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Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 18:12:55

This sort of pandemic is said to occur about every hundred years. What on earth would we do if similar happened again in a few years? My brain cannot compute this crisis we’re in, it still seems so unreal.

Originally Posted by: John p 


Actually we've been remarkably lucky. Just list all the novel viruses that have jumped from the animal world to humans in the last fifty years and been controlled.


HIV/AIDS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika


Our luck has been that none of them had the 'perfect' blend of characteristics that SARS-Cov2 is displaying which is creating this pandemic.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
21 March 2020 18:13:57


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
NickR
21 March 2020 18:14:05
I'm old enough to remember when HMG planned to release figures on a weekly, not daily, basis...
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 18:15:40


 


Just one study of course, but very interesting. The Imperial team's (refined) modelling also suggests that aggressive social distancing can bring the R0 to 1 or less and stop the epidemic. Yet the govt took (and is still taking) its time to do this.


 


 



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


To be fair it's actually a number of people taking time to implement social distancing. The government's message is clear enough and has been for almost a week now.


I'm not an advocate of finger-pointing but if you must then point at the idiots ignoring the warnings.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
21 March 2020 18:17:42


 


That will never happen


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


I doubt it will , which is why it will run for a long time , just watched a news report from China where residents were visiting a local park for the first time in 8 weeks .


Boris and the boys have to tighten the UK's grip on things 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
21 March 2020 18:18:21


 To be fair it's actually a number of people taking time to implement social distancing. The government's message is clear enough and has been for almost a week now.


I'm not an advocate of finger-pointing but if you must then point at the idiots ignoring the warnings.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I disagree. The government has been too slow to react, they got the revised modelling guidance from their epidemiology team last Saturday, which oddly enough was the first day when we started hearing that we misunderstood and 'herd immunity is not our plan'.


Restaurants etc. only closed today and we still have retail shops open...


 

Ulric
21 March 2020 18:19:49


It's the USA; that culture is deeply entrenched and defended vigorously by the NRA and the Republican Party.


But I agree it's a weird response. Probably your best defence in the US is a large sign on the door saying the occupants have Coronavirus.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You can't stop a virus with a 12g.


Americans buy guns because they are frightened of each other, not covid19.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gooner
21 March 2020 18:20:07


 


To be fair it's actually a number of people taking time to implement social distancing. The government's message is clear enough and has been for almost a week now.


I'm not an advocate of finger-pointing but if you must then point at the idiots ignoring the warnings.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes but until some stronger words are spoken you will be pointing for a very long time 


 


I will be writing to victoria prentis  ( Banbury MP ) later this evening 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
21 March 2020 18:20:51

 






































































































Espania
MarchConfimed cases MortalitiesMortality rate (%)Running 5 day %
9th58950.85
10th1204282.33
11th1639352.14
12th2140472.20
13th3004842.802.06
14th42311212.842.46
15th57531362.362.47
16th77532883.712.78
17th91913093.363.01
18th111784914.393.33
19th137165984.363.64
20th171477674.474.06
21st1998010025.024.32

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chichesterweatherfan2
21 March 2020 18:23:16
Clearly some very, very irresponsible people around....the other side of the coin...a lot of young people were working in Waitrose in Chichester this am...helping people with their food shopping...wearing gloves and keeping distance etc etc chatted to several of them.....seemed very aware of dangers, simply trying to help those needing food...one had been there all night helping fill up shelves...
doctormog
21 March 2020 18:23:36


 


I disagree. The government has been too slow to react, they got the revised modelling guidance from their epidemiology team last Saturday, which oddly enough was the first day when we started hearing that we misunderstood and 'herd immunity is not our plan'.


Restaurants etc. only closed today and we still have retail shops open...


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I can see both sides of the argument. If the government had acted sooner it could possibly have improved the situation (and only time would tell). On the other hand if they had acting very "harshly" from the beginning people may have not heeded that or any subsequent instructions without the need to come down on the people like a tonne of bricks.


Ulric what you say about guns is true and you're right they can't stop a virus, but I fear if things escalate they may be used increasingly to stop perceived threats rather than the real one.


Ulric
21 March 2020 18:24:00


Again the UK seems one step behind the curve. My view is we need to go Wuhan now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The Chinese state has the advantage there. Almost the whole population has done national service and are subject to recall in time of need. They can call up the manpower and resources to do full quarantine and food deliveries to every home.


We do not have that ability.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Heavy Weather 2013
21 March 2020 18:24:06
New UK cases: 1035
Tests: 6.5K

Dreadful

Apparently tests are taking 4-5 days to come back also. We have a serious lag here.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
John p
doctormog
21 March 2020 18:24:36


Is it more than 1000 deaths over the last 24h in Spain?  They will probably become worse than Italy and look at that rate of increase.



 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I think that is the cumulative total although the trend is unpleasantly clear.


Ulric
21 March 2020 18:25:51


Ulric what you say about guns is true and you're right they can't stop a virus, but I fear if things escalate they may be used increasingly to stop perceived threats rather than the real one.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That's just how America works. Perceived threats tend to be minorities.


Pandemics notwithstanding.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
doctormog
21 March 2020 18:26:12


How do you tackle such a mindset? The lack of joined up thinking is disturbing. I genuinely don't think it is malicious but it is dangerous ignorance at its worst.


Edit: Ulric, yes that is my fear.


xioni2
21 March 2020 18:27:06


 I can see both sides of the argument. If the government had acted sooner it could possibly have improved the situation (and only time would tell). On the other hand if they had acting very "harshly" from the beginning people may have not heeded that or any subsequent instructions without the need to come down on the people like a tonne of bricks.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes that could be fair, but I think they should still have acted on the side of caution. Johnson's liberalism might also be contributing to this and he has written about British society's attitudes/experiences during WWII.

Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 18:27:25


Maunder posted this in the last thread last night:


The Italians showed a bit of gumption early on when they stopped all direct flights to and from China. Did them a power of good however, since they are in Schengenland and any Chinese tourist in January/February could land in Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Amsterdam, or Geneva or anywhere and either get on a connecting flight to Milan or get a rail journey there. So long Italy!


 


Then, when the Italian outbreak occurred and became knowledge, Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland and France should have immediately closed their land borders with Italy, but the EU pompously stated "a virus does not respect borders". Well no, a virus doesn't, but it is passed  on by people, people who cross borders, so Austria, Germany, France and Spain are in corona Hell now, along with the rest of Europe.


 


Finally the UK. Someone please tell me me, what was the freaking point of Brexit if we did not take advantage of it to close our freaking borders? We should have suspended all flights to China at the outset. When Italy broke out, we should have suspended all flights to and from Milan and told people "sorry people, but your ski holidays are cancelled for the common good!". When the government were introducing domestic restrictions, they were still allowing infected people to come here from every shitshow infected country in Europe! Insane!


 


Then we come to the WHO - a complete up the arse of China shitshow from the outset! The WHO were late to declare a PHEIC, were late to get in on the ground in China, should have called a halt to cruises in the Far East in early January and everywhere else by February and the WHO were like Comical Ali over declaring a Pandemic, when it was as plain as your nose to a blind man on  a dark night that it was a Pandemic! Also, the WHO refuse to recognise Taiwan, the one freaking country in the World who treated the contagion seriously from the outset!


 


So take the piss out of Trump by all means - he is a brain dead moron - but the one sensible thing he did was to stop all flights to and from Shitshow Europe!


 


Plus, it is a Chinese virus caused by their disgusting wild animal eating habits - bat->pangolin->Chinaman!


Well said, that man! So much expertise, but so much incompetence as well from so many governments.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Some good points there but the opening sentence is just plain wrong. Pandora's box was already open because the Chinese visitors brought Covid-19 with them and somehow it became established in northern Italy unseen until it suddenly burst out.


I can understand the desire to play the political EU card but it's boll***s and completely fails to grasp the realities of the behaviour of this virus. If it was in northern Italy in mid-January it's inconceivable that it wasn't in other countries as well at around the same time. Chinese people didn't just visit Italy.


Ditto the comment about the US: banning flights from Europe hasn't contained their ballooning problem.  


Sorry, but this annoys me: simplistic, ill-considered actions that don't reflect the evidence.


If we wanted to make certain of keeping Covid-19 out of the UK we needed to close the borders in mid-January.  Did anyone ever think that was an appropriate response 10 weeks ago?


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
21 March 2020 18:27:43

New UK cases: 1035
Tests: 6.5K

Dreadful

Apparently tests are taking 4-5 days to come back also. We have a serious lag here.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I made the test count 5842.


Total today:  72818
Total yesterday:  66976


If I'm right the figures are even worse. (Fewer tests, same number of positives)


It seems to be ripping now and I think we have a catastrophe on our hands. Do hope I'm wrong.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bugglesgate
21 March 2020 18:28:20


Woman in her 40s has died of coronavirus at the Princess Royal, Telford. Relatively young but had serious underlying conditions apparently.


Edit: seems that she died on the 15th but a press release has been put out now.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


 


The age  VS death graph is a blunt tool.  The  meaningful parameter is physical condition  that  often happens  to roughly track age.


The biological condition (age) of  a 40 something that has  all kinds of underlying conditions or has let their physical condition   deteriorate  for decades through lack of   exercise, a bad diet and  being over weight will not be immune  being severely  affected by this bloody thing.  On the  other side of the coin a 60 something in good health  may fare much better.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
doctormog
21 March 2020 18:30:08


 


 


The age  VS death graph is a blunt tool.  The  meaningful parameter is physical condition  that  often happens  to roughly track age.


The biological condition (age) of  a 40 something that has  all kinds of underlying conditions or has let their physical condition   deteriorate  for decades through lack of   exercise, a bad diet and  being over weight will not be immune  being severely  affected by this bloody thing.  On the  other side of the coil a 60 something in good health  may fare much better


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


In the bluntest of terms it seemingly really is "survival of the fittest". Horrible but biology at its rawest.


JHutch
21 March 2020 18:30:11


The age  VS death graph is a blunt tool.  The  meaningful parameter is physical condition  that  often happens  to roughly track age.


The biological condition (age) of  a 40 something that has  all kinds of underlying conditions or has let their physical condition   deteriorate  for decades through lack of   exercise, a bad diet and  being over weight will not be immune  being severely  affected by this bloody thing.  On the  other side of the coil a 60 something in good health  may fare much better


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Yep

Heavy Weather 2013
21 March 2020 18:30:58


 


I made the test count 5842.


Total today:  72818
Total yesterday:  66976


If I'm right the figures are even worse. (Fewer tastes, same number of positives)


It seems to be ripping now and I think we have a catastrophe on our hands. Do hope I'm wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I hope your wrong as well. Our testing is all over the place. Yesterday was 2.5K and today was 6.5. But in a few days it might make the overall numbers look like there falling. I don’t want complanceny to kick in. It’s bad enough already.


The numbers right now are not pointing to a positive picture at all. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
21 March 2020 18:35:11

New UK cases: 1035
Tests: 6.5K

Dreadful

Apparently tests are taking 4-5 days to come back also. We have a serious lag here.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


We are in deep sh1t by the looks of things 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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