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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 19:49:19

GFS seems a bit out of kilter with a NE flow and possible snow showers later in the weekend, ECM and UKMO have the high pressure much closer, with less of a risk, although SE areas more favourable. Seems to be more of a trend for a potent northerly around the 240hour mark now.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Meteo group (BBC weather) like the idea of snow showers briefly, too


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
24 March 2020 23:28:06

ECM @ 240 - If only... it was the month of.....!??


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


BJBlake
25 March 2020 00:52:54
There were notable late snow events in the 70s and 80s into late March and 1977 one on the 10th April gave an overnight 4" fall - widely in the SE - even in central London.
Not expecting that, but to see some proper wintry (Arctic air), bright high pressure weather as winter's fairwell is welcome distraction from the Saton Bug misery, and it would seem Spring arrives to stay thereafter....
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Gooner
25 March 2020 06:40:07

Seems a much colder spell is on the way , too little too late grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sevendust
25 March 2020 06:44:18


Seems a much colder spell is on the way , too little too late grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Looks a bit 1975 to me. Polar incursion and reload

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 March 2020 07:16:38

GFS: ridge to Baltic continues until Sat 28th when it splits in two, by Sun 29th the Euro centre has faded and 1050mb appears S of Iceland, with consequent NE-lies. They don't last as the HP moves back over UK by Wed 1st. By Sat 4th, though LP over Scotland 990mb bringing much colder Arctic air S over the whole of UK; takes its time to move away but does so by Thu 9th as weak ridge of HP comes in from the S.


ECM similar to Wed 1st, then develops a two-stage Arctic blast, the first Thu 2nd earlier than GFS but somewhat to the east of us, and then looks as if it's setting up for a second blast on Sat 4th to match GFS


GEFS temp shows a big dip (10c below norm) Mon 29th, mean of runs recovering slowly to near or a bit below norm by Thu 2nd - no sign of the GFS Arctic stuff though regular rainfall begins again from around the 4th (op and control temp runs are below the mean, and it stays colder in the far N with Inverness snow row  figures over 20 for a full week)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
briggsy6
25 March 2020 09:36:07

Damn was hoping for a continuation of this beautiful sunny H.P. but Spring is not traditionally like that in UK with big lurches from warm/cold and back, dry/wet so too much to hope for I guess.


Location: Uxbridge
Tim A
25 March 2020 10:46:52
Still an outside chance of some wintry showers in the SE over the weekend, but generally not looking as promising as the last few days. The position/shape of the high was always going to be challenging.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_2.png 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

Β My PWS 
Gooner
25 March 2020 11:10:25


Virtually identical to what the Beeb said last night - re next week


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
25 March 2020 12:34:48
But there are plenty of options that don’t deliver depth of cold on Sunday as previously modelled and certainly don’t bring in a second blast next weekend.
As always nothing is certain until it actually happens - and that goes for covid as well as cold.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
25 March 2020 17:20:22


Chilly first week in April


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 March 2020 07:23:56

Jetstream currently to the N of UK, but bending round to give the N Sea a northerly blast on Sun 29th, easing off but then settling into a NW-ly flow aimed at S Norway from Wed 1st through to Thu 9th before breaking up into loops


GFS as yesterday develops twin HP centres and by Sun 29th the Euro centre has faded but 1050mb is in place S of Iceland with NE-lies for UK. HP in that location sticks around but weakens to be close to Scotland 1030mb Sun 5th and fup till then the wind is generally N-ly but less strong later on. Finally the HP moves across us to Denmark 1040mb Sat 11th Apr and S-ly winds are back.


ECM similar but around Sun 5th it is still holding the HP out in the Atlantic so N-lies are still persisting 


In both cases the second bout of N-ly winds suggested yesterday for later on has gone away, but the first blast lasts longer but weaker


GEFS again predictable, big dip Sun 29th (~10c below norm), recovering more slowly than forecast yesterday, mean of runs back to norm by Tue 7th but op & control still cold. Bits and pieces of rain from Fri 3rd in some runs but dry until then.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
26 March 2020 10:20:32
I see the ECM has downgraded this potent northerly @ +240z this morning?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Argyle77
26 March 2020 11:58:31
No model as keen with a direct Northerly hit now.

Can’t remember the last time we had a direct hit from the North.

Always something goes wrong with the modelling and they miss.
moomin75
26 March 2020 17:31:21
GFS is continuing its backtrack to a short cold spell followed by a significant warm up.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
26 March 2020 17:52:44

GFS is continuing its backtrack to a short cold spell followed by a significant warm up.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Unfortunately it is a bit out on its own at the moment.


moomin75
26 March 2020 17:53:09


 


Unfortunately it is a bit out on its own at the moment.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Trend setter?? πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
26 March 2020 17:55:23


Trend setter?? πŸ™πŸ™πŸ™


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.


Gandalf The White
26 March 2020 18:07:23


 


I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, I noticed the GFS switch round on last night's 18z.  Call me old-fashioned but once the calendar flips over to April I lose my enthusiasm for cold weather: it just becomes an irritating obstacle on the road to warmer, decent weather.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
26 March 2020 19:21:37
The end of the of the ECM 12z run wafts a nice broad warm flow in our direction.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020032612/ECM0-240.GIF?26-0 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


richardabdn
26 March 2020 20:38:21


 


I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Unfortunately there hasn't been a single day warm enough to spend any time in the garden this year and there is zero sign of that changing in the reliable time period. Latest GFS was appalling throughout the entirety of the next week with Friday 3rd April the first day to show anything acceptable by which time that would be almost a fortnight with barely any sunshine at all 


I see nothing remotely warm and nothing cold enough to be of interest just cloudy, chilly feeling, depressing conditions with the same dire temperatures of 6-12C we seem to have been suffering for an eternity.


Following the first extended winter in recorded history with no lying snow I note that tomorrow will mark exactly six months since I last recorded 15C. There's just no variety or extremes any more 


 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
tallyho_83
27 March 2020 01:36:15

No model as keen with a direct Northerly hit now.

Can’t remember the last time we had a direct hit from the North.

Always something goes wrong with the modelling and they miss.

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


 


Agreed! I don't know the last time the whole of the UK had a direct northerly blasting through the whole country - a day or so back many were going for the -10c isothem @ 850hpa to sweep across the whole of the UK with the far north of Scotland going down to -12 or -13c @ 850hpa which would have mean daytime maxes of 0c. Same old failure.  


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
27 March 2020 01:37:58


 


Unfortunately there hasn't been a single day warm enough to spend any time in the garden this year and there is zero sign of that changing in the reliable time period. Latest GFS was appalling throughout the entirety of the next week with Friday 3rd April the first day to show anything acceptable by which time that would be almost a fortnight with barely any sunshine at all 


I see nothing remotely warm and nothing cold enough to be of interest just cloudy, chilly feeling, depressing conditions with the same dire temperatures of 6-12C we seem to have been suffering for an eternity.


Following the first extended winter in recorded history with no lying snow I note that tomorrow will mark exactly six months since I last recorded 15C. There's just no variety or extremes any more 


 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


This is turning into the spring 2020 rant thread! - Didn't parts of NE Scotland experiences temperatures of +17c sometime in winter due to the fohn effect!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 March 2020 06:55:32

HP to S of Iceland 1050mb bringing in strong NE-lies by Sunday, as forecast, but drifting S-wards with ridge to Germany cutting off the wrorst of the N-ly flow (still there, but weaker) by Wed 1st. But by Fri 3rd LP off Norway 970mb brings Arctic air S-wards, mainly affecting Scotland (this feature was in earlier forecasts but has been resurrected today).It doesn't last and by Tue 7th we have long-fetch S-lies for all, and indeed winds from that general direction through to Sun 11th


ECM has a less strong but more widespread N'ly around the 3rd, and then moves on more quickly to the mild S-lies bringing them up by by Sun 5th


GEFS v cold Mon 30th, most runs staying below average to Sun 5th, then (unlike yesterday) the majority go for mild weather through to Sat 11th (less marked in Scotland). Some sporadic rainfall appearing after the 5th (more marked in Scotland)


Noticeably milder for UK in week 2 on this model, and still dry in the S  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


Snow cover well in retreat over W Europe https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif One of the volunteers in the respite home where we're staying was marvelling at 14C in his home town in Lithuania- but it's forecast to drop overnight on Sat to 4C!


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gooner
27 March 2020 10:49:45


Superb set up , imagine this in January 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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