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Quantum
31 March 2020 12:55:00


 


Yes. I also think the NHS should no longer be a political football and should a be a cross party focus that is removed from the election cycle


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


But the problem is both parties refuse to acknoledge there is a fundemental sickness in the NHS.


Labour focuses on the superficials while the Tories prefer to stick their heads in the sand and pretend there is no problem at all.


But you can't blame the parties, they only reflect what the public is thinking. And half the public thinks the NHS is perfect, and the other half thinks it's perfection is being ruined by not throwing enough money at it.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
31 March 2020 12:56:22


 


You can have a proper cost/benefit analysis and I don't see a problem in regularly spending a lot of money for ventilators and PPE, which probably last for a decent period of time anyway. Spending billions on it is probably better than spending billions on Brexit, spending hundreds of millions on public health campaigns in February would have been better than spending hundreds of millions in October communicating sheer bollocks about Brexit.


Anyway, the newstatesman article says that the (probably) flawed Whitehall planning (herd immunity) goes back to the Labour years.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


One of the things which will come out of this will be capacity issues. But as Brian says, the whole structure needs looking at - those systems which had the highest capacity at the outset, were those modeled on social insurance.


Social insurance is a far better system than state owned and controlled - it provides for diversity, with both private and public providers part of the same system, plus over capacity is built in. The patient is in the driving seat, since the money follows the patient rather than being allocated on some theoretical basis. It is market driven, but everybody is included and nobody has to pay at the point at which they actually need care. It appears to combine the best parts of the private and public sectors.


New world order coming.
xioni2
31 March 2020 12:56:46


 But the problem is both parties refuse to acknoledge there is a fundemental sickness in the NHS.


Labour focuses on the superficials while the Tories prefer to stick their heads in the sand and pretend there is no problem at all.


But you can't blame the parties, they only reflect what the public is thinking. And half the public thinks the NHS is perfect, and the other half thinks it's perfection is being ruined by not throwing enough money at it.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think the public is better than this, the problem is more about leadership.

Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 12:57:39


 


I'd start by doing some kind of meta analysis on all the healthcare systems across the western world. The in depth study would look at a wide range of objective metrics. Ideally, then, you'd base the healthcare system on the best qualities of each system. I expect it to look alot more like a European model but perhaps with elements of other healthcare systems that work well in specific areas. For example, I'm given to understand that the US is leading in some particularly rare diseases. Hell I'm sure the NHS, as it is, is world leading in something.


I don't know the answer, but the first step to finding the solution is acknoledging that we need to be asking these questions.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 Agree with this.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
31 March 2020 12:59:05

I do think a main issue is that the public views insurance/privatization as dangerous.


The problem is they are right, to some extent. The PFI scheme under labour was a disaster. And the US insurance led system is a disaster. But we are also a disaster and we have moved away from both.


It's like immigration, we need to stop seeing it in dichotemous good/bad terms. Privatization and insurance are just tools like anything else and they can be used competently or incompetently. Few things are so broadly good or bad.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
31 March 2020 13:00:38


 


But the problem is both parties refuse to acknoledge there is a fundemental sickness in the NHS.


Labour focuses on the superficials while the Tories prefer to stick their heads in the sand and pretend there is no problem at all.


But you can't blame the parties, they only reflect what the public is thinking. And half the public thinks the NHS is perfect, and the other half thinks it's perfection is being ruined by not throwing enough money at it.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


But both parties refuse to acknowledge that there's a problem for different reasons. The Conservatives because they know the NHS is seen a national treasure and Labour because they can keep using the NHS as a stick with which to beat the Conservatives. 


It needs to be taken out of the political arena and given to experts in the field of health and social care.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
31 March 2020 13:01:35


 But both parties refuse to acknowledge that there's a problem for different reasons. The Conservatives because they know the NHS is seen a national treasure and Labour because they can keep using the NHS as a stick with which to beat the Conservatives. 


It needs to be taken out of the political arena and given to experts in the field of health and social care.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Exactly this.

Bugglesgate
31 March 2020 13:01:49


 


100% sure? That's a bit extreme. I might be 99% sure but it's not that improbable that the virus was made in some lab. That's the thing about conspiracy theories, they represent an absence of evidence, but also sometimes not much evidence of absence. This is why you tend to assume a null hypothesis (i,e that the conspiracy theory is just conjecture until you have evidence to believe otherwise). But, ultimately, it should not be completely dismissed as impossible. Because the reality is, it isn't impossible, there is nothing to stop a country like China from engineering a virus like this (the science to do this isn't even new). Imagine a country like nazi germany existing today, I'm sure this is exactly the kind of thing they would be doing (and you can bet they would also be doing a pretty good job of covering it up). And while China isn't right over there, if any country was going to do it, why not a totalitarian dictatorship that puts 'undesirables' in concentration camps where their organs are sold?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


If it's an escaped  biological weapon, it's a pretty piss poor one.  Most biological weapons kill most of those that encounter them.  The spread is also augmented by being able to catch them by breathing them in long after the carrier has departed the area.   This one needs  water around it to survive.


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 13:02:06


 


Absolutely.


But, as others have said, it needs a fundamental review which looks at best practice and best value for money around the world; and it needs to reflect the reality of an ageing population and therefore must embrace social care as well.


I quite like the idea of a healthcare system that covers a core of services fully and requires a sliding scale of contributions for other treatments.  Somehow it has to stop being treated as a bottomless pit of money which can be used to meet everything when we know that's just impossible (given we already have bed blocking, long waiting lists and de facto rationing of some treatments).


Also, any review must look at prevention and promoting good health;'that means tackling bad diets, poor lifestyles and excess consumption of sugar and alcohol, amongst other things.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Agree. The reason why this is difficult is because it first requires an acknowledgement that the NHS is not the "envy of the world". Until the electorate crunch that cookie they can't be moved on to the main course. It will require a brave politician to move the debate forward.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:05:17


 


I think the public is better than this, the problem is more about leadership.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I disagree, politics always reflects the soul of the public. And the parties are simply vessles for differences in public opinion. If you want the leaders to strive towards better policy then you have to, first, change the minds of the public (or at least enough of them such that the position becomes politically relevant). Think about religion and it's lack of influence in politics. That has nothing to do with the irreligiousity of our leaders but of our public. Compare to America where religion plays a key role in politics because it also plays a key role in the public psyche. The same holds for any issue.


Look at abortion, no one cares about it in the UK (outside of NI) because there is no big abortion debate going on amongst the british people and therefore there is no concomicant political debate.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
fairweather
31 March 2020 13:05:53


 


Cummings's science and long term planning focus is exactly what we needed to avoid something like this from happening. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't think a couple of slogans constitute a successful long term planning CV. I think his" let the elderly die" concept was never going to be one his more popular slogans.  He doesn't have proper science focus, his degree is in modern and ancient history. I fail to see why he is supposed to be some sort of messiah of the people. His background implies he hasn't mixed with many.    His father is a land owner/farmer and his uncle is/was former Lord Justice of Appeal and his wife is daughter of Sir Humphrey Wakefield of Chillingham Castle. He went to a posh independent school in Durham before going to Oxford. So just an everyday bloke , really.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:09:10


 


 


If it's an escaped  biological weapon, it's a pretty piss poor one.  Most biological weapons kill most of those that encounter them.  The spread is also augmented by being able to catch them by breathing them in long after the carrier has departed the area.   This one needs  water around it to survive.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


To be clear, we are talking hypotheticals here, I don't want anyone thinking I'm a conspiracy theoriest and I do not believe this is an escaped bio weapon. However to indulge the hypothetical:


I'm not sure this is true. If it was an escaped lab virus it doesn't mean it was the finished product. Could conceivably be an escpaed experiment as part of the process towards developing a bioweapon. I mean COVID does, indeed, have some desirable characturistics if, indeed, that was your aim.


 


The only point I'm making is, somewhere someone, will have done this. It is not impossible or inconceivable that there may one day be an escaped bioweapon we have to contend with. And of course, if/when that day comes no one will take that prospect seriously and they shouldn't because there will be no evidence of it!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
fairweather
31 March 2020 13:09:29


 


 What system would you model the "NHS" on?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I remember reading a while back about the French system and was impressed. Not so sure now as there isn't much evidence it is coping better than ours. Or is it actually? Haven't seen so much about them as Soain and Italy.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Bugglesgate
31 March 2020 13:10:53


 


I don't think a couple of slogans constitute a successful long term planning CV. I think his" let the elderly die" concept was never going to be one his more popular slogans.  He doesn't have proper science focus, his degree is in modern and ancient history. I fail to see why he is supposed to be some sort of messiah of the people. His background implies he hasn't mixed with many.    His father is a land owner/farmer and his uncle is/was former Lord Justice of Appeal and his wife is daughter of Sir Humphrey Wakefield of Chillingham Castle. He went to a posh independent school in Durham before going to Oxford. So just an everyday bloke , really.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


You could have worked  just from his name - Dominic


I know it's a generalisation, but the only "Doms" I have ever met have been silver spooned Public School Boys.


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
31 March 2020 13:11:41


 I disagree, politics always reflects the soul of the public. And the parties are simply vessles for differences in public opinion. If you want the leaders to strive towards better policy then you have to, first, change the minds of the public (or at least enough of them such that the position becomes politically relevant). 


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


That's exactly what good leadership does (instead of just following or even dumbing down public opinion).

The Beast from the East
31 March 2020 13:14:13


The Irish govt offers suitable advice:


Masturbation will not spread coronavirus


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


How can you give it to yourself?!


W*nking does of course help boost white blood cells, probably why I never get ill


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:14:18


 


That's exactly what good leadership does (instead of just following or even dumbing down public opinion).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


If you are reffering to soundbytes and slogans what you have to understand is that the majority of the british public are unengaged.


If you find these slogans tiresome then you are in a tiny minority that is engaged enough to recognized how much they are overused. Dumbing down policy to a few vacuous slogans is the only way to reach the vast majority of voters. That's just the unfortunate reality.


Every single person on UIA falls into that tiny minority of 'overengaed' voters.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
fairweather
31 March 2020 13:15:10


I do think a main issue is that the public views insurance/privatization as dangerous.


The problem is they are right, to some extent. The PFI scheme under labour was a disaster. And the US insurance led system is a disaster. But we are also a disaster and we have moved away from both.


It's like immigration, we need to stop seeing it in dichotemous good/bad terms. Privatization and insurance are just tools like anything else and they can be used competently or incompetently. Few things are so broadly good or bad.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Just change the name of National Insurance to Health Insurance and add a few percent.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
31 March 2020 13:18:09


 If you are reffering to soundbytes and slogans what you have to understand is that the majority of the british public are unengaged.


If you find these slogans tiresome then you are in a tiny minority that is engaged enough to recognized how much they are overused. Dumbing down policy to a few vacuous slogans is the only way to reach the vast majority of voters. That's just the unfortunate reality.


Every single person on UIA falls into that tiny minority of 'overengaed' voters.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes, but my point is that you cannot wait for the public to get there first, it has more to do with good leadership. Large parts of the public are 'unengaged' as you say, but they are not stupid and they want the best for them and their families.

Ulric
31 March 2020 13:18:15


 


Just change the name of National Insurance to Health Insurance and add a few percent.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


For an American style system, it would be about 200%. We'd also need to forego universal coverage.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
The Beast from the East
31 March 2020 13:18:54


 


 Beast and his mates will get their pints in one way or the other. 


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


My beer consumption has fallen dramatically since Friday week before last. I don't like drinking alone and last night I only had one can! I have been walking miles every day and making multiple "essential" shopping trips to Tesco, just to relieve the boredom. 


My belly has gone down already, so perhaps this nonsense is a silver lining for my health


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
31 March 2020 13:19:39


 


im keeping an open mind. No-one can be 100% certain as to its origins.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


The RNA sequence can be compared to other viruses making it fairly certain where it came from. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:21:01

I think all of this comes down to a fundemental understanding of the pros and cons of central planning vs market forces.


Each are good at different things.


Market forces are good at 'predicting' what maximises demand but poor at aligning an objective where the consumer is incapable of judgeing quality whilst central forces are terrible at predicting consumer habbits but great at broad policy objectives.


The ideal system of government plays both to their advantages and coveres their flaws. In a sense the capitalism/socialism debate is wrong because it is based on the false premise that one is superior to the other. That is not true, they are both good but good at very different things.


In healthcare you want to find a way where you can align the broad objectives of improved healthcare for everyone (regardless of income) with the selective improvement that can come from market forces. It's a hard problem, but if it can be solved then everyone benefits.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
31 March 2020 13:24:04

I still think not much will change after this crisis, it will be forgotten relatively quickly (in just a few years).

Quantum
31 March 2020 13:25:45


I still think not much will change after this crisis, it will be forgotten relatively quickly (in just a few years).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I agree. My hope is that Cumming's whitehall revolution might be a start in the right direction though. The idea of more blue sky thinking and focus on long term problems (rather than just those that span the election cycle) seems like a necessary first step.


Regardless something really needs to be done about whitehall. Far too many twenty something oxford PPE graduates.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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