Day 8 of current restriction.........

The good news is, I’ll be working from home assembling the PPE equipment I posted about yesterday.  Materials are being delivered to me this morning and as yet, I have no idea what it entails but I’m up for it whatever!  It’s my war effort!  

This is the company I work for.  It’s a family run SME and if they can diversify, others can!https://www.printweek.com/news/article/prime-pulls-out-all-the-stops-to-produce-ppe-visors

That sounds perfect. 

Good luck!

That seems at odds with the other findings that suggest the virus can’t survive more than a few days on surfaces unless the equipment can detect even residual parts of inactive RNA?

It does seem odd, doesn't it?

Here's another snippet:

A spokesman for Eurofins said: “In rare occasions, delays in some orders may occur if based on Eurofins Genomics stringent quality and environmental control procedures, manufacturing of a product may not meet the quality or purity criteria set by Eurofins Genomics. 

“We are aware that contaminations of the nature you mentioned have been observed by several primers and probes manufacturers around the world after they produced SARS-COV2 positive controls. Those initial problems can be easily resolved by proper cleaning and production segregation procedures.”

Myanmar reporting it's first Covid death

More power to their elbow

There are many reports of the elderly being unable to secure delivery slots for supermarket shopping. Quite rightly those in society who have been identified as vulnerable should be prioritised, however the elderly, those with dementia or with severe mobility problems are equally needy but don't necessarily fulfill the current criteria.  Clearly supermarkets do not have the infrastructure in place to cope with something like a 10 fold increase in demand over such a short time frame, but one wonders what the impact will be if the current restrictions stay in place for an extended period.

A number of charities have been proactive in recruiting volunteers to provide support, but they must have finite resources.     

The Lancet has published the results of an in-depth study which looks at the Chinese outbreak. Well worth having a read here:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

For those who don't have time some of the key findings are...

Estimates of case fatality ratio

Overall 1023 44 672 (Crude) 2·29% (2·15–2·43) (Adjusted for censoring) 3·67% (3·56–3·80) (Adjusted for censoring, demography, and under-ascertainment)1·38% (1·23–1·53) (Infection fatality ratio) 0·657% (0·389–1·33)

Severe cases All cases Proportion of infected individuals hospitalised
0–9 years 0 13 0·00% (0·00–0·00)
10–19 years 1 50 0·0408% (0·0243–0·0832)
20–29 years 49 437 1·04% (0·622–2·13)
30–39 years 124 733 3·43% (2·04–7·00)
40–49 years 154 743 4·25% (2·53–8·68)
50–59 years 222 790 8·16% (4·86–16·7)
60–69 years 201 560 11·8% (7·01–24·0)
70–79 years 133 263 16·6% (9·87–33·8)
≥80 years 51 76 18·4% (11·0–37·6)

Remarkable economic recovery in China

Yes, I think this needs to be addressed. For example, someone here suggested that supermarkets should stay closed on Sundays in order to focus more on home deliveries, that obviously requires more vans and drivers, but why not. Their opening hours could be shortened slightly more too. 

I posted a while back that I'd come across the same sort of remarkable recovery after the Great Plague in London (1665, 30% fatality rate) and the Great Fire which devastated the City buildings a year later.  Let's hope we can repeat this in due course.

Two more of their findings:

• China CFR by age similar to other countries


• 17.8 days between onset of symptoms and death and 24.7 days for recovery (my comment: these numbers appear larger than for Italy) 

Indeed, but the speed of recovery in China is really impressive. Their PMI for March came much higher than any expectation.

I find that questionable given that every one of its export markets is suffering a sharp economic downturn and the Chinese economy is heavily dependent on exports.

I’d like to see other metrics that show the real position such as shipping prices and volumes, pollution and energy use etc.

Looking at our hospital admissions, it's hard not to expect our 'daily' number of deaths to rise much further in the next 2-3 weeks. I don't know where the ghastly peak will be and I hope I am wrong, but it could easily be close to 500. Again I think hospital admissions is the most important tracker.

The bloomberg article gives a bit more nuance, this is far from a return to normal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/china-s-factory-outlook-rebounds-strongly-despite-global-threat

And also those in the black economy who only do cash in hand will not be able to claim money, so the lockdown is not really in effect in many larger cities

By refusing to suspend the Hostile Environment and give *all* migrants automatic financial support, they government are putting us all in danger.

Someone's ability to survive shouldn't depend on their immigration status. Not during #COVID19, not ever.https://t.co/LVain5N89J

— Maya Goodfellow (@MayaGoodfellow) March 31, 2020

Presumably the virus is so ubiquitous that fragments of it, even if not viable, are getting everywhere and could provide false positives? It’s hard to tell from that but I assume false positives are the problem rather than a risk of infection per se. 

Nick Ferrari on LBC now calling for end to the lockdown and move to a Swedish style system!

Open the pubs!

4,615 new cases in Germany and 128 new deaths. It looks like the Germans were right to expect a significant rise in their deaths.