You mean Michael

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Spain's morning update has reported 1,236 new cases and 149 new deaths.

11,178 confirmed cases and 491 deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

So all the hopes now rest on a vacinne being developed before society crumbles under this lockdown, and it will eventually. This cannot be sustained indefinitely.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Why the situation is so dire. This is a US model projection (but expect something similar with the UK). Y axis is critical care beds. Red line is capacity.

If we do nothing we end up with the black line. d*cked over in the short term.

Orange is a moderately severe lockdown type scenario. Delays it until next winter but it still happens.

Green is the most severe lockdown scenario. Virus almost completely supressed but the 2nd wave is almost as bad as if we were to do nothing.

And the economic consequences of Orange and then Green will also cause deaths, and sustainning such an extreme lockdown over so many months risks societal collapse and no actual  prevention of an overwhelmed health service.

This is the dire choice the UK scientific advisers were forced into.

Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Nice soundbite, but a breakdown of the economy will almost certainly lead to more loss of life and hardship in the medium term than Co-19.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Anyone still think the WHO made the right call back in January wrt travel in and out of China?

Originally Posted by: bowser 

Horrendous. Taken from Sky News.

An Italian surgeon working on the frontline in Lombardy tells me they’re running out of oxygen, protective equipment and staff.

Some of his own colleagues are now patients in ICU.

I wished him well at the end of our call and he said “good luck to you too, because it’s coming”

Our government need to wake up NOW.

Re: Social gatherings.

We also need to remember that 30-60 YO range DO get the virus and some DO end up in ICU. Carelessness within this age group could easily deny some older and more vulnerable patients a ventiltor.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.

The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip

And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.

Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

This heartbreaking coronavirus call to James O'Brien really touched the LBC listeners and put our current worries in perspective.@mrjamesob | #covidー19uk https://t.co/YCAMfXXzHe

— LBC (@LBC) March 17, 2020

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.

The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip

And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.

Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

This heartbreaking coronavirus call to James O'Brien really touched the LBC listeners and put our current worries in perspective.@mrjamesob | #covidー19uk https://t.co/YCAMfXXzHe

— LBC (@LBC) March 17, 2020

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The thought of this turmoil lasting 12+ months chills me to the bone.

The societal and economic consequences would make the Great Depression seem like a blip

And millions would likely die in the aftermath due to poverty, hardship and the breakdown of state support systems.

Is there not an argument for letting this rip, accepting 250k+ deaths, and getting back to normal by mid-summer?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yeah. Let ‘em die. Old w4ankers. So you can have a normal summer.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Yeah. Let ‘em die. Old w4ankers. So you can have a normal summer.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Can't face that. 

This overall situation is horrendous and it's a struggle to cope.

There are no right answers. Every choice seemingly leads to catastrophe.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

As MM mentioned earlier, the development of the antibody test is crucial IMO. No-one knows how many have been infected worldwide when current testing only identifies those that currently have it.

The ability to come out of restrictions will depend upon the vulnerability of the population to recurring waves. Knowing how many are antibody positive will help in that process (although there are clearly caveats on that as our understanding of the virus improves).

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

In the last hour 3 of my localish schools are partially closing. They are trying to remain open as much as possible for year 11 and 13.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Or walk into an economic collapse and societal meltdown.

If we fell into the biggest economic depression in history, how well do you think a bankrupt NHS and the care system would cope? How many deaths - of all ages - would that lead to? The impacts of malnutrition? Crime? 

The 2-year old girl discussed on LBC... would she get the 27 weeks of chemo and the aftercare required anyway if we'd economically collapsed?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Can't face that. 

This overall situation is horrendous and it's a struggle to cope.

There are no right answers. Every choice seemingly leads to catastrophe.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yes, but we can only stay rational and try our best. Look at Italy, their economy hasn't collapsed yet, people are working from home, factories still open with special measures. They now expect their number of deaths to start falling next week and at some point they will relax the lockdown and try aggressive virus test and trace.

China will restart its football league with fans allowed!

Originally Posted by: xioni2