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westv
17 March 2020 10:54:37

Government advice is to avoid social gatherings, it isn't to avoid going out at all.

At least it will be mild!
Northern Sky
17 March 2020 10:54:41


 


Link not working for me. 


By the way what are people’s thoughts on getting out and about for exercise? Government advice seems to be that it’s ok but you should keep your distance. I am planning to take advantage of the dry weather to get out on my bike today. I’ll be on quiet roads and paths and am unlikely to have any close contact with anyone else, so I would hope there is no harm in it. The mental and physical risks of being shut inside with no fresh air and exercise have to be taken into account. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


While we are still able I'll definitely be getting out and about in the countryside. Keep your distance from people and you and they will be fine. Easier for some than others I admit. 

Gavin D
17 March 2020 10:57:00
Retailer Laura Ashley is entering administration and is suspending trading following the coronavirus outbreak
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:01:06

I hear some British tourists have been causing trouble in Spain. If true I hope the Spanish authorities lock them up and throw away the key.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Brexit voters?

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 11:01:26


 


While we are still able I'll definitely be getting out and about in the countryside. Keep your distance from people and you and they will be fine. Easier for some than others I admit. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Even the French authorities are still allowing people to go outside to exercise - but there is a form to fill in:


"Under the new French decree to stay at home, coming into effect shortly at 12:00 local time (11:00 GMT) on Tuesday, citizens will need to justify their movements.


A form has been created which they should carry when out and about, and on which the reasons for travel can be ticked. They are:



  • Commuting to work where working at home is not possible

  • Trips to authorised shops for necessities

  • Travel for health reasons

  • Travel for urgent family reasons, to help the vulnerable or for childcare

  • Brief trips close to home for exercise on an individual basis and/or to exercise pets"


How they define "close to home" I don't know.

New world order coming.
Quantum
17 March 2020 11:01:48


Why the situation is so dire. This is a US model projection (but expect something similar with the UK). Y axis is critical care beds. Red line is capacity.


 


If we do nothing we end up with the black line. d*cked over in the short term.


Orange is a moderately severe lockdown type scenario. Delays it until next winter but it still happens.


Green is the most severe lockdown scenario. Virus almost completely supressed but the 2nd wave is almost as bad as if we were to do nothing.


 


And the economic consequences of Orange and then Green will also cause deaths, and sustainning such an extreme lockdown over so many months risks societal collapse and no actual  prevention of an overwhelmed health service.


This is the dire choice the UK scientific advisers were forced into.


 


Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:02:08

Retailer Laura Ashley is entering administration and is suspending trading following the coronavirus outbreak

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Sunak will bail them out?


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Rob K
17 March 2020 11:04:08

Retailer Laura Ashley is entering administration and is suspending trading following the coronavirus outbreak

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Laura Ashley was already in big trouble. I think it would have gone under with or without the virus. 


However you have to wonder what our high streets will look like in a year. They were dying anyway but this crisis could just wipe them out in one fell swoop. I’ve been saying for a long time that councils ought to be rezoning shops for residential use in town centres. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JHutch
17 March 2020 11:04:08


 


Link not working for me. 


By the way what are people’s thoughts on getting out and about for exercise? Government advice seems to be that it’s ok but you should keep your distance. I am planning to take advantage of the dry weather to get out on my bike today. I’ll be on quiet roads and paths and am unlikely to have any close contact with anyone else, so I would hope there is no harm in it. The mental and physical risks of being shut inside with no fresh air and exercise have to be taken into account. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Banned in Italy and Spain for the moment. Sounds like France may be the same (edit, see Maunder's post). I don't think there has been any mention of it here though.


cycling.today/italy-and-spain-ban-cycling-completely


https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1239655933141225472

JHutch
17 March 2020 11:05:48


 


Even the French authorities are still allowing people to go outside to exercise - but there is a form to fill in:


"Under the new French decree to stay at home, coming into effect shortly at 12:00 local time (11:00 GMT) on Tuesday, citizens will need to justify their movements.


A form has been created which they should carry when out and about, and on which the reasons for travel can be ticked. They are:



  • Commuting to work where working at home is not possible

  • Trips to authorised shops for necessities

  • Travel for health reasons

  • Travel for urgent family reasons, to help the vulnerable or for childcare

  • Brief trips close to home for exercise on an individual basis and/or to exercise pets"


How they define "close to home" I don't know.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Would like to know the definition of 'brief' too. For some people I know that could be a couple of hours.

Quantum
17 March 2020 11:05:56


 


Banned in Italy and Spain for the moment. Sounds like France may be the same. I don't think there has been any mention of it here though.


cycling.today/italy-and-spain-ban-cycling-completely


https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1239655933141225472


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Great, going to have to do yard runs then. Feet seem to be callusing up though. But wonder if all the sharp turns are going to result in some kind of injury.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
NickR
17 March 2020 11:06:07



Why the situation is so dire. This is a US model projection (but expect something similar with the UK). Y axis is critical care beds. Red line is capacity.


 


If we do nothing we end up with the black line. d*cked over in the short term.


Orange is a moderately severe lockdown type scenario. Delays it until next winter but it still happens.


Green is the most severe lockdown scenario. Virus almost completely supressed but the 2nd wave is almost as bad as if we were to do nothing.


 


And the economic consequences of Orange and then Green will also cause deaths, and sustainning such an extreme lockdown over so many months risks societal collapse and no actual  prevention of an overwhelmed health service.


This is the dire choice the UK scientific advisers were forced into.


 


Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Suppress now. Buy time. 2nd wave hasn't happened yet. Build up ICU capacity. Introduce SK-style, non-lockdown methods which appear to be working.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:07:38


 


Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


My preferred option, I think its pointless doing total lockdown now as the virus is so embedded


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
NickR
17 March 2020 11:08:26


 


My preferred option, I think its pointless doing total lockdown now as the virus is so embedded


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Wuhan, SK, and Italy say you are wrong.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:09:54


 


Banned in Italy and Spain for the moment. Sounds like France may be the same (edit, see Maunder's post). I don't think there has been any mention of it here though.


cycling.today/italy-and-spain-ban-cycling-completely


https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1239655933141225472


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Nothing is going to stop me going out when I want. You never see a copper round here anyway. When my cars got broken into last Summer outside my house, the coppers never came even though I got them on camera


Why should I comply with the law if the law doesn't protect me?


 


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Quantum
17 March 2020 11:11:09


 


Suppress now. Buy time. 2nd wave hasn't happened yet. Build up ICU capacity. Introduce SK-style, non-lockdown methods which appear to be working.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


We can't do SK because SK was not nationwide and they had absolute technological and infrastructure superiority. Don't forget our testing capacity is already amongst the highest in Europe. We don't have the resources to jack it up to the level needed to achive SK levels across the entire country.


We can do Wuhan though, but we would have to do it on a nationwide scale so it would be worse.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:11:23


 


Wuhan, SK, and Italy say you are wrong.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Lots of people are still dying in Italy despite the lockdown


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
nsrobins
17 March 2020 11:13:57
Major UK airports asking for ‘emergency’ financial support. Airports will have to shut down within weeks without assistance.

I wonder how much money is available for all this, or do we just borrow against future recovery. It’s a war time situation that needs firm government intervention now.

And talking of war - isn’t this an opportunity some states might take to steal a country or two? Not seen much commentary on the risk of military activity.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
17 March 2020 11:15:53


 


Nothing is going to stop me going out when I want. You never see a copper round here anyway. When my cars got broken into last Summer outside my house, the coppers never came even though I got them on camera


Why should I comply with the law if the law doesn't protect me?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Fortunately you’re in a very small minority with this one - but maybe you’d prefer a complete breakdown of law and order to prove a point?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Justin W
17 March 2020 11:16:33

Major UK airports asking for ‘emergency’ financial support. Airports will have to shut down within weeks without assistance.

I wonder how much money is available for all this, or do we just borrow against future recovery. It’s a war time situation that needs firm government intervention now.

And talking of war - isn’t this an opportunity some states might take to steal a country or two? Not seen much commentary on the risk of military activity.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It will be another form of quantitative easing - the metaphorical presses will be fired up. We will need up to £1 trillion I would imagine. The Govt will also nationalise large parts of the economy. Everything is going to look very different.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
John p
17 March 2020 11:17:19

Major UK airports asking for ‘emergency’ financial support. Airports will have to shut down within weeks without assistance.

I wonder how much money is available for all this, or do we just borrow against future recovery. It’s a war time situation that needs firm government intervention now.

And talking of war - isn’t this an opportunity some states might take to steal a country or two? Not seen much commentary on the risk of military activity.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Brian mentioned your final point the other day.  Don’t be surprised to see Fat Kim perform some missile ‘testing’ shortly.

Camberley, Surrey
Quantum
17 March 2020 11:17:52


 


Nothing is going to stop me going out when I want. You never see a copper round here anyway. When my cars got broken into last Summer outside my house, the coppers never came even though I got them on camera


Why should I comply with the law if the law doesn't protect me?


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Because you are endangering other people by prioritzing your own personal freedom over society.


If the official advice is not to go outside, then don't go outside. It's that simple.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Gavin D
17 March 2020 11:18:14
China have reported 21 new confirmed cases & 13 new deaths (12 in Hubei, and 1 in Shaanxi) with 45 suspected cases.

930 further patients were discharged from hospital whilst 1,105 close contacts were released from self-isolation
Maunder Minimum
17 March 2020 11:19:38


 


Wuhan, SK, and Italy say you are wrong.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Actually, they don't - we won't be clear on what was the best strategy for another 12 months. You cannot take short term results for the result.


P.S. Spanish figures are alarming - full Italy now. Why on earth we allowed the supporters of Atletico Madrid to come to Liverpool the other week is beyond me - I wrote to my MP the week prior to that match, urging for that not to happen, but I also had emailed her requesting a suspension of regular flights to Italy as well. The politicians did not want to listen for some reason - Panglossian.

New world order coming.
John p
17 March 2020 11:20:14


 


Lots of people are still dying in Italy despite the lockdown


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


That’s because of the lag time.  It is expected to slow down shortly.

Camberley, Surrey

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