This is quite ridiculous.

Not only does it bring -10C 850hpa temps but it puts us in reach of breaking yet another high pressure record.

It would also be the coldest airmass of the entire 'winter'

Is it though? 

850hpa temps at 1040mb are going to be much higher in the atmosphere than the 850hpa temps when we have a polar NW and sea level pressure of 970mb.

Its a fairly typical early spring cold high and typical cold east or North easterly type set up.  Wont be a kind regime of weather but will encourage people to stay indoors if cloudier and cold.

Chilly weather on the way 

Yes, I’ve been watching this pattern evolve for several days. GFS shows fairly widespread wintry showers overnight Saturday into Sunday.  It will feel pretty bitter under cloud cover with a brisk NE wind but quite pleasant in any sunshine with shelter.  

Apologise for posting something off topic here, but did so to ensure better attention. If there is a better site on TWO to post this please let me know.

After looking at satellite images of canary islands just to see what the weather like onhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map#?map=SatelliteIRAndRADAR&fcTime=1584949500&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=52.45, I am now receiving the message when I access https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/: (Is was looking for forecast charts) :-

Access Denied

You don't have permission to access "http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map" on this server.

Reference #18.cd8f655f.1584992688.29ed31ab.

How very odd! Why is this? 

What work is deemed ‘absolutely necessary’?

Sorry - wrong thread 😊

LOL

Checking the model output is unarguably 'absolutely necessary' but fortunately an occupation you can carry out from home.

With family members, if they're similarly afflicted....

😉

Jet stream running close to the NW this week with strong branch over the Med until it ties itself in knots from Sat 28th. The Med branch resumes and dominates until Tue 7th when it begins to move back our way.

GFS 0z has same pattern as yesterday, first HP over Baltic with ridge to UK (e-lies in S of UK, W-lies in N) until Sun 29th when strong new HP centre S of Icelland brings in cold NE-lies for a couple of days before it, too, moves off to Baltic by Thu 2nd. Despite some advances by Atlantic LP, this hangs on to Thu 9th with mostly S-ly flow.

ECM similar to Wed 1st but HP stays mid Atlantic and brings in some really cold N-lies by Fri 3rd. Big contrast with GFS and GEFS.

GEFS temps bottom out around 30/31st Mar (~ 9C below norm) then diverge with mean close to norm by 2nd Apr but wide range. General tendency to be on mild side at least in the S towards the end on Fri 10th. A little rain here and there, more likely after Fri 3rd.

I tried to involve family members over the years but two divorces later and I tend to restrict my ‘activities’ to just me these days 🤪😁

ROFL

The interaction in winter in this family extends to: 

Me; "It looks like it might snow in x days"

Wife: "Let's wait and see."

🙄

Thames snow streamer incoming in a few days? Just what you want at the start of April.

Note to the weather gods - please could you arrange for the UK to have winter during the winter months in future and spring when spring is due.

What the hell is with the GFS 12Z?!!?!?!?!?

Come on Q, where have you been hiding? 😂

It has a 2nd wave too though! And its alot colder than the 6Z.

I raised this in a thread several days ago. Still available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20927

GEFS gives highest snow risk for me since last November.