So begins a much quieter weekend than was probably envisaged at the beginning of the month....

If anyone is interested, the wonderful Compound Chemistry have a nice little infographic (click to enlarge) followed by a discussion of the key issues re. testing for the Covid-19 virus. The link to the description is below the image.

https://www.compoundchem.com/2020/03/19/covid-19-testing/?fbclid=IwAR2dZ1nLMTd7ARjJ7WOLOqbCbl7T_uyyA1pb0rbDzeoUVfXSKQYHKRZ2wMc 

Let’s spread information and support not fear. 

Some rather cold comfort suggesting headline figures for deaths, especially for the elderly,  are inflated due to double counting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

I read that. It specifically says "UK experts" therefore surely it should be relatively easy to see how they compare with the predictions made by scientists in other countries?

Yes that same thought had occurred to me: the death total is anyone who dies and has been tested positive. So in the event of widespread transmission, quite a lot of people who were dying anyway would also test positive. Not really a comforting thought, though!

Everyone is dying, it is simply a question of time. Therefore, the modelling could perhaps try to calculate total years lost.

LOL.

There’s the saying that the only certainties in life are death and taxes. The Chancellor seems to be intent on disproving only of those, so who knows....

That would indeed be an intriguing statistic, Brian. A sort of medical opportunity cost. Have you found any examples relating to other medical conditions?

Roger

Absolutely great shout 

My concern is that having seen the story go to #1 as the most read on the BBC website, is that a majority will see it as validating their dismissal of the hype and seriousness.

Yes that is exactly what it would be I think. I haven't looked for examples so don't know if they exist. It would open a massive can of worms IMO. The first thing I would be doing is looking at the death rate predictions from countries such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA. It would then offer some reassurance. For example, if France has a worst case scenario of 50,000 it would suggest someone is way off mark.

Conceptually it’s an interesting idea but how would you calculate it?  You’d need a figure for how many years of life you had left: do you take the average life expectancy? As those with underlying health issues are at higher risk and therefore likely to have a lower life expectancy wouldn’t that give too high a figure?  I suppose there’s data for average life expectancy for various medical conditions and that would get you a better statistic. 

If it was done appropriately the supermarket pricing thing is a really great idea however I fear exploitation by supermarkets. I went to purchase some yoghurts for the week ahead for my pack lunches in the supermarket (where there was a blanket two item limit) and the price per item (i.e. single yoghurt) for a six pack was over 50% higher than buying a single yoghurt. That’s not an anti-hoarding issue it is profiteering.

We have really got to go some to hit 20,000 deaths - take away the 8,000 a year just on standard flu , 12,000 others still seems way wide of the mark to me 

Interesting and thought provoking piece. What I can't understand is how can we rely on the numbers coming out the modelling? As we know from the weather models the reliability of the predictions is highly sensitive to the quality and quantity data going in. But in modelling this epidemic, at any one time, we simply don't know how many people have the virus because we are only testing the people who get really sick. So every time the model is run it is based on poor input data. So how can any reliance be placed on the modelling?

When I was training we used to say the only certainties in life were death, taxes and a nurse. 
We were somewhat biased though 😉

I expect Actuaries have this down to a fine art, Gandalf.  I've not noticed any insurance companies using the information for marketing. Maybe the message it sends is not very "user friendly"!

ONS calculator:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/whatismylifeexpectancyandhowmightitchange/2017-12-01

There was an article in the Telegraph about this a couple of days ago. One Danish shop is doing exactly that with hand sanitiser..

Exponential growth.  Italy could quite conceivably hit 20k deaths in the next fortnight unless their rate starts to taper off quickly.  And we’re only a couple of weeks behind them.

how about utilising click and collect in as many stores as possible, and limiting access to the store? Sainsbury’s are increasing their stores that do this, with priority slots for both this and delivery to older people. I am assuming they are using nectar card for verification of dob 

Antibody testing remains the key to unravelling the extent of the infection. We're now reaching the stage where huge numbers of people are convinced they had it in January or February. I'm very sceptical. Other respiratory infections are always widespread in the winter months. We still eagerly await the results from Holland. 

New infections in South Korea rising again.

True. Reliable data is scarce. We should be very wary of extrapolating from what is available.