Why the situation is so dire. This is a US model projection (but expect something similar with the UK). Y axis is critical care beds. Red line is capacity.
If we do nothing we end up with the black line. d*cked over in the short term.
Orange is a moderately severe lockdown type scenario. Delays it until next winter but it still happens.
Green is the most severe lockdown scenario. Virus almost completely supressed but the 2nd wave is almost as bad as if we were to do nothing.
And the economic consequences of Orange and then Green will also cause deaths, and sustainning such an extreme lockdown over so many months risks societal collapse and no actual prevention of an overwhelmed health service.
This is the dire choice the UK scientific advisers were forced into.
Because we did nothing in January we now have two choices. Bite the bullet and accept catostrophic losses on a WW2 scale and have this finished by the end of summer, or lockdown for months and risk the exact same thing happen anyway while hoping for a cure/vaccine to come along during that time.
Originally Posted by: Quantum