London Mayor @SadiqKhan says tube travel this morning is down by a third compared to yesterday #HeartNews pic.twitter.com/EJPl65ULTL

— Heart London News (@HeartLondonNews) March 25, 2020

It's more likely to be modelling garbage. We'd have seen more deaths and ICU admissions in February if that was the case.

 

Also this may be contributing to lower numbers in Germany. Son lives there, whenever I visit I hardly ever see anyone obese in Stuttgart. 

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I wondered about this. The sitting around getting bored is going to encourage more eating with little or no exercise. Suggests we will have more health conditions after we come out of this nightmare and as a result of this.

They are based on this paper (pdf)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

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Cycling and walking need to be encouraged - perfectly possible to be out in the fresh air whilst keeping a few yards distance from others. Don't really understand why they have an edict about going out once per day.

 

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The Government have announced a 6-month MOT exception for all vehicle owners. Vehicles must be kept roadworthy and garages will remain open for essential repair work. Drivers could still be prosecuted if a vehicle is found to be on the road and unsafe.

Things are no starting to hit home significantly now.

We have just had an email from the business asking us to use 80% of our annual leave before the 31 May 2020.

That will leave me with five days left for 6 months.

 

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Just listened to a fascinating programme on R4 - More or Less - which was focussing on Covid-19

A selection of interesting points:

1. The mortality rate by age apparently exactly matches the normal mortality profile; what is happening, in effect, is that deaths that probably would have happened (at a macro level) are being brought forward

2. From various pieces of data coming from Iran the number of cases is likely to be 'an order of magnitude or two' higher than what they're reporting, so potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe a million.

3. The government borrowing figure for the year is likely to be around £150 billion, much the same as during the financial crisis; a combination of sharply lower tax revenues and the swathe of measures introduced.

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Completely agree. We are still going for our walk in the morning before work and observing a 2 metre rule. It has not been an issue at all.

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'Confused, dangerous, flippant': rest of world pans PM's handling of coronavirus

Surely with all the free time people will now have there's even more opportunity than usual to take exercise? You can walk, jog, cycle. In the house you can do sit ups and a range of activities. You could even just run up and down the stairs twenty times (or more).

I think it's an attitude of mind. Of course slumping in front of the TV or computer or whatever is easier.

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Many people will probably come out of this healthier.

I wish people would stop using the word " lockdown" because it isn't really ,tens of  thousands of people in the manufacturing and construction industry are still working side by side 

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Dont get much choice here. Dog sits right in front of me (or the TV) and stares intently until I give in.

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Indeed, I expect to lose weight (I eat less when at home as I am not snacking all day, as I do at work) and get fitter (walking, gardening and decorating + using my exercise bike daily - not as though I have any excuse not to!)

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Yes which is great, but I also expect many will come out of this unhealthier with conditions. Further pressure on the NHS.

Think it depends on circumstances. I used to live in a flat in West Hampstead which is a decent part of NW London. If I was there now I would be afraid to go out because a) it would be impossible to maintain social distancing b) the infection rate in NW seems particularly high

 

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I think it's probably a good time to diet!

No wonder the monkey's confused*

Two side by side headlines on the Daily Fail website:

Scientists say coronavirus is NOT mutating quickly

Scientists in Iceland claim they have found FORTY mutations of the coronavirus

* it's a line from a Roger Water's song 

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The Germans have started attributing their relatively low number of deaths to widespread testing. This is in line with what happened in Asian countries outside of Hubei.

"As to why there is a relatively low death rate in Germany (officially 146 deaths, and over 31,500 infections, according to RKI figures), Wieler said it was due to the fact Germany had tested widely from the start, and was able to detect the virus earlier, and many milder cases were discovered.

In addition as yet, fewer older people in Germany have been infected, he said.

Wieler said “we are at the beginning of this epidemic” and the number of deaths would rise. “It is still completely unclear how this epidemic will develop,” he said."

I'm a bit puzzled. Have the Germans been doing a lot of testing for weeks or have they just started? I thought a couple of weeks ago Britain was supposed to be leading the way in Europe. All of a sudden it turns out the Germans have done more than 3x as many tests. I know their population is a bit bigger but not by anything like that.  

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This morning apparently.

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Virgin Media internet connection just starting to slow down. Only noticeable on upload at the moment which should be around 35 to 40Mbps.

 

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I haven't really followed Germany, but my understanding is that earlier on some of their numbers were not total/complete, as they have a federal system. Apparently now every doctor (even 'GPs') can test for covid if you have fever and/or coughing.