If we as a nation were blind as to what was going on in Europe, and no actions were being taken by the Government, then yes, we'd be in exponential growth. Compared to Italy who had no precedent for what was going on, other than China and Iran which don't really compare to European culture.
I think the nation as a whole woke up to the threat nearly 2 weeks ago, when the numbers started getting big. In the week before last, although I had to travel for work on 4 out of the 5 week days, one of which was to London, I was washing my hands so often that my knuckles were getting sore. I was also consciously keeping my distance from anyone nearby, opening door handles without touching them, etc. At the end of that week, my company told us all to cancel all site visits and work from home. That was 10 days ago.
Of course we've seen the pictures of the busy parks and beaches, the full tubes, etc. ... but that probably only involved a minority of the population. I would guess that the majority of us, particularly those aged 40 and above, have been a lot more careful and are becoming more careful since, which would significantly dampen down the exponential growth.
We haven't reached a peak yet; I'm sure that the daily number of cases will rise for the next 2 weeks or so, but not exponentially. The daily death count will rise for the next 3-4 weeks because there is a lag.
I'm not sure how you can have a model to predict what will happen if it doesn't include external factors (media reports, government actions) as input?
Originally Posted by: Darren S