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Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 09:51:20


 


20-30% of them, with a lack of clarity over whether the impacts are long-term, according to what I've seen.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


We are in uncharted territory - all of us in all countries.

New world order coming.
westv
17 March 2020 09:52:37

Why to celebs need to tell us they are infected?

At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
17 March 2020 09:52:46


Our offices are now closed officially until further notice.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The offices of the property company we use to manage our block of flats has closed this morning. Apparently a middle aged member of staff is very ill. No idea whether there are underlying medical conditions.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
17 March 2020 09:53:55


Why to celebs need to tell us they are infected?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Agree. At the moment it's positive because people like Arteta and Hanks are saying they have recovered. The problems will start when a high profile one drops dead. It will happen sooner or later.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 09:54:56


Why to celebs need to tell us they are infected?


Originally Posted by: westv 


It is what celebs do - their whole life is "Look at me" - but they then get cross when the "look at me" gets too intrusive, so it becomes "look at me on my terms".


They have fluff instead of brains, most of them.

New world order coming.
Gooner
17 March 2020 09:55:22


 


You're lucky. Not my 2 (girls 13 and 10) who only want to hang out with their mates.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Oh don't get me wrong two of my three are girls and that can be a battle but generally very good 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Northern Sky
17 March 2020 10:06:08

My son is excellent at self isolating in the house - as long as his x box works he'll be fine. 

NickR
17 March 2020 10:23:23
This is superb. A brilliant, accessible, fully evidence-based account of the nature of covid-19, where we went wrong, and what must be done.


https://unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/ 
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 10:24:38

Sorry if this has been posted here previously, but here is a scholarly article on the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic:


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/


Some interesting perspectives there, one being that as the virus mutated it eventually became less lethal - we have no idea whether that will apply to COVID-19 at this stage.


 

New world order coming.
doctormog
17 March 2020 10:28:53


 


I'll allow myself a sightly tongue in cheek reply, DrM. You'd better bear in mind I am midway through Robert Plomin's intriguing "Blueprint". I suspect we all know the limitations of the UK's exam industry. Some may even know Plomin's take on heritability.



  1. We pass all this cohort of pupils/students "Aegrotat".

  2. All pupil applications for jobs/further study will be given a supporting letter of confirmation from school/college that the student is at an appropriate level to proceed.

  3. We then sit back and see it this proves a better way to approach validation of educational achievement. It just might be. The spotlight will be on the schools and colleges to do a good job of assessment. Cheap too. And undeniably more hygienic! Plomin would love such data.


Roger


p.s. ...and school letters of confirmation could be done on line from home....


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



Thanks Roger for answering the question I was asking rather than reacting with kneejerk outrage and missing the point entirely.


We need to make plans for other issues and people should not react with unthinking hostility to such suggestions. Whatever happened to keep calm and carry on? 


We can be sensible and follow best practice without running around like headless chickens. Thinking about kids' education does not equate to prioritising it over people's health. It's not a difficult concept.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
17 March 2020 10:30:13
I hear some British tourists have been causing trouble in Spain. If true I hope the Spanish authorities lock them up and throw away the key.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
17 March 2020 10:33:51

I hear some British tourists have been causing trouble in Spain. If true I hope the Spanish authorities lock them up and throw away the key.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agreed - I heard the same.


This is why the softly approach to bars and clubs wont work. I can almost say for certain that if nothing is enforced by this weekend - these establishments will be heaving.


Only yesterday - Mason Mount a Chelsea player, was seen playing five aside - this is despite him being required to self isolate. He is a role model. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
NickR
17 March 2020 10:35:20
Good news!

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1239697605606682626?s=19 

Take away (following the thread); this CAN be stopped and the claim that 60-80% of us WILL get it was and is completely egregious.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Heavy Weather 2013
17 March 2020 10:35:25

Breaking: Odeon Cinemas have closed down across the UK until further notice.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
17 March 2020 10:35:25


 


Agreed - I heard the same.


This is why the softly approach to bars and clubs wont work. I can almost say for certain that if nothing is enforced by this weekend - these establishments will be heaving.


Only yesterday - Mason Mount a Chelsea player, was seen playing five aside - this is despite him being required to self isolate. He is a role model. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Agreed some are just morons and ignorant and DO NOT understand 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 March 2020 10:38:24

This is superb. A brilliant, accessible, fully evidence-based account of the nature of covid-19, where we went wrong, and what must be done.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

">https://unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/


Out of date already as it suggests we can still contain the spread.


This quote from the article, One question you may be wondering about at this point is how the government’s models diverged from the estimates made by epidemiologists and reality so quickly.  confirms my opinion that modelling is really guessing with numbers attached

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 10:39:22

This is superb. A brilliant, accessible, fully evidence-based account of the nature of covid-19, where we went wrong, and what must be done.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

">https://unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/


Part of the bad news in that report:


"...


the influenza virus mutates rapidly, which is why WHO recommends three vaccine formulations that are produced every year, each containing vaccines for 3-4 strains. In comparison, COVID-19 and coronaviruses in general mutate relatively slowly, explains Trevor Bedford, scientist-developer of the platform Nextstrain, which has tracked mutations in the virus since the first genomes were published. 


..."


The piece I linked to on the 1918 pandemic was clear that virus mutation helped to eventually blunt the severity of the virus. Looks as though we cannot rely on a similar effect with COVID-19 - that really does mean that an effective and mass available vaccine is the only long term solution.


 

New world order coming.
NickR
17 March 2020 10:40:06
Problem is... we as a country are just not doing what we need to do. The answer is clear, and we're ignoring it:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1239861213229723649?s=19 
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Rob K
17 March 2020 10:40:10


Why to celebs need to tell us they are infected?


Originally Posted by: westv 


I think it might help the social media generation understand that this is real if people they follow/look up to go down with the disease. There’s enough crap circulating about how it’s all a ploy to impose martial law etc etc. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
haggishunter
17 March 2020 10:40:59


It will be the behaviour of these people which will guarantee the introduction of much more stringent restrictions which will be backed by the force of law.


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I’d welcome that outcome because what Boris did yesterday was basically evil, through vast sector of the economy to the wolves to protect the insurance industry and Lloyd’s of London.


So many businesses will continue to trade until the state acts because basically they have no option, they have a duty of care to their staff to avoid just collapsing and leaving staff with unpaid pay and no money going into this sh!te show. What the UK govt did yesterday was leave them in limbo, hoping to shame businesses into voluntarily ceasing trading to avoid govt liability for mandating it and also avoiding triggering loss of earnings insurance for many affected businesses.


There is also the case of both mental and physical health issues that will increasingly arise from a sustained period. The idea that isolation could be maintained be for 18months as is being suggested as needed by Imperial College is just untenable. Food doesn’t just magic itself into supermarkets!


 

NickR
17 March 2020 10:42:04


 


Part of the bad news in that report:


"...


the influenza virus mutates rapidly, which is why WHO recommends three vaccine formulations that are produced every year, each containing vaccines for 3-4 strains. In comparison, COVID-19 and coronaviruses in general mutate relatively slowly, explains Trevor Bedford, scientist-developer of the platform Nextstrain, which has tracked mutations in the virus since the first genomes were published. 


..."


The piece I linked to on the 1918 pandemic was clear that virus mutation helped to eventually blunt the severity of the virus. Looks as though we cannot rely on a similar effect with COVID-19 - that really does mean that an effective and mass available vaccine is the only long term solution.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It means a vaccine should be easier.


All the evidence from China, SK, and now Italy shows lockdown slows and even halts the virus. Yet we seem to be ignoring that evidence.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gooner
17 March 2020 10:42:12

Problem is... we as a country are just not doing what we need to do. The answer is clear, and we're ignoring it:

Originally Posted by: NickR 

">https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1239861213229723649?s=19



Again sorry to sound boring but I said this yesterday , we ( as a nation ) will ignore it , total naivety from Boris  

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Darren S
17 March 2020 10:42:54

I hear some British tourists have been causing trouble in Spain. If true I hope the Spanish authorities lock them up and throw away the key.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Here is an example:


https://www.facebook.com/dave.leigh.5/videos/3085981398090372/


 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
NickR
17 March 2020 10:45:10


 


Out of date already as it suggests we can still contain the spread.


This quote from the article, One question you may be wondering about at this point is how the government’s models diverged from the estimates made by epidemiologists and reality so quickly.  confirms my opinion that modelling is really guessing with numbers attached


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Look at Wuhan, SK, and the latest numbers from Italy. The spread can still be contained.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Rob K
17 March 2020 10:47:46


 


Here is an example:


https://www.facebook.com/dave.leigh.5/videos/3085981398090372/


 


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Link not working for me. 


By the way what are people’s thoughts on getting out and about for exercise? Government advice seems to be that it’s ok but you should keep your distance. I am planning to take advantage of the dry weather to get out on my bike today. I’ll be on quiet roads and paths and am unlikely to have any close contact with anyone else, so I would hope there is no harm in it. The mental and physical risks of being shut inside with no fresh air and exercise have to be taken into account. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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