It's official. The cat is out of the back. This from the BBC:

Dire prediction sees shift in UK strategy

James Gallagher

Health and science correspondent, BBC News

The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".

A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.

The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.

Their calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.

Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.

However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.

Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.

The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.

We are in this for the long haul.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51903319

 

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Just on a potential 18 month lockdown. What happens to the millions of people who in a few months time will have had the virus and are now fit, well and immune? Are they expected to sit indoors all day still while society grinds to a halt? 

I would imagine the govt position is that gyms come under the "such as" clause:

Everyone should avoid gatherings and crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres.

Of course if everyone else is following this guidance you might be the only one there, in which case it's fine.

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Logical conclusion given the capacity of the healthcare system, and understandable given the data from Italy. Ideally we'd have a far lower susceptible population for the 2nd and possible 3rd waves, but we have to work around an ever-changing outlook.

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indeed. Hopefully Boris will not criminalise people leaving the house without permission. Even if pub closes I will still go to offie or Tesco and buy cans and sit in the park with the crack heads. 

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Reports that the Chancellor will be in the briefing tomorrow to announce what they are going to do for businesses. 

We went out for a meal tonight to celebrate my daughters 19th. We had a delicious tapas and the dishes just kept coming. There was one other group in there and a couple. It did sort of feel like the calm of episode 2 in the final series of GOT before the dead attacked Winterfell. 

I did use anti bac gel but I've resigned myself to catching it anyway. Between working in a school and having two teenagers in the house there is almost no chance I'll avoid it. 

That's the spirit, good man 

Please remember, it’s not just about you getting it - it’s about who you may pass it on to.

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I'm dreaming that I'm living the script of a very bad movie. Hopefully I'll wake up soon and everything will be fine.

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What EU? They are Donald too!

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Current estimates of the severity of cases.

Hospitalisation and mortality rates by age

*Imperial College Covid-19 research team pic.twitter.com/hhwJKX48ab

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 16, 2020

Is anyone else struggling to focus on their day jobs now? Working on my IT project just seems so trivial right now, as though it will all be so irrelevant in a few months.

 I also have this overwhelming feeling of doom, the not knowing what’s around the corner (I’m still unable to get an answer as to whether I am in the high risk group (43yo, generally healthy but mild/very well controlled asthma). My wife is a teacher so it won’t be long until she catches it and passes it to me!

I do think I’ll need to limit my social media time soon for my own sanity.

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Did the anti-bac improve the taste of the tapas?

I feel now like Richard does normally

I hope he's ok, maybe its even perked him up a bit?

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Look at it this way - we self isolate, we get food delivered including milk (we have milk bottles delivered daily) - you could still catch the virus if the delivery man has it, the milk bottle is contaminated and you touch your face unthinkingly after you have picked it up. It is impossible to be 100% safe from catching it.

If we had closed borders and monitored all those arriving here some weeks ago, the chance is that we could have avoided the worst - we are an island nation after all.

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On a related point we've started leaving the post and parcels for 24 hours before touching them. 

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Thanks, and I would generally agree.

And no, I specifically meant the EU. 

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If I use your herd immunity number and the optimistic modelled CFR, then  60% infected with a true CFR of 0.5% means ~200 thousand deaths in the UK. That 0.5% model estimate though is from China, so our NHS might yield a much higher CFR.

Are you saying that HMG has accepted that it's inevitable that hundreds of thousands of people will die during the herd immunisation process? And if yes, is this decision also shaped by economics because most of these people are pensioners and/or on benefits?

 

You know.. and I know that they won't. 

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The problem with the EU is that it has little power/jurisdiction over national borders or the public health of member states. I am sure though the EU could have rang the alarm earlier and try to coordinate a common European response.  Had the EU asked for more powers over the member state borders and epidemics, then there would probably have been an outcry from eurosceptics.

A professor from Imperial College on Newsnight has just said that there is precedent for a Coronavirus vaccine actually making the virus more dangerous (in one that attacks cats). It was in a brief discussion about the potential for a vaccine and how much testing is required and how long the process takes.

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Seriously? How many more f4cking times does it need to be said before it penetrates your 4” skull? 

It is not about you catching it. It is about you passing it on.

Jesus.

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Something worth thinking about.

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I think you (and Brian) are right to criticise him. He spent the last 2 months here saying how serious this is and when it finally hits home, he chooses to ignore government advice, because he assesses the local risk to be zero. Perhaps he is just obsessed about borders and he only saw this crisis through that prism.