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Quantum
20 March 2020 13:15:16


 


I am surprised you posted that Tweet Brian, it is beneath contempt that people are posting such trash on Twitter.


Anyhow, on the oscillation of measures - more details on World at One - they will be doing this on a regional basis, with powers devolved so that clamp downs are implemented when and where required - for example the Mayor of London could clamp down, whilst Berkshire does not, depending on contagion and hospitalisation rates.


Sounds like a flexible and considered approach.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It's a good idea. Flatten the curve in both time and space. If London gets hit first then the rest of the UK can balance the load out by evacuating some of it's patients. And the reverse can happen on the other side of the peak.


Time to quarantine the entirety of London.


 


Also we need to gamify this. Bring out some kind of mobile app where people gain points (that can be exchanged for currency) for behaving in a socially responsible manner.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
20 March 2020 13:15:23


SAGE says social distancing restrictions will have to be used on and off for at least 12 months


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Idiots. What do they know? Boris told us 12 weeks yesterday.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
20 March 2020 13:15:48


 


An abject post.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I am glad you agree the original Tweet was a disgrace.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
20 March 2020 13:16:12




Well it has been pointed out that the diarrhea and vomiting may just be signs you ate a dodgy pangolin


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
20 March 2020 13:16:58


 


I am glad you agree the original Tweet was a disgrace.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The original tweet was bang on the money. Martin's behaviour and insouciance over the welfare of our vulnerable people is beneath contempt.


I hope Wetherspoon's suffers death by a thousand cuts.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Maunder Minimum
20 March 2020 13:20:21


 


The original tweet was bang on the money. Martin's behaviour and insouciance over the welfare of our vulnerable people is beneath contempt.


I hope Wetherspoon's suffers death by a thousand cuts.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I am not defending Martin - the disgrace is the way these rabid EUphiles are using the topic for their propaganda.


Anyhow:



UK: Between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected





More on the advice underpinning the UK response from Sarah Knapton:


Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that each time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in the population.


The team ran 25,000 epidemic simulations for different scenario of infection and fatality rates. 


For a scenario where each infected person infects three more, they found that one death means an average of 1,733 people are infected - but it could be as many as 138,624. 


With the current number of deaths at 144, it means that between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected in Britain.


----------------------


So that's settled then - between 250K and 19 million - not a wide range at all.





New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
20 March 2020 13:35:28


 


I am not defending Martin - the disgrace is the way these rabid EUphiles are using the topic for their propaganda.


Anyhow:



UK: Between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected





More on the advice underpinning the UK response from Sarah Knapton:


Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that each time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in the population.


The team ran 25,000 epidemic simulations for different scenario of infection and fatality rates. 


For a scenario where each infected person infects three more, they found that one death means an average of 1,733 people are infected - but it could be as many as 138,624. 


With the current number of deaths at 144, it means that between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected in Britain.


----------------------


So that's settled then - between 250K and 19 million - not a wide range at all.






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


So only about 600 million people living in Lombardy then. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chidog
20 March 2020 13:35:51

Applying the 138,624 ratio to the 3,405 deaths in Italy would give 470 million infections. In a country with 60 million population. the modelling there is ludicrous.


Even the low figure in 25,000 runs of 1,733 applied to the Lombardy figures means everyone there has already had it. Back to the drawing board I think

Essan
20 March 2020 13:43:09



UK: Between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected





More on the advice underpinning the UK response from Sarah Knapton:


Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that each time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in the population.


The team ran 25,000 epidemic simulations for different scenario of infection and fatality rates. 


For a scenario where each infected person infects three more, they found that one death means an average of 1,733 people are infected - but it could be as many as 138,624. 


With the current number of deaths at 144, it means that between 250,000 and 19 million people could already be infected in Britain.


----------------------


So that's settled then - between 250K and 19 million - not a wide range at all.






Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



On that basis, about 59 million Italians have the virus (and rising).   Out of a population of 60.5 million .....



Edit: as already pointed out (pesky customer - my only one of the day! - distracting me )

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
nsrobins
20 March 2020 13:46:52


I am sure the PM will tighten the grip in his conference today at 5pm. 


People are still needlessly working at the office, the pubs are full and schools are partly open.


A new wave of fear will sweep the nation this afternoon as the latest numbers get published.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Do you have advanced knowledge of the numbers?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
20 March 2020 13:48:20


 


Do you have advanced knowledge of the numbers?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Well, based on the curve we're on, I'd guess another 60 deaths or so... taking us to 200 ish. (And following the curve would give 600 deaths in 10 days - in just one day!)


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
20 March 2020 13:48:33
If Aged Brexit voting morons want to infect eachother at Spoons that is their choice. We need to respect their wishes.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Maunder Minimum
20 March 2020 13:49:15

It is clear what any sensible nation state has to do to control this.



  1. Hard borders - everyone coming into the country for the foreseeable to be quarantined for at least 7 days, if not 14.

  2. Clean up inside - quarantine, treat and contact trace all cases. Lock-down regions with heavy contagion until it is contained.

  3. Having cleaned up inside - relax restrictions internally but keep hard borders.


Hard borders can only be relaxed, once verified mass immunisation can be adopted. So no foreign holidays for the foreseeable.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
20 March 2020 13:56:16


 


Well, based on the curve we're on, I'd guess another 60 deaths or so... taking us to 200 ish. (And following the curve would give 600 deaths in 10 days - in just one day!)


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It's horrible to say but the worse thing will be if the numbers are low today because the PM may then hold back until next week. In the meantime we'll have the weekend drinking fest in London.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
20 March 2020 13:58:08

For those hoping China is over the worst I have been talkig to my international colleagues this morning by email and this has just arrived from China:


'The situation in China is not getting better actually. Official figures are all fake numbers. With the come-back-to-work command now from above, and people gathering in mass again,  we are facing the second wave of explosion of virus cross infection. The more serious situation is not gone, but still coming.'


Sobering, but not entirely a surprise given the track record of China in the past.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Devonian
20 March 2020 14:01:55


It is clear what any sensible nation state has to do to control this.



  1. Hard borders - everyone coming into the country for the foreseeable to be quarantined for at least 7 days, if not 14.

  2. Clean up inside - quarantine, treat and contact trace all cases. Lock-down regions with heavy contagion until it is contained.

  3. Having cleaned up inside - relax restrictions internally but keep hard borders.


Hard borders can only be relaxed, once verified mass immunisation can be adopted. So no foreign holidays for the foreseeable.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


What a sensible country does is:


A national govt and very quick measures to ensure we can grow enough food to eat for a year or more.


Beyond that the rich need to help the poor or we'll all get consumed. We all have to be in this together. But, soon, money wont matter.


Somehow we have to work to survive without infecting ourselves. We, as a nation need to learn very fast.


Dig for victory, talk but apart. Hope. Collective effort.


But, I suspect you haven't even got past first base yet...


 


 

Retron
20 March 2020 14:03:52


It is clear what any sensible nation state has to do to control this.



  1. Hard borders - everyone coming into the country for the foreseeable to be quarantined for at least 7 days, if not 14.

  2. Clean up inside - quarantine, treat and contact trace all cases. Lock-down regions with heavy contagion until it is contained.

  3. Having cleaned up inside - relax restrictions internally but keep hard borders.


Hard borders can only be relaxed, once verified mass immunisation can be adopted. So no foreign holidays for the foreseeable.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Of course, all this will change once the "have you had it" test comes out. If it shows you've had it, imagine the freedom!


 

Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
20 March 2020 14:05:14


 


Tim is one of our most successful businessmen. He is not a retard


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 You have got this trolling to a fine art with no shortage of risers. Brilliant,

Devonian
20 March 2020 14:05:20


 


Of course, all this will change once the "have you had it" test comes out. If it shows you've had it, imagine the freedom!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


You are well?


It's a corana virus, like a mega cold. We don't get resistant to colds...

Justin W
20 March 2020 14:05:44


 


Of course, all this will change once the "have you had it" test comes out. If it shows you've had it, imagine the freedom!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes - I'm looking forward to it. In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king...

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
20 March 2020 14:06:58


 


What a sensible country does is:


A national govt and very quick measures to ensure we can grow enough food to eat for a year or more.


Beyond that the rich need to help the poor or we'll all get consumed. We all have to be in this together. But, soon, money wont matter.


Somehow we have to work to survive without infecting ourselves. We, as a nation need to learn very fast.


Dig for victory, talk but apart. Hope. Collective effort.


But, I suspect you haven't even got past first base yet...


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


In a nutshell Peter. I sent an email to local councillors saying as much. Massive allotment expansion. Time is of the essence. They can't leave it till the next meeting or think it will go away. 

Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
bledur
20 March 2020 14:09:02


 


What a sensible country does is:


A national govt and very quick measures to ensure we can grow enough food to eat for a year or more.


Beyond that the rich need to help the poor or we'll all get consumed. We all have to be in this together. But, soon, money wont matter.


Somehow we have to work to survive without infecting ourselves. We, as a nation need to learn very fast.


Dig for victory, talk but apart. Hope. Collective effort.


But, I suspect you haven't even got past first base yet...


 


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


 Yeah but there has been too much farmer bashing of late with the whole climate problem apparently due to cows belching. You want plenty beef and milk , be prepared to pay for it. 

Devonian
20 March 2020 14:14:29


 


In a nutshell Peter. I sent an email to local councillors saying as much. Massive allotment expansion. Time is off the essence. They can't leave it till the next meeting or think it will go away. 


Originally Posted by: NMA 


I agree. Seed potatoes need to be cut in half to double the crop. Herbicides rationed. None grass eating meat animals semi culled for food (some could keep a pig fed on scraps). Agricultural workers protected and more trained (at a distance).


We also need ration books, and a minimum income scheme. People need to retrain and quickly, alternative crops need to be in now or by mid April. Food crops, not food for animals.


I've written to MP in similar vein.


Anyone reading with a garden?  Dig it and plant potatoes, leeks or onions - garden centres have them.


Money? We need it to retain some value.


 

Devonian
20 March 2020 14:15:35


 


 Yeah but there has been too much farmer bashing of late with the whole climate problem apparently due to cows belching. You want plenty beef and milk , be prepared to pay for it. 


Originally Posted by: bledur 


This isn't a joke!

garybournemouth
20 March 2020 14:17:02
They just said on the Euronews channel that the average age of people contracting coronavirus in Italy is 63 and in Germany it is 47. Not sure if this is from general testing of the population or hospital admissions.
North Bournemouth.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IBOURNEM20#history 


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