https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2020/03/29/charlie-brooks-think-got-coronavirus-cheltenham-have-cunning/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr  (paywall, but intro gives enough info).

I must say I was gobsmacked to see the crowds at Cheltenham given what we already knew.

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There are only two approaches which work and that has been the case from the outset. Approach number one is to contain the spread and to lock external borders. Approach number two is to keep borders open and wait for herd immunity to work. The UK is clearly going for strategy number two as has been evident from the start - prioritising open borders and herd immunity, which means more premature deaths in the short to medium term than otherwise. Impossible to judge which is the correct approach, since much will depend on whether an effective vaccine will become available in the next 12 months. Those countries which contain the virus, will have to keep their borders closed indefinitely, until herd immunity can be provided by mass vaccination instead of natural resistance to infection.

Without closing borders, the only alternative is to isolate vulnerable groups and to more or less let the virus works its way through the population, hopefully at a controlled rate.

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Apparently Johnson is pinning his hopes on the consortium led by RR and Airbus. Have the Dyson ventilators already fallen out of favour? Serious question.

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Very conflicting stories with a Tsunami of cases predicted at the weekend in London Hospitals yet this morning Neil Ferguson who i do not understand how he keeps his job given his track record , is saying new admissions are levelling off.

 Regarding PPE if you watched the excellent Dr. Henderson on the Andrew Marr show she said her London Hospital where she works is well stocked with PPE. If you watch the interview she makes Marr look a right chump. So the equipment supply is obviously variable but not all bad indeed backed up at the Hospital where my daughter,s friend works, Salisbury and she says no shortage , but maybe not of the Quality you see in Korea.

 Must have read your review of Dyson.

 Not Serious.

Yes, I’ve just read this from Neil Ferguson. He seems to be changing his mind like the wind.

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This post is nonsense. We are not pursuing ‘herd immunity’. We are trying to delay until a vaccine becomes available 

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Garbage In Garbage Out.

Just read this piece. "They walk among us!"

Coronavirus: Driver stopped on M6 lockdown trip with wife in boot
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52088987

Stay safe,
Roger

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Correct. Or effective easily administered medication/treatment. This could be the 'surprise' that gets us out of the mire sooner than predicted.

Then the logic of containment means closed borders in the meantime.

However, I disagree with your premise - the government is trying to keep a lid on cases to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, but herd immunity is still the goal.

Denmark on the other hand is going for full containment and closed borders for as long as it takes. You pays your money and you takes your chance.

 

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It would be wonderful if an effective treatment could be produced - but if it were, it would still mean people getting infected and producing antibodies, but without the terrible symptoms which lead many to be hospitalised.

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It means restrictions on movement and gatherings of people, not closed borders.

How do you expect the NHS ever to get the equipment it needs if the borders are closed?

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Closing borders does not mean goods traffic is not allowed. All countries serious about containment are closing their borders to people - either that, or insisting on proper 14 day quarantine for arrivals - read the reports.

Containers arrive at ports via ferry or lorry - they are easily offloaded and delivered by domestic tractor units.

 

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When the modelling is so bad, it's probably best if it doesn't get published and certainly not used too much. That was my criticism of the early approach, that too much weight was given on epidemiological modelling, instead of looking at real data and taking a public health approach.

It'd be wonderful news though if the rate of increase of hospital admissions has started falling, this is the most critical number. I still think we won't see death numbers anywhere as high as Italy and Spain and I believe living in flats and the close family links are the reasons for it. The latter is probably the same reason why we are seeing high numbers in the west midlands. We did push our luck though with out stupidity in early March, when herd immunity was all the rage.

 

On another note. Did you get your hospital procedure done and is everything OK?  My hubby is still waiting for his op, although we didn’t expect anything other under the circumstances. 

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Here you go - couple of articles in the Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/29/michael-gove-accuses-china-hiding-true-scale-coronavirus-crisis/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

"The initial reporting from China was "not clear" about the scale or the infectiousness of Covid-19, Mr Gove said.

China’s failure to give “clear” information about the spread of the coronavirus has been blamed for worsening the spread of the disease amid a growing diplomatic row with Beijing.

Michael Gove said China had not shared accurate data about the “scale, nature and infectiousness” of the disease, as Downing Street sources suggesting the Communist superpower would face a “reckoning” when the pandemic is over.

..."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/herd-immunity-way-impasse/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

"Herd immunity is the only way out of this impasse

Just over two weeks ago Patrick Vallance told the Today programme that the government’s strategy for fighting the Covid-19 outbreak was built around herd immunity. This is a tried and tested method for managing outbreaks of infectious disease: once a sufficiently large proportion of the population has some form of immunity, acquired either through vaccination or surviving a disease, it becomes impossible for it to spread. Herd immunity worked for smallpox and it worked for measles - or at least it did until the anti-vaxxers decided that they would exercise their freedom of choice by refusing to immunise themselves or their children.

The problem with herd immunity acquired through infection is that it comes at a price: namely that, in this first epidemic (and be in no doubt that this is not the only outbreak of Covid-19 that we will endure), the disease runs riot and the mortality is substantial. A large number of at-risk people will die while the rest of..."

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Here's more about what Ferguson has said:

A senior Government adviser has claimed the coronavirus outbreak shows "early signs of slowing" in the UK, as he suggested around two million Britons could have already had the disease.

Professor Neil Ferguson said there have been "indicators" that the speed of transmission of the virus was slowing, such as the rate of hospital admissions.

He said: "We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now.  It is the result of the actions people have taken and Government has taken."

However, he said that the coronavirus curve of infection rates had "not yet plateaued".

He also suggested up to three per cent of Britons have already had Covid-19, meaning two million people could have already been infected.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/30/politics-latest-news-government-adviser-neil-ferguson-says-early/

On that specific point it's difficult to know how likely he thinks that is.

 

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Breaking: PMs advisor Dominic Cummings is self isolating with coronavirus symptoms

Its strange how he has come to that conclusion. I understood that we were only testing those in hospital. And new cases have surged in recent days.

The messaging over the last 5 days has been very confusion it’s hard to get a clear picture of what’s going on. Only yesterday we had the deputy CMO that measures could still be in place for months. Why would she say this if admissions were slowing down.

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No. It was cancelled two days beforehand. Suspect that I will be waiting for at least 12 months now - can't even go private because private hospitals have been nationalised effectively. Hope your hubby is bearing up.

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On the topic of vaccine development:

https://theconversation.com/labs-are-experimenting-with-new-but-unproven-methods-to-create-a-coronavirus-vaccine-fast-134319

Conclusion: therapies will become available, but don't hold your breath.

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Cummings self isolating with symptoms now. Do you think it was part of the herd immunity strategy that they all got it themselves...

You have to allow the measures time to depress infection rates to levels where it is safe to lift restrictions. That takes time.

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