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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 March 2020 08:53:34

I guess in future it will come in handy as every experiment needs a control.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 


Between us we have criticised or applauded every country for their different approaches.  We’ve said ‘if only’ too many times, analysed news snippets both real and fake, criticised our own government for doing things to late or too early, for u-turns, for not knowing etc.  We’re beating ourselves into a frenzy over something we still don’t know nearly enough about.  


We’re still learning and there will be no answers until this is over!  Hindsight would be a wonderful thing, if only we had it!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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chelseagirl
27 March 2020 08:55:40


 


I'm sure I read somewhere recently that it wasn't first discovered in Wuhan until late December (the Xmas/New Year period).


That said, I guess it is possible that people were going down with the symptoms of coronavirus in China some time before the disease was officially diagnosed, as it were. It could have been that it was doing real damage in China and then other countries near to China some time before the authorities there knew what it actually was.


As I've mentioned before, while closing borders many weeks ago would not have stopped it getting into this country (and others) completely, it may have meant that even once it did get here, it may have been somewhat easier to contain than has proved to be the case. That has been my real gripe with the way both HMG, the US government and many across Europe dealt with this crisis in the early weeks.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The Guardian has an article saying that the media in China were saying that the first case was recorded on 17 November 2019. 


The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
Bolty
27 March 2020 08:57:47

A shop in Pennsylvania has to throw away $35,000 worth of food after a woman went round deliberately coughing on it:


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-shop-throws-away-35k-of-food-deliberately-coughed-on-11964308


$35,000 worth of food. Just think about how much that is for a second. Disgusting woman.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Brian Gaze
27 March 2020 08:59:43

Usual caveat - it's from the Fail:


Sweden considers cutting off Stockholm in dramatic coronavirus restriction U-turn after deaths soar by 60% in a day with the capital hardest hit


Sweden has so-far resisted following other European countries - including neighbours Norway and Denmark - into full lockdowns, but the latest figures have spooked politicians into a re-think.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156641/Sweden-considers-cutting-Stockholm-dramatic-coronavirus-restriction-U-turn.html


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:13:37


As I've mentioned before, while closing borders many weeks ago would not have stopped it getting into this country (and others) completely, it may have meant that even once it did get here, it may have been somewhat easier to contain than has proved to be the case. That has been my real gripe with the way both HMG, the US government and many across Europe dealt with this crisis in the early weeks.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Exactly the point David - contain and control measures can only work, if the borders are already themselves controlled.


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:14:55


Usual caveat - it's from the Fail:


Sweden considers cutting off Stockholm in dramatic coronavirus restriction U-turn after deaths soar by 60% in a day with the capital hardest hit


Sweden has so-far resisted following other European countries - including neighbours Norway and Denmark - into full lockdowns, but the latest figures have spooked politicians into a re-think.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156641/Sweden-considers-cutting-Stockholm-dramatic-coronavirus-restriction-U-turn.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I have asked my Danish colleagues whether this is true - will get back to you.


New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
27 March 2020 09:15:04


Usual caveat - it's from the Fail:


Sweden considers cutting off Stockholm in dramatic coronavirus restriction U-turn after deaths soar by 60% in a day with the capital hardest hit


Sweden has so-far resisted following other European countries - including neighbours Norway and Denmark - into full lockdowns, but the latest figures have spooked politicians into a re-think.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156641/Sweden-considers-cutting-Stockholm-dramatic-coronavirus-restriction-U-turn.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I find it odd that people have suggested the Swedish approach might be worth pursuing whilst they lambasted the UK government for seeking a similar alternative approach at first; before the weight of scientific research made it clear that preventing the spread was the only real option.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Justin W
27 March 2020 09:15:05


Usual caveat - it's from the Fail:


Sweden considers cutting off Stockholm in dramatic coronavirus restriction U-turn after deaths soar by 60% in a day with the capital hardest hit


Sweden has so-far resisted following other European countries - including neighbours Norway and Denmark - into full lockdowns, but the latest figures have spooked politicians into a re-think.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156641/Sweden-considers-cutting-Stockholm-dramatic-coronavirus-restriction-U-turn.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Obviously this won't prevent more of Maunder's inane burbling about Sweden having got it right by doing next to nothing.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gandalf The White
27 March 2020 09:16:49


 


Exactly the point David - contain and control measures can only work, if the borders are already themselves controlled.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Controlling the borders to prevent the virus being imported is impossible. You would have needed to close them completely back in December, before Covid-19 was even acknowledged as a major issue.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
27 March 2020 09:21:25


 


I find it odd that people have suggested the Swedish approach might be worth pursuing whilst they lambasted the UK government for seeking a similar alternative approach at first; before the weight of scientific research made it clear that preventing the spread was the only real option.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I am just flagging it up. Personally I think the UK (and that of other European countries) is correct. In fact I would lockdown the UK further.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ulric
27 March 2020 09:28:53


I am just flagging it up. Personally I think the UK (and that of other European countries) is correct. In fact I would lockdown the UK further.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


In practical terms I don't think there is any other way to prevent transmission other than lock-down. Arguments for not preventing transmission are likely to get out of hand very quickly IMO.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:29:13


 


Controlling the borders to prevent the virus being imported is impossible. You would have needed to close them completely back in December, before Covid-19 was even acknowledged as a major issue.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


That misses the point somewhat. The virus would still come in, but putting all arrivals from countries with cases into automatic 14 day monitored quarantine, would have allowed the sort of containment and control measures seen in Taiwan and South Korea.


Clearly, letting all comers pass through our borders, allows the virus to spread until it is no longer containable, as we have seen across Europe and the USA.


 


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:30:45


 


I am just flagging it up. Personally I think the UK (and that of other European countries) is correct. In fact I would lockdown the UK further.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


First response from one of my colleagues: "


But anyways since I as a Dane can read some Swedish gibberish, it is currently just a thought being kicked around and the politicians is against it


So give it a day or a week"


- so looks like the Mail has picked up on chatter rather than actual policy in Sweden - not happened yet!


New world order coming.
Justin W
27 March 2020 09:31:58


 


That misses the point somewhat. The virus would still come in, but putting all arrivals from countries with cases into automatic 14 day monitored quarantine, would have allowed the sort of containment and control measures seen in Taiwan and South Korea.


Clearly, letting all comers pass through our borders, allows the virus to spread until it is no longer containable, as we have seen across Europe and the USA.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And yet you seem to think that now that it is epidemic here, we should not lock down and just let it rip. Can't you see how contradictory your position is?


 


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Chichesterweatherfan2
27 March 2020 09:33:11

[quote=Brian Gaze;1197078]


I would recommend people to watch Question Time, 26/03. I think this is the link:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gpnd/question-time-2020-26032020


Richard Horton is excellent and the other 3 panellists are pretty good too - inc Tory and Labour. The programme is vastly improved because there is no studio audience. 


Horton suggests the lockdown will need to go on for 11 or 12 weeks and be tightened further. He cites Wuhan as evidence and it ties in nicely with what the Chinese Dr in Lombardy was telling the Italians yesterday. Regarding Imperial, Ferguson says their latest modelling shows the virus is slightly MORE transmissible than had been thought and the estimate of its lethality is unchanged. 


[/quote


totally agree Brian... I and others have been saying this for years now...I do believe that there is scope for some tiny positives to come out of this appalling situation... One of them might be a move away from the media obsession  with hearing from members of the public and that their views count equally as any other..when so much stupidity is in evidence...Also, if it means we hear less from self appointed experts like  Tim Martin, then that is surely no bad thing.


One last point.. we support a charity in Burundi... one of the poorest countries in the world.. the whole country has 20 ventilators in total... The virus will have a devastating impact...

Gavin D
27 March 2020 09:33:23

Updated trajectory following the UKs update last night


JHutch
27 March 2020 09:35:54


 


That’s a slightly jarring use of the word ‘control’ in the circumstances.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, inappropriate, take back control Michael 

Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:38:44


 


And yet you seem to think that now that it is epidemic here, we should not lock down and just let it rip. Can't you see how contradictory your position is?


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Not contradictory at all - there are two strategies which have long term potential:



  1. Keep it out and clean up inside the borders (SK, Taiwan for example).

  2. Let it rip and take the consequences on the chin.


What most of Europe is doing is probably the worst of all worlds - trash the economy without containing the virus.


If you want to contain it, first close the borders, then absolute lock-down for two to three weeks, then relax internally whilst keeping borders secure - that is an approach which might work.


But no point cleaning up internally, if borders are left open.


New world order coming.
JHutch
27 March 2020 09:39:36


 


Which would then lead to a chorus of "why did we trash the economy" from the usual knuckle draggers here, and Republicans in the US.


Ignoring the fact that the great result would be because of the lock down measures.


Originally Posted by: John p 


I think that people can see what damage this virus can do if lockdown comes too late, ie Lombardy and parts of Spain, maybe other areas to come, so those calls will probably be rejected by most people. Support for the lockdown has been very high in polling (over 90% I think). If we had just gone to lockdown the moment we heard about Wuhan then claims we were over-reacting would have had far more traction.

Justin W
27 March 2020 09:40:21


 


Not contradictory at all - there are two strategies which have long term potential:



  1. Keep it out and clean up inside the borders (SK, Taiwan for example).

  2. Let it rip and take the consequences on the chin.


What most of Europe is doing is probably the worst of all worlds - trash the economy without containing the virus.


If you want to contain it, first close the borders, then absolute lock-down for two to three weeks, then relax internally whilst keeping borders secure - that is an approach which might work.


But no point cleaning up internally, if borders are left open.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Let 'em die, eh? All those economically inactive blue rinses.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
JHutch
27 March 2020 09:43:48


 


Exactly the point David - contain and control measures can only work, if the borders are already themselves controlled.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Another point is that delaying the time when the coronavirus starts spreading rapidly would mean that we could be better prepared, ie more protective equipment, more ventilators, more thoughts about support for various groups of people, better predictions about the rate it would spread at, etc. Its a new enemy and the greater the chance you have to understand the threat you face then the more prepared you can be.

Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:45:09


 


Let 'em die, eh? All those economically inactive blue rinses.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


That is the stark choice - close borders and lock-down, or accept a healthcare system which has a massive spike it cannot cope with, leading to a lot of deaths.


I would have preferred the first course - but all European countries and North America allowed free travel for too long, so we have mass infection within our borders. There is still the possibility of closing borders and cleaning up inside - but it is so much harder to do that from where we have arrived at.


 


New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
27 March 2020 09:48:16


 


I am just flagging it up. Personally I think the UK (and that of other European countries) is correct. In fact I would lockdown the UK further.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hi Brian, I know you were only flagging it up; my comment was not directed at you at all.


🙂


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
27 March 2020 09:48:29


 


That is the stark choice - close borders and lock-down, or accept a healthcare system which has a massive spike it cannot cope with, leading to a lot of deaths.


I would have preferred the first course - but all European countries and North America allowed free travel for too long, so we have mass infection within our borders. There is still the possibility of closing borders and cleaning up inside - but it is so much harder to do that from where we have arrived at.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I just can’t comprehend you change of stance. You were so adamant that you wanted to keep this out, and now you almost happy for it to rip through the population because you worried about the economy. 


Where is the consideration around life?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Maunder Minimum
27 March 2020 09:49:21


 


I just can’t comprehend you change of stance. You were so adamant that you wanted to keep this out, and now you almost happy for it to rip through the population because you worried about the economy. 


Where is the consideration around life?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I am not happy at all - none of the options is good from where we are.


New world order coming.

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