They seem to be on the right side of the curve now!  
How many days have their new cases been going down now?

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If I have understood the reports from Italy correctly, while the situation there is still far from good things do seems to be calming down at least a bit there now compared to what had been the case recently.

It could be that the strict lockdown & social distancing measures in place there are now starting to have some effect in terms of slowing the thing down; let's hope that the same thing starts to happen in the UK soon.

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He did come across better than his chief. 

I'm told there has been a big police operation to move people who have driven up to Ashridge this afternoon. The weekend and warm weather haven't even started yet.

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/ashridge-estate 

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Surprised no one has commented on this yet:

He [Hancock]  says no G7 country has found a home antibody test that works yet, "but we continue to search for one".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52146227

 

 

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Van Tam contradicts what has been said previously. Absolutely staggering. 

'We will stick with the science and see
Contrary to previous briefings from within Government, Prof Van Tam said it still too early to say when the peak of the coronavirus outbreak is expected:

“We don’t know the answer to that just yet. We have always said that we will know when our social distancing measures have worked in a few weeks.

"It is too early to say.

"We will not take any premature actions but we will stick with the science and see.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-tests-deaths-nhs-nightingale-hospital/

 

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Any prediction about a peak is only ever a best guess and cannot and must not be set in stone. Giving a definitive date rather than an estimate would be scientifically nonsensical.

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Absolutely. It makes one wonder why at previous briefings the experts have been more forthcoming. It just makes them look ridiculous. I would have thought they have been through media training.

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I can quite believe it !

On my afternoon perambulation it was pretty hectic.  Everyone was maintaining social distancing (more or less).  I had a 2M chat with the landowner who was seriously worried about the numbers and behaviour.  They are starting spraying this weekend and  people are wandering around all over the place like headless chicken and not sticking to the foot paths.   I know the ins and outs and  have trudged around the area for 2 decades.  In more normal times it's rare to see anyone and the few you do see are familiar faces who do similar trudges.  Because there is nothing else to do,  everyone is now going "for a nice walk".  Given the weather forecast for the weekend  I'll time shift to "sparrows fart"  I think and  give the village a wide berth.

 

 

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Problems with this disease are that it is relatively easy to catch, has quite a long incubation period and some people show few if any symptoms. These give it the potential to spread rapidly below the radar before you realise that things are going tits-up and you may have a couple of weeks of exponential growth before any measures you take have an effect. I read the below story earlier on - assuming it is correct then its quite shocking given what we know now. Even worse is that although IMO the government was slow/complacent in the early stages, even what advice they did give was not always being followed. Its always easy in hindsight but surely more care should have been taken here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/01/i-returned-thailand-january-with-fever-103-i-wasnt-tested-coronavirus/

Isn't it true that there is still no reliable test?

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It could well be true but to me it sounds like Hancock now thinks one is still a way off. Even if one is approved next week it is hard to image scaling up tests massively before June. 

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  Yes, let’s hope so!  

It’s encouraging but we have a way to go yet though.  I would think it will be another week or so before we see the results of social distancing.  Then our number of new cases should fall, then it’ll be another week before we see a lowering of death rates. 

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There was a group of louts failing to social distance on the grass opposite earlier. They were driving quad bikes and mini motorbikes. A police car drove straight on by.

I think the warm weather is going to prove to be disastrous. The government yet again will behind the curve. They should have locked down harder ahead of the weekend.

Proactive instead of reactive.

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Which is why they should spread the shopping out otherwise you will get congestion , no everyone can just waltz out of work saying 

 

" just off to do the shopping "

 

To increase the home shopping is even harder and more expensive - take Iceland ( Banbury )  they employ two drivers and they struggle on a standard day , they need extra vans and drivers , not going to happen 

 

 

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You may well be right Mark. For the first time since the lockdown has started, I will not go out this weekend. I know I am lucky though to have a garden. 

(for the 3rd time) the idea is to get your shopping delivered at your home. 

I'm with you Mark and with the weather forecast set fair and warmish in the coming week , its going to be tough , a harder lockdown is needed IMO

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Closing supermarkets on a sunday would see mass panic buying and many would wrongly see that step as things really turning bad.If anything the sunday trading laws need to be suspended and supermarkets allowed to open normal hours on sunday.

As regard home deliveries how about deliveries around the clock 24/7 that would achieve more people getting a delivery rather than a few extra hours on a sunday.

And for the 4th time ………….not enough drivers and not enough vans , there has been a 400% increase in demand ………..theory and practice Im afraid , tell me where the extra drivers and vans are coming from .

Its not rocket science , are you  expecting the logistics to be set in place ………….not going to happen

 

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Not doing as well as other countries at not attending parks.

 

NEW: in the @10DowningStreet press conference, a slide showed Britons adhering to lockdown by staying home.

I’ve got the same @Google source data, and people in UK & US are still out and about much more than elsewhere...

(and no, I’m not a cop 🚨)

More: https://t.co/Rt0ecNuc39 pic.twitter.com/y7R3pURoGN

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 3, 2020

Yep , fair shout , and you are correct shutting on Sundays would make things worse , its ok people saying ….adapt , well that's easy to type but very difficult to carry out 

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People in the UK are allowed to go out for exercise so why wouldn't they visit their local park?

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Bear in mind that a lot of people travel across the world in late December/January either to be on holiday, or to come home for Christmas and Hogmanay.  Later in January/early February, the Chinese were getting home, or away to celebrate the Chinese New Year!  

So there was a lot of world travel, particularly to and from Asian countries, just at the time Covid19 was being recognised as dangerous and at a time when we Brits harbour colds and flu!  A lot of opportunities for it to spread, even unnoticed for a week or two!  

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I agree Marcus. As I've continually pointed out the increased demand by all accounts is 10 fold. The infrastracture is simply not there. And FWIW nobody could have anticipated nor put provisions in place for this, given the lack of evidence that the would become such a nationwide problem 5 or 6 months ago, which is the time frame that would be necessary to build the delivery structure.  

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