, were I at home self-isloating that'd be slower to do...)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

 

If that's true, the death rate in Italy is stupendous!

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

 

But as Jim says that doesn't include the tens of thousands of people who have the virus but don't require treatment (or testing).

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

Current mortality rate in Italy is 7.3%

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 Nobody said otherwise. But the mortality rate is rising, not falling.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

No letter to this household 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

That's normal Justin, it happened in Wuhan too. It should start falling by the end of March.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

Nobody said otherwise. But the mortality rate is rising, not falling.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 

Naughty school, in that case. Schools were told by Government on Thursday they HAD to send these out on Friday.

Of course, that involves a hell of a lot of work (I'd estimate a total of 34 man-hours of IT work alone on Friday, not counting the time spent teaching teachers and giving the kids their logins) and I'm not suprised that not all schools managed it.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The mortality rate is also higher than in Wuhan at any point in the Chinese outbreak.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

i wish they’d test similar numbers as once they ramp up again next week there’s bound to be a big increase which will no doubt cause much excitement in here

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

 
This paragraph above seems very relevant IMO. HMG's reluctance to officially encourage working from home and also it allowing Cheltenham last week and the air travel of ~3,500 Spanish fans from a developing hotspot might go down in history as symbolic of the UK's mishandling of this and as how a government should not handle an epidemic.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

Naughty school, in that case. Schools were told by Government on Thursday they HAD to send these out on Friday.

Of course, that involves a hell of a lot of work (I'd estimate a total of 34 man-hours of IT work alone on Friday, not counting the time spent teaching teachers and giving the kids their logins) and I'm not suprised that not all schools managed it.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

This epidemiological study estimates the Wuhan rate on 11 Feb at 11.3%-13.1% at the 95% confidence level. I guess though the Lombardy rate might also be revised higher.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

"Since December 2019, when the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control."

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 The official figures for that period was 5.8%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 This says 'as of 20 Feb', so it's either the figure on that date or the average for the period up to 20 Feb? 

Originally Posted by: xioni2