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SJV
31 March 2020 13:26:02


I still think not much will change after this crisis, it will be forgotten relatively quickly (in just a few years).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


We do a 'peasants, pestilence and plague' school topic every couple of years in upper KS2. Hopefully I can weave this sorry saga into the topic next time we run it 

bowser
31 March 2020 13:27:25


 


The RNA sequence can be compared to other viruses making it fairly certain where it came from. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


so is it 100% from the Wuhan wet market?

Northern Sky
31 March 2020 13:29:34


 


 


If it's an escaped  biological weapon, it's a pretty piss poor one.  Most biological weapons kill most of those that encounter them.  The spread is also augmented by being able to catch them by breathing them in long after the carrier has departed the area.   This one needs  water around it to survive.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


The point is it doesn't have to be a biological weapon. It can be an accidental escape of any virus that is being studied. The evidence shows that accidents in biotech labs are commonplace. Given the lax regulation and sheer proliferation of these labs it is only a matter of time before something of consequence happens.


This is not a conspiracy theory it is based on reliable evidence.


 

xioni2
31 March 2020 13:31:49


 The RNA sequence can be compared to other viruses making it fairly certain where it came from. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


This is an interesting read.

Phil G
31 March 2020 13:31:57


I still think not much will change after this crisis, it will be forgotten relatively quickly (in just a few years).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I'm not sure about that given we have a long way to go yet. The economic damage may still be felt in a few years, people still discuss the lesser financial crisis even now.

Quantum
31 March 2020 13:33:28


 


The point is it doesn't have to be a biological weapon. It can be an accidental escape of any virus that is being studied. The evidence shows that accidents in biotech labs are commonplace. Given the lax regulation and sheer proliferation of these labs it is only a matter of time before something of consequence happens.


This is not a conspiracy theory it is based on reliable evidence.


 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


It is still a conspiracy theory because there is no evidence it was an escaped bioweapon vs some natural mutation. But not all conspiracy theories are false.


A conspiracy theory, by definition, has no evidence because the evidence has been covered up. Of course that also makes it really easy to make conspiracy theories about anything. When someone asks 'why is there no evidence', of course there is no evidence because its a conspiracy theory. So because they are so easy to come up with the overwhelming majority will be wrong. However conspiracies do exist, every government on the planet hides information from the public. So there are bound to be occasions when a conspiracy theory is correct. Although any declassified evidence that proved such a theory correct would render the conspiracy theory no longer a conspiracy theory!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
31 March 2020 13:34:00

Emailed my MP this morning about the Danish technique and she has already responded that she is "feeding this in".


Here is more on the topic:


https://en.ssi.dk/news/news/2020/03-ssi--solves-essential-covid19-testing-deficiency-problem


 


New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
31 March 2020 13:40:13


 


For an American style system, it would be about 200%. We'd also need to forego universal coverage.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


We have to forgo universal coverage of every health condition whatever route we choose to follow. A blank cheque is by definition unaffordable.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
31 March 2020 13:44:56


Yep, I don't think an accidental release from a lab can be categorically ruled out.

bowser
31 March 2020 13:45:58


 


Yep, I don't think an accidental release from a lab can be categorically ruled out.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Agreed, I think we can rule out the bio-weapon theory, however.

Northern Sky
31 March 2020 13:47:25


 


It is still a conspiracy theory because there is no evidence it was an escaped bioweapon vs some natural mutation. But not all conspiracy theories are false.


A conspiracy theory, by definition, has no evidence because the evidence has been covered up. Of course that also makes it really easy to make conspiracy theories about anything. When someone asks 'why is there no evidence', of course there is no evidence because its a conspiracy theory. So because they are so easy to come up with the overwhelming majority will be wrong. However conspiracies do exist, every government on the planet hides information from the public. So there are bound to be occasions when a conspiracy theory is correct. Although any declassified evidence that proved such a theory correct would render the conspiracy theory no longer a conspiracy theory!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm not specifically talking about covid 19, I'm talking about the possibility of an escape from a biotech lab. Unsurprisingly it's almost impossible to find evidence of biotech incidents in private labs but I provided a link earlier which shows well over 300 such incidents recorded over a 5 year period in US government labs alone. 


Think about this logically, if there are that many incidents in government labs in the US where you would expect regulation to be extremely strict do you not think it is possible that these incidents could be repeated in other countries where regulation might not be as strict? Add to that the fact that there are thousands of private biotech labs all over the world which are not obliged to report incidents.


I'm not sure it's a conspiracy theory to suggest that the chances of accidental release are incredibly high, it's just a sober interpretation of the evidence.

Brian Gaze
31 March 2020 13:48:26

English death toll rises by 367 to 1,651


Sounds like a huge amount but the UK's stats are all over the place so I wouldn't read much into it. Likewise if they go down markedly tomorrow.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:48:50


 


Agreed, I think we can rule out the bio-weapon theory, however.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


I don't think we can rule anything out.


But it is true that indulging in conspiracy theories is not helpful, since there is no evidence for them we can't do anything about it even if it turns out to be true.


 


I'm working under the assumption that it's a virus of natural origin, as that's the most likely, but even if it was a bioweapon the nature of our response is going to be the same anyway.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
31 March 2020 13:49:54

Breaking: 367 new deaths in England

Essan
31 March 2020 13:50:49



Morrisons at least can supply a basic box will keep 2 going for a week and it's delivered by independent courier
https://www.morrisons.com/food-boxes/


Originally Posted by: four 



What I find most interesting about that is that 2 people can live comfortably on just £35 a week* (assuming no other bills) or, alternatively, a single parent and 2 children?

Though admittedly these boxes won't contact essentials like beer, wine, tobacco and take away pizzas.


* and I am pretty sure if you were able to shop for yourself you'd be able to but all the contents quite a bit cheaper



Okay, a bit off topic.  But maybe one benefit of this virus will be more people learning to cook for themselves and realising that they can survive on a lot less than they thought.



Edit: just to clarify, I do not mean to suggest that 2 people can, alternatively, live comfortably on just a single parent and 2 children a week


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
xioni2
31 March 2020 13:51:06


English death toll rises by 367 to 1,651


Sounds like a huge amount but the UK's stats are all over the place so I wouldn't read much into it. Likewise if they go down markedly tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It will rise further Brian, the admissions curve tells you most of what you need to know.

Quantum
31 March 2020 13:51:29


 


I'm not specifically talking about covid 19, I'm talking about the possibility of an escape from a biotech lab. Unsurprisingly it's almost impossible to find evidence of biotech incidents in private labs but I provided a link earlier which shows well over 300 such incidents recorded over a 5 year period in US government labs alone. 


Think about this logically, if there are that many incidents in government labs in the US where you would expect regulation to be extremely strict do you not think it is possible that these incidents could be repeated in other countries where regulation might not be as strict? Add to that the fact that there are thousands of private biotech labs all over the world which are not obliged to report incidents.


I'm not sure it's a conspiracy theory to suggest that the chances of accidental release are incredibly high, it's just a sober interpretation of the evidence.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Oh I definitely agree with that. The idea that such an incident is inconceivable seems akin to blind optimism.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 March 2020 13:52:51

Breaking: 393 deaths in the UK have been reported today.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
31 March 2020 13:53:14
Deaths data could include those from care homes etc. That was due to be released today.
Gavin D
31 March 2020 13:57:08
The patients who have died were between 19 and 98 years old and had underlying health conditions apart from 28 patients.

The 19-year-old who died did not have underlying health conditions.
Quantum
31 March 2020 13:58:26

The patients who have died were between 19 and 98 years old and had underlying health conditions apart from 28 patients.

The 19-year-old who died did not have underlying health conditions.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Are we sure this time?


That 21 YO that was in the news turned out to not have COVID after all.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
31 March 2020 13:58:32


Breaking: 393 deaths in the UK have been reported today.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Even allowing for the inconsistencies of the daily numbers, I think it's difficult for the 'daily peak' to be below 500. Hopefully the peak will occur within the next 2 weeks or so. At the moment hospital admissions double every 4 days or so, which is pretty bad.


 

xioni2
31 March 2020 14:00:16


 Are we sure this time?


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


There have been a few in Italy (very small number though).

Quantum
31 March 2020 14:00:58

Deaths do have a very large lag behind cases, I think its as high as nearly 3 weeks. Even confirmed cases will have a lag as they are more related to hospital admissions than symptoms developing.


When you include the incubation period the lag between confirmed cases and infections is probably about 2 weeks.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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