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Justin W
01 April 2020 11:39:40


 


Have they closed restaurants, shops etc.? Again I think we need to learn from them. Bring the number of new infections and hospitalisations down with the lockdown and then implement a massive test, trace and isolate programme (and close borders if necessary).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes that is possible but not viable if the Govt insists on continuing to lie about the extent of testing.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Brian Gaze
01 April 2020 11:41:55


 


Have they closed restaurants, shops etc.? Again I think we need to learn from them. Bring the number of new infections and hospitalisations down with the lockdown and then implement a massive test, trace and isolate programme (and close borders if necessary).


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


We need to massively expand testing - antigen and antibody - before the lockdown can be lifted. Instead of some elements of the Tory Party wittering on about the economy they would be better advised to expend their energies on sorting out the UK's testing fiasco. How on earth can the lockdown be lifted if we don't really know what is happening? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
01 April 2020 11:45:21


 


Why should the lockdown be tightened, is it not working?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Its a personal opinion


 


I don't know if it is or if it isn't and neither do the government what I will say is there are still thousands of people going to work and mingling at work , with that still going on it will take a lot longer to suffocate the virus 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
01 April 2020 11:47:06


 


The key thing for me is isolating the most vulnerable - not only does that keep people alive, but it reduces the pressure on the NHS.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


But two healthy teenagers have died ?


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
01 April 2020 11:47:23


We need to massively expand testing - antigen and antibody - before the lockdown can be lifted. Instead of some elements of the Tory Party wittering on about the economy they would be better advised to expend their energies on sorting out the UK's testing fiasco. How on earth can the lockdown be lifted if we don't really know what is happening? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It should be a no brainer...

Saint Snow
01 April 2020 11:47:37


Don't have a link but I read an article suggesting another problem with herd immunity. Apparently as immunity builds up in the population the virus is more likely to mutate and it could turn into something even worse. The same presumably applies to the vaccine solution. Ideally the virus would be suppressed in the same way that SARS was.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Studies show that successful mutations of other coronaviruses are far more likely to lead to a less deadly strains.


There's a lot of misunderstanding of how 'natural selection' works in practice. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Bolty
01 April 2020 11:48:52
The issue is, as this lockdown continues, people are going to start getting more and more agitated and frustrated to the point where they will start bending the rules on what they're allowed to do. Rather than going shopping twice a week or so, they'll start going every day. When they're doing their "daily exercise", they'll start popping in on a friend etc. I'm not the most social person in the world and I'm already getting fed up with it. I know it's necessary and I'll honour it at all costs, however long it is extended for, but other people won't and I suspect that number will increase as time goes on.

How does the government enforce this without people feeling their rights are infringed? Do we fine more, or do we start acting like it's a house arrest and have police patrolling every street? Will that lead to more frustration from people?
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Brian Gaze
01 April 2020 11:50:42


Studies show that successful mutations of other coronaviruses are far more likely to lead to a less deadly strains.


There's a lot of misunderstanding of how 'natural selection' works in practice. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Genuine question: Apart from SARS, MERS and the new corona virus what other examples are there? The common cold is the obvious one but I see no evidence that it has become either milder or more severe as it mutates? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
01 April 2020 11:52:28


 


We need to massively expand testing - antigen and antibody - before the lockdown can be lifted. Instead of some elements of the Tory Party wittering on about the economy they would be better advised to expend their energies on sorting out the UK's testing fiasco. How on earth can the lockdown be lifted if we don't really know what is happening? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Absolutely, squarely, nail on head.


The govt needs to be ordering hundreds of millions of antibody tests, to allow people to test themselves periodically.


The reason this virus is so dangerous is that a) it is contagious well before symptoms show; and b) not everyone infected has noticeable symptoms.


Assuming that having had the virus provides immunity (and virology experts pretty much universally believe it will - despite scaremongering from certain quarters) for anything upwards of 12-18 months at least, then those who have had the virus and recovered can begin bringing normality back to the country.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
01 April 2020 11:52:49


 


Sure, but there have were no lockdowns in Asia outside of China. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


They monitored borders, tested, isolated those positives, contact traced and isolated contacts, rinse and repeat. There were mini-lockdowns with school closures etc - but these varied from country to country.


Key point was that they did not just let people come and go unmonitored, which comes back to the question I put to my MP back in February as to why they were not port screening from the outset.


 

New world order coming.
Retron
01 April 2020 11:57:04


Assuming that having had the virus provides immunity (and virology experts pretty much universally believe it will - despite scaremongering from certain quarters) for anything upwards of 12-18 months at least, then those who have had the virus and recovered can begin bringing normality back to the country.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Indeed!


I remember last week the gov't said that the tests would be available this week, but of course that was rubbish. I do, however, hope they're available in another couple of weeks.


There will have to be some way of identifying those who've recovered, though, otherwise large numbers of uninfected people will doubtless go out and about when restrictions are eased...

Leysdown, north Kent
Maunder Minimum
01 April 2020 11:57:34


But two healthy teenagers have died ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Hopefully there will be full autopsies of those without obvious underlying conditions. It is possible for a young person to have a vulnerability of which they are unaware.

New world order coming.
Saint Snow
01 April 2020 12:03:20


 


Genuine question: Apart from SARS, MERS and the new corona virus what other examples are there? The common cold is the obvious one but I see no evidence that it has become either milder or more severe as it mutates? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


How do you know the 'common cold' didn't begin as a CV19-type deadly virus?


The fact is, a virus killing the host hugely decreases its chances of perpetuating life and reproducing. Natural selection will always favour the mutation that has the greatest opportunity to reproduce and spread.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
bowser
01 April 2020 12:04:19

I keep on seeing posts here and elsewhere about how we need to massively increase covid / antibody tests etc. However, what are the mechanics of actually obtaining these tests beyond simply "ordering them"? What is the global supply vs demand situation? Government spokespeople shouldn't be weaseling over the cracks, but if it was as simple as ordering them, then surely it would have been done by now?

Saint Snow
01 April 2020 12:07:45


 


Hopefully there will be full autopsies of those without obvious underlying conditions. It is possible for a young person to have a vulnerability of which they are unaware.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


I know there's previously been issues with Muslim (and Jewish) families forbidding full autopsies on dead relatives in the past. Quite why religious mumbo-jumbo takes precedence of over laws that are in place for specific reasons is beyond me.


But in this case, due to the potential importance in the fight against CV19, any requests for no autopsy on the grounds of religious dickheadery need to be overruled by the authorities.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Maunder Minimum
01 April 2020 12:09:37


I keep on seeing posts here and elsewhere about how we need to massively increase covid / antibody tests etc. However, what are the mechanics of actually obtaining these tests beyond simply "ordering them"? What is the global supply vs demand situation? Government spokespeople shouldn't be weaseling over the cracks, but if it was as simple as ordering them, then surely it would have been done by now?


Originally Posted by: bowser 


From what I have read, there are a number of components required for the standard testing regimes and there are shortages in more than one sector - including the swabs themselves. Indeed, similar problems are affecting other countries too, such as France where Macron has declared that France must become self sufficient in the ability to produce such essential items as PPE and test kits for viruses in future.


But I don't know why the UK does not follow the Danish approach of using low tech. boiling techniques - not as 100% reliable as the chemical reagent methods, but could be used to plug the gaps.


 

New world order coming.
Saint Snow
01 April 2020 12:09:52


I keep on seeing posts here and elsewhere about how we need to massively increase covid / antibody tests etc. However, what are the mechanics of actually obtaining these tests beyond simply "ordering them"? What is the global supply vs demand situation? Government spokespeople shouldn't be weaseling over the cracks, but if it was as simple as ordering them, then surely it would have been done by now?


Originally Posted by: bowser 


 


They ordered 3.5m.


There's apparently (so were told...) tests being developed & manufactured in the UK. There needs to be a massive expansion of this, and making the tests widely available needs to be one strand of key focus.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Phil G
01 April 2020 12:09:54

Interesting comment last night on the phone from my 90 year old Mum who has lived on her own for 8 years is that she has got used to being on her own, but can 'sympathise' with those who having to do this for the first time. There are those of us who cannot stand not having a chat and meeting people a number of times on a daily basis, while some are 'quite happy' for some peace and quiet.

I think we need to close our borders completely, keep the measures going for now but the key is testing to fight this invisible thing. Until that is achieved at a much higher level we are blind to this.

With proper controls and behaviours, this can be managed. When things are under control, businesses should start to reopen but the testing has to continue to isolate further outbreaks. Like the financial crisis there is also a great danger if we turn the taps off for too long, the recovery will take much much longer.

Rob K
01 April 2020 12:24:31


Don't have a link but I read an article suggesting another problem with herd immunity. Apparently as immunity builds up in the population the virus is more likely to mutate and it could turn into something even worse. The same presumably applies to the vaccine solution. Ideally the virus would be suppressed in the same way that SARS was.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As I understand it viruses tend to preferentially mutate into less deadly forms. It doesn’t benefit the virus to kill the host: it’s better for the virus if the host remains well enough to spread it widely. (I know that’s a very oversimplistic description of what’s going on!)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
01 April 2020 12:28:38


Interesting comment last night on the phone from my 90 year old Mum who has lived on her own for 8 years is that she has got used to being on her own, but can 'sympathise' with those who having to do this for the first time. There are those of us who cannot stand not having a chat and meeting people a number of times on a daily basis, while some are 'quite happy' for some peace and quiet.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Yes I definitely fit in the latter category, quite enjoying the time at home and not having to rush here there and everywhere all the time (for most of the past 20 years I have spent three hours a day commuting and have hardly been at home in daylight hours during the week). My wife by contrast is getting really quite depressed about not being able to go out and see her friends in person. 


BTW regarding the test numbers I saw on a story about the BBC DJ Ace who has recovered from the virus that he was tested on March 23 and didn’t get the positive result until March 30. So even if we are only seeing 7,000 test results that may be representing tests done a week or more ago. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
springsunshine
01 April 2020 12:31:21

The issue is, as this lockdown continues, people are going to start getting more and more agitated and frustrated to the point where they will start bending the rules on what they're allowed to do. Rather than going shopping twice a week or so, they'll start going every day. When they're doing their "daily exercise", they'll start popping in on a friend etc. I'm not the most social person in the world and I'm already getting fed up with it. I know it's necessary and I'll honour it at all costs, however long it is extended for, but other people won't and I suspect that number will increase as time goes on.

How does the government enforce this without people feeling their rights are infringed? Do we fine more, or do we start acting like it's a house arrest and have police patrolling every street? Will that lead to more frustration from people?

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Spot on Bolty.


People are going along with this and 99.9% of the population are doing whats been asked of them but they won`t put up with it for an extended period of time especially if this continues into the simmer. There will have to be a relaxation of most of the rules before long otherwise there will be civil unrest and riots.We as a nation have gone from a free democracy to worse than living in the Soviet union within a week.


To all those saying lockdown should be tightened and basically go on forever,remember the longer it goes on and the economy is on life support then there will be further and further cuts to the nhs and might get the point it ceases to exist. Without a strong and active economy there can be NO universal health care!


Both democracy and the NHS could become the biggest victims of this virus.


As i keep saying we cannot let the remedy be worse than the disease.


 

Joe Bloggs
01 April 2020 12:35:14


 


Spot on Bolty.


People are going along with this and 99.9% of the population are doing whats been asked of them but they won`t put up with it for an extended period of time especially if this continues into the simmer. There will have to be a relaxation of most of the rules before long otherwise there will be civil unrest and riots.We as a nation have gone from a free democracy to worse than living in the Soviet union within a week.


To all those saying lockdown should be tightened and basically go on forever,remember the longer it goes on and the economy is on life support then there will be further and further cuts to the nhs and might get the point it ceases to exist. Without a strong and active economy there can be NO universal health care!


Both democracy and the NHS could become the biggest victims of this virus.


As i keep saying we cannot let the remedy be worse than the disease.


 


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


It’s just such a difficult balance. 


My thoughts are that we should maintain the lockdown UNTIL we have a more effective treatment and/or a vaccine. The former may come much more quickly than the latter. The longevity would be worth it. Personally I hope to contract this virus once there is much more knowledge within the NHS and the scientific community, as the chances of you being looked after more effectively will be much higher. 


But I do some have sympathy with your post. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Phil G
01 April 2020 12:35:22


 


BTW regarding the test numbers I saw on a story about the BBC DJ Ace who has recovered from the virus that he was tested on March 23 and didn’t get the positive result until March 30. So even if we are only seeing 7,000 test results that may be representing tests done a week or more ago. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes a lot can happen in a week, makes them pretty useless if we are to manage this thing. Results need to be known there and then really if we want to take the fight to this.

doctormog
01 April 2020 12:35:32


 


Spot on Bolty.


People are going along with this and 99.9% of the population are doing whats been asked of them but they won`t put up with it for an extended period of time especially if this continues into the simmer. There will have to be a relaxation of most of the rules before long otherwise there will be civil unrest and riots.We as a nation have gone from a free democracy to worse than living in the Soviet union within a week.


To all those saying lockdown should be tightened and basically go on forever,remember the longer it goes on and the economy is on life support then there will be further and further cuts to the nhs and might get the point it ceases to exist. Without a strong and active economy there can be NO universal health care!


Both democracy and the NHS could become the biggest victims of this virus.


As i keep saying we cannot let the remedy be worse than the disease.


 


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


I thought those advocating a tighter lockdown were doing so as they believe it would end up having to be for a shorter duration?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
xioni2
01 April 2020 12:41:07
The lockdowns are desperate measures and almost medieval in nature. They are also proof of our (and Europe's) failure to handle this early like the Asian countries did. There is evidence that they work though and Italy will probably soon confirm this.

If we don't setup a large test and trace programme, then the lockdown will last much longer than necessary or repeated at will until mass vaccination is available. Even having a billion antibody tests won't do us any good if we don't have a proper trace and isolate programme in order to break the transmission chains. The Chinese used 1800 teams of 5 staff each in Wuhan alone and they stopped the contagion.
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