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Gandalf The White
17 March 2020 00:33:27


 


No, it really was bad. It was based on modelling for flu. Health experts were telling them to look at what was actually happening on the ground.


https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1239677922660712448?s=19


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Do we know for certain the modelling was based on flu? Surely they had evidence of the value of R0 and built that in?  It’s a pretty useless model that doesn’t get the two basic parameters right (R0 and CFR levels).


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NickR
17 March 2020 00:35:17


 


Do we know for certain the modelling was based on flu? Surely they had evidence of the value of R0 and built that in?  It’s a pretty useless model that doesn’t get the two basic parameters right (R0 and CFR levels).


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The modelling was based on viral pneumonia. The obsession with the 2nd wave came from modelling it on 1918.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
17 March 2020 00:38:09


 


The modelling was based on viral pneumonia. The obsession with the 2nd wave came from modelling it on 1918.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


A sophisticated model will naturally produce multiple waves, you don't need to base it on 1918.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bugglesgate
17 March 2020 00:40:30


People who have tested positive and then test negitive will presumably be allowed out.


They will have to be.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


.... but most people won't be tested even once, let alone twice  so  in a lot of cases won't know for sure  if they have had it.


Is there an antibody test ?  If so  can this differentiate between someone actively fighting the thing (and so can pass the thing on) and  someone who has  fought it and recovered (who presumably can't) ?


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
fairweather
17 March 2020 00:46:56


It's just dawning on the western world that the only way to slow the virus significantly is too do a Wuhan. Everybody has to stay at home apart from key workers. No one goes out not even to work. This will happen here probably with in two weeks.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It's not about not going out. It's about social distancing. You can get in your car and go for a walk alone in a field and go home.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 00:51:17

Susanna Reid is self-isolating for 2 weeks

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I would gladly self isolate with her


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Lionel Hutz
17 March 2020 00:58:53


 


I'm not sure if you mean for logistical, administrative or financial reasons?  I think it is possible and arguably is necessary.  If people are confident that they will continue to get paid and will still have a job to return to it removes instantly one of the greatest areas of anxiety.  It also means that the pent up demand will return as soon as controls are relaxed and in the meantime people can spend in whatever ways are still possible.


I haven't run the numbers - and it may be too tricky - but I doubt there's much to choose in terms of cost between supporting the economy through this and trying to tidy up the chaos if we don't.


When you look at what is affected it's a major part of our economy being a wide range of services: leisure and hospitality (bars, hotels, cafes, restaurants, pubs etc), entertainment (cinemas, theatres, etc), travel (buses, trains, airlines, shipping, cruises etc), retail (a sector already under pressure).


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


To be honest, I haven't run the numbers either. However, I am certain that it is better to support the economy rather than to clean up the mess. If too many businesses go to the wall, governments simply may not have the wherewithal to re float the economy. Of course, if the numbers are too big, support may not be possible. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



fairweather
17 March 2020 01:05:28


 


indeed. Hopefully Boris will not criminalise people leaving the house without permission. Even if pub closes I will still go to offie or Tesco and buy cans and sit in the park with the crack heads. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Sounds trivial I know but what about legal things? For example I'm over 70 but my car is due for an MOT in two weeks time.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
17 March 2020 01:06:02

How the scientists advising the govt got it so wrong.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

">https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239618707388850182?s=19


I really really really hope this is wrong Nick. Poor modelling or relying too much on modelling has been my concern for several weeks now. This might have convicted thousands of people to their deaths.

xioni2
17 March 2020 01:11:07

This is absolutely, gut-wrenching awful:



  • "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

  • "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

  • A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely".

  • It requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members"


If this is true, then the UK has lost a lot of valuable time and the lack of action over the last 2 weeks will have huge implications over the next 2-3 weeks. A tsunami is now probably heading for NHS ICUs and we can do nothing to stop it.


fairweather
17 March 2020 01:15:11


From a personal point of view, one of the worst things for me is when do I visit my parents again? They are both around 70 but bearing that in mind neither are really high risk i would have thought (eg my dad does things like 20-30 mile walks in a day sometimes). However, the thought of indirectly killing one or both of your parents is a pretty frightening thought. I am next due to go back in early May so i guess i have time to see how things pan out before making a decision. Having spoken to others my age it seems a pretty common concern.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


If they are around 70 and in good health the stats aren't that much different for them killing you.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
17 March 2020 01:19:25

Has anybody out there got any good news?


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
17 March 2020 01:40:02


This is absolutely, gut-wrenching awful:



  • "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

  • "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

  • A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely".

  • It requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members"


If this is true, then the UK has lost a lot of valuable time and the lack of action over the last 2 weeks will have huge implications over the next 2-3 weeks. A tsunami is now probably heading for NHS ICUs and we can do nothing to stop it. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


This is what the modelling team behind the 'herd immunity strategy' is now saying (realtime ICU demand is double what they were predicting before and we should be doing what Europe is doing):



  • Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence

  • We now find that school and university closure is a more effective strategy to support epidemic suppression than mitigation; when combined with population-wide social distancing, the effect of  school closure is to further amplify the breaking of social contacts between households, and thus suppress transmission.

  • Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over.

  • In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

  • In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.


Oh Dio mio.


 

CreweCold
17 March 2020 01:55:21


 


This is what the modelling team behind the 'herd immunity strategy' is now saying (realtime ICU demand is double what they were predicting before and we should be doing what Europe is doing)


Oh Dio mio.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


They only had to look at what has been unfolding in other countries to realise their 'plan' was absolutely ridiculous. It really did not require Einstein to work it out.


Quite what these guys get paid for baffles me. If the average guy on a weather forum can figure it out and see the pitfalls then why can't highly paid 'experts'?



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
xioni2
17 March 2020 02:09:13


They only had to look at what has been unfolding in other countries to realise their 'plan' was absolutely ridiculous. It really did not require Einstein to work it out.


Quite what these guys get paid for baffles me. If the average guy on a weather forum can figure it out and see the pitfalls then why can't highly paid 'experts'?


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I agree but the govt is also responsible as the ultimate decision maker (and I am not saying this because I don't like Boris). We shouldn't lose any more time now, the decisions taken every day will have a big impact on what happens in the ICUs 2-3 weeks down the road.


Similarly to Europe, the govt should shut down almost everything as quickly as possible and ask people to stay at home.


People who read this thread should stop seeing loved ones who are elderly or with underlying conditions and should try to stay at home as much as possible.


 


 

xioni2
17 March 2020 03:48:16

  • Belgium, Luxemburg, California, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts and Washington are initiating shut downs

  • Ohio Democratic primary cancelled at the last minute

  • The government of Singapore has accused the UK of undermining the global response to the pandemic and urged it to switch back to a containment strategy

  • China national football league to restart on 18 April with spectators (!);

  • China opens hospital for quarantining of foreign visitors from infected countries

Retron
17 March 2020 04:33:48


They really need to shut schools asap. 1000s of children infecting each other every day. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


...and the staff, of course. I really don't get why they don't just close the damned things ASAP.


I actually had a colleague of mine who's mentioned quitting to save his mum (he still lives with her, but he thinks we don't know as he finds it embarrasing. His mum is in her mid-70s with a long list of serious medical conditions - he is, in effect, her carer).


(There seems to be a feeling that perhaps, just maybe, they can drag this out for 2 more weeks and make it to the Easter holidays. The trouble with that is by then almost certainly most schools will have enough staff self-isolating that normal teaching will be impossible anyway - teachers and support staff aren't immune from picking up bugs in general. Not to mention by then at least another order of magnitude of cases will have happened, turning it from a "you probably don't know anyone with it" to "it's reasonably likely you do" thing.


It's laughable, really. The government guidance discourages me from going round a friend's house at the weekend, but I still go into a school in close proximity with 1700 children and 200 other adults each day!)


Leysdown, north Kent
Justin W
17 March 2020 05:10:14


This is absolutely, gut-wrenching awful:



  • "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

  • "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

  • A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely".

  • It requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members"


If this is true, then the UK has lost a lot of valuable time and the lack of action over the last 2 weeks will have huge implications over the next 2-3 weeks. A tsunami is now probably heading for NHS ICUs and we can do nothing to stop it.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


But the voices of reason here were telling us to be quiet and trust HMG and its scientists. We were told we were being ‘hysterical’


 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Justin W
17 March 2020 05:13:05

Some of us have been saying for weeks that a monumental debacle is coming in the UK. This is it.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Heavy Weather 2013
17 March 2020 06:05:51
Two people on my Facebook went out last night one to a pub and one to a club. I’ve called out there irresponsible actions.

This is the problem. People are still no adhering.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am struggling to sleep properly at the moment. Waking at random hours.

I wonder today how many teachers will turn up to work. I suspect that school closures will talked about a lot today.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
17 March 2020 06:12:03

You can see where this is going and its pretty much when and not if schools close so they should just get on with it.
I’m a little concerned about the ‘woolly’ stance on pubs and clubs as giving the public the responsibility to make the right decision hadn’t always been too clever. It’s almost as if HMG are disguising deferred culpability as the actions of a true liberal democracy.

Maybe as far as our government is concerned we should care less about democracy and demand action that will keep more of us alive.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
SJV
17 March 2020 06:29:37

Two people on my Facebook went out last night one to a pub and one to a club. I’ve called out there irresponsible actions.

This is the problem. People are still no adhering.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am struggling to sleep properly at the moment. Waking at random hours.

I wonder today how many teachers will turn up to work. I suspect that school closures will talked about a lot today.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I've had a poor nights sleep as well. I'll let you know later how the mood of our school is. Two staff off yesterday (all week).


 

Gooner
17 March 2020 06:29:40


 


...and the staff, of course. I really don't get why they don't just close the damned things ASAP.


I actually had a colleague of mine who's mentioned quitting to save his mum (he still lives with her, but he thinks we don't know as he finds it embarrasing. His mum is in her mid-70s with a long list of serious medical conditions - he is, in effect, her carer).


(There seems to be a feeling that perhaps, just maybe, they can drag this out for 2 more weeks and make it to the Easter holidays. The trouble with that is by then almost certainly most schools will have enough staff self-isolating that normal teaching will be impossible anyway - teachers and support staff aren't immune from picking up bugs in general. Not to mention by then at least another order of magnitude of cases will have happened, turning it from a "you probably don't know anyone with it" to "it's reasonably likely you do" thing.


It's laughable, really. The government guidance discourages me from going round a friend's house at the weekend, but I still go into a school in close proximity with 1700 children and 200 other adults each day!)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


This is the bit I don't get , you are right though they are desperately trying to get to Easter with this but then what ?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 March 2020 06:32:02

Two people on my Facebook went out last night one to a pub and one to a club. I’ve called out there irresponsible actions.

This is the problem. People are still no adhering.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am struggling to sleep properly at the moment. Waking at random hours.

I wonder today how many teachers will turn up to work. I suspect that school closures will talked about a lot today.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I listened to a Radio report this morning , they interviewed two guys in Oxford , they were carrying on regardless 


 


A girl around the corner runs a snooker hall , they are staying open because ……………………………...people stand 12 ft apart around a table WTF 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 March 2020 06:34:47


You can see where this is going and its pretty much when and not if schools close so they should just get on with it.
I’m a little concerned about the ‘woolly’ stance on pubs and clubs as giving the public the responsibility to make the right decision hadn’t always been too clever. It’s almost as if HMG are disguising deferred culpability as the actions of a true liberal democracy.

Maybe as far as our government is concerned we should care less about democracy and demand action that will keep more of us alive.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


exactly that Neil , it wont work if people think the public wont go out ( not saying all ) then they are blinkered and live in a lovely world , sitting in a meadow with Julie Andrews singing the sound of music 24c and lambs skipping about , the world isn't like that 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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