Incidentally I was similarly skeptical when the same thing happened in Hubei in late January, but that actually was real; and the peak happened in Early february. My model suggests we will peak in 3-4 days time unless something changes.
If I had to bet, I'd say my model was wrong and we are still in the exponential growth phase. Only because I can't see how we could have escaped it this early on given that no one is socially distancing.
Originally Posted by: Quantum