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Heavy Weather 2013
17 March 2020 11:40:14

Horrendous. Taken from Sky News.


An Italian surgeon working on the frontline in Lombardy tells me they’re running out of oxygen, protective equipment and staff.

Some of his own colleagues are now patients in ICU.

I wished him well at the end of our call and he said “good luck to you too, because it’s coming”


Our government need to wake up NOW.


Re: Social gatherings.


We also need to remember that 30-60 YO range DO get the virus and some DO end up in ICU. Carelessness within this age group could easily deny some older and more vulnerable patients a ventiltor.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
17 March 2020 11:40:32


 


You mean Michael


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Yes. Sorry Michael. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
speckledjim
17 March 2020 11:40:48

Spain's morning update has reported 1,236 new cases and 149 new deaths.

11,178 confirmed cases and 491 deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


And Madrid continues to have close to half of all cases

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:40:55


 


So all the hopes now rest on a vacinne being developed before society crumbles under this lockdown, and it will eventually. This cannot be sustained indefinitely.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


People will break the lockdown after a few months anyway. Its not sustainable long term unless you live in a country like China


The Italians, French and Spaniards are non compliant cultures at the best of times


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arcus
17 March 2020 11:41:26



Why the situation is so dire. This is a US model projection (but expect something similar with the UK). Y axis is critical care beds. Red line is capacity.


 


If we do nothing we end up with the black line. d*cked over in the short term.


Orange is a moderately severe lockdown type scenario. Delays it until next winter but it still happens.


Green is the most severe lockdown scenario. Virus almost completely supressed but the 2nd wave is almost as bad as if we were to do nothing.


 


And the economic consequences of Orange and then Green will also cause deaths, and sustainning such an extreme lockdown over so many months risks societal collapse and no actual  prevention of an overwhelmed health service.


This is the dire choice the UK scientific advisers were forced into.


 


Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Good post Q. 


If you accept a vaccine is unlikely to be widely available in the next 18 months then it's clear there are no easy choices in this.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
xioni2
17 March 2020 11:44:09


Nice soundbite, but a breakdown of the economy will almost certainly lead to more loss of life and hardship in the medium term than Co-19.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It's not a soundbite, you can never take a conscious decision to let hundreds of thousands of people (or even more) to die in the name of protecting the economy. There are many things governments can do to protect the incomes of people and protect businesses too.


I agree with you that shutdowns are unsustainable in the long term and they are a desperate measure, but perhaps they can be used at will to reduce the successive surges/peaks until a vaccination is found.

The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:44:53

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
17 March 2020 11:45:09


 


Anyone still think the WHO made the right call back in January wrt travel in and out of China?


Originally Posted by: bowser 


The virus was already beyond China in December.  As soon as the first cases were identified it was, as has since been demonstrated, already in circulation and people were moving out of Wuhan across China and internationally.


Apart from that the WHO can only advise; its for individual countries to determine the appropriate measures.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
17 March 2020 11:46:16


Horrendous. Taken from Sky News.


An Italian surgeon working on the frontline in Lombardy tells me they’re running out of oxygen, protective equipment and staff.

Some of his own colleagues are now patients in ICU.

I wished him well at the end of our call and he said “good luck to you too, because it’s coming”


Our government need to wake up NOW.


Re: Social gatherings.


We also need to remember that 30-60 YO range DO get the virus and some DO end up in ICU. Carelessness within this age group could easily deny some older and more vulnerable patients a ventiltor.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Noooooooooooooooo really ?? Thought it was just the vulnerable 


 


Just pointing out to some 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
17 March 2020 11:50:07

The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.


The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip


And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.


Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:50:20

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 11:52:43


The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.


The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip


And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.


Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I think this is what Cummings wanted from the start, but public opinion has forced their hand, but still only halfway lockdown which is pointless

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
warrenb
17 March 2020 11:53:39




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I suspect by the end of this we are all going to have our own stories to tell.


One solution would be to freeze the economy where it is, and go onto a war footing, then return back to this point when it is over. 

Tonbridge 45m 
Justin W
17 March 2020 11:54:13


The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.


The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip


And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.


Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yeah. Let ‘em die. Old w4ankers. So you can have a normal summer.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Saint Snow
17 March 2020 11:54:38




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Can't face that. 


This overall situation is horrendous and it's a struggle to cope.


There are no right answers. Every choice seemingly leads to catastrophe.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
xioni2
17 March 2020 11:56:05


The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.


The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip


And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.


Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It does feel awful. Accepting 250k+ deaths however could also huge impacts on society, WWII here had ~60k deaths of civilians.


Also let's say we 'let it rip':



  • our economy will suffer anyway from the periodic shutdowns in other economies

  • the rest of the world will probably shut us off, which again will harm our economy.


It's just not viable.


 


 

Gooner
17 March 2020 11:57:54


 


Yeah. Let ‘em die. Old w4ankers. So you can have a normal summer.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 



 


I shouldn't laugh 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
17 March 2020 12:01:13


 


Yeah. Let ‘em die. Old w4ankers. So you can have a normal summer.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


Or walk into an economic collapse and societal meltdown.


If we fell into the biggest economic depression in history, how well do you think a bankrupt NHS and the care system would cope? How many deaths - of all ages - would that lead to? The impacts of malnutrition? Crime? 


The 2-year old girl discussed on LBC... would she get the 27 weeks of chemo and the aftercare required anyway if we'd economically collapsed?


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Arcus
17 March 2020 12:01:50


 


 


Can't face that. 


This overall situation is horrendous and it's a struggle to cope.


There are no right answers. Every choice seemingly leads to catastrophe.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


As MM mentioned earlier, the development of the antibody test is crucial IMO. No-one knows how many have been infected worldwide when current testing only identifies those that currently have it.


The ability to come out of restrictions will depend upon the vulnerability of the population to recurring waves. Knowing how many are antibody positive will help in that process (although there are clearly caveats on that as our understanding of the virus improves).

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
speckledjim
17 March 2020 12:02:30
In the last hour 3 of my localish schools are partially closing. They are trying to remain open as much as possible for year 11 and 13.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
17 March 2020 12:03:26


 


As MM mentioned earlier, the development of the antibody test is crucial IMO. No-one knows how many have been infected worldwide when current testing only identifies those that currently have it.


The ability to come out of restrictions will depend upon the vulnerability of the population to recurring waves. Knowing how many are antibody positive will help in that process (although there are clearly caveats on that as our understanding of the virus improves).


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Yes, excellent point.


Once developed, it needs to be widely available. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
17 March 2020 12:04:29

In the last hour 3 of my localish schools are partially closing. They are trying to remain open as much as possible for year 11 and 13.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


Keeping them open for yrs 11 & 13 would be sensible. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
17 March 2020 12:04:40


 


 


Or walk into an economic collapse and societal meltdown.


If we fell into the biggest economic depression in history, how well do you think a bankrupt NHS and the care system would cope? How many deaths - of all ages - would that lead to? The impacts of malnutrition? Crime? 


The 2-year old girl discussed on LBC... would she get the 27 weeks of chemo and the aftercare required anyway if we'd economically collapsed?


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Don't forget we also have a no deal Brexit a few months away!


But that's what the plebs voted for. Make themselves poorer to see a few less foreigners


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
17 March 2020 12:05:15


Can't face that. 


This overall situation is horrendous and it's a struggle to cope.


There are no right answers. Every choice seemingly leads to catastrophe.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, but we can only stay rational and try our best. Look at Italy, their economy hasn't collapsed yet, people are working from home, factories still open with special measures. They now expect their number of deaths to start falling next week and at some point they will relax the lockdown and try aggressive virus test and trace.


China will restart its football league with fans allowed!


 

Saint Snow
17 March 2020 12:06:16


 


Yes, but we can only stay rational and try our best. Look at Italy, their economy hasn't collapsed yet, people are working from home, factories still open with special measures. They now expect their number of deaths to start falling next week and at some point they will relax the lockdown and try aggressive virus test and trace.


China will restart its football league with fans allowed!


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


I think this thread is bad for my mental health. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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