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Gavin D
06 April 2020 18:31:47

The regional breakdown shows both London and the Midlands have now recorded over 1000 deaths



  • London - 1,482

  • Midlands - 1,054

  • North East & Yorkshire - 612

  • North West - 552

  • South East - 485

  • East of England - 462 

  • South West - 250

xioni2
06 April 2020 18:32:08


Anyhow, we are now betweem Scylla and Chaybdis - either we completely trash the economy, or we ease up on the lockdown.


Interesting article here:


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Very interesting answers  from a panel of 40 economists. Question: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk. ~90% agree and just 10% is uncertain. Nobody disagrees!


Joe Bloggs
06 April 2020 18:35:20


 


I have a holiday bookrd in inland Spain in mid September. I have completely written it off. Not a hope in hell of getting to Spain, maybe for two years, maybe more. Any Country that has been through what Spain has and gets clear will not open its borders until it is virtually eliminated worldwide either by herd immunity or vaccination. Maybe they will for business but holiday makers from around the World? I can't see it. India and Africa have got to get through this yet. How long will that take?


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I’m not sure about 2 years. Remember just how important tourism is to the Spanish economy. 


I’m not for a second downplaying what the country is going through, as it is utterly horrendous. But I think even Spain and Italy will want to return to relative normality once they can do so, safely.


I also have a holiday booked to Spain in September. I haven’t COMPLETELY written it off yet but agree it is looking more and more unlikely. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

xioni2
06 April 2020 18:38:08


 I have a holiday bookrd in inland Spain in mid September. I have completely written it off. Not a hope in hell of getting to Spain, maybe for two years, maybe more. Any Country that has been through what Spain has and gets clear will not open its borders until it is virtually eliminated worldwide either by herd immunity or vaccination. Maybe they will for business but holiday makers from around the World? I can't see it. India and Africa have got to get through this yet. How long will that take?


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


I am pretty confident that tourism in Europe will be back to almost normal in summer 2021. In fact, it could well be the busiest summer on record as people will have missed their favourite destinations.

Maunder Minimum
06 April 2020 18:42:19


 


Very interesting answers  from a panel of 40 economists. Question: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk. ~90% agree and just 10% is uncertain. Nobody disagrees!



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


It is still a debate to be had and it will only get more intense as time progresses. In any statistical cost/benefit analysis, there comes a tipping point where the damage being caused by the lock-down is worse for the people as a whole, than maintaining it.


We should have sent epidemiologists and civil servants from PHE and the Home Office to Taiwan in January - they have set the gold standard in protecting their own population.


 


New world order coming.
Joe Bloggs
06 April 2020 18:42:45

Am I right in thinking the COVID-19 is struggling to spread and kill as many people in SE Asia? 


The figures from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia seem relatively small. I’m guessing it’s fairly well established now that there is a climatic element? Or related to UV? 


Given how densely populated these countries are, and given the strong links to China, these countries seem to be getting off relatively lightly. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Maunder Minimum
06 April 2020 18:44:45


 


 


I am pretty confident that tourism in Europe will be back to almost normal in summer 2021. In fact, it could well be the busiest summer on record as people will have missed their favourite destinations.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


That depends on there being an effective, long lasting and available vaccine for the mass market well before then. I would hazard a guess that by summer 2021, people will still be extremely cautious and it is by no means guaranteed that herd immunity, either by contagion or vaccine, will have been achieved by then. I would put your confidence back 12 months if I were you - yes, your prediction could well be the case by summer of 2022.


 


New world order coming.
Bugglesgate
06 April 2020 18:46:38


I am pretty confident that tourism in Europe will be back to almost normal in summer 2021. In fact, it could well be the busiest summer on record as people will have missed their favourite destinations.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


I think you are dismissing the economic mayhem, that   will ensue in the wake of this.  I just can't see us coming out of this   into some kind of boom where everyone starts buying holidays...,.. or much else beyond essentials  for the matter.  The  unemployment rate will be horrendous and there will be a  hell of a hangover once the Govt. stops   supporting everything.


 


 


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
fairweather
06 April 2020 18:49:14


 


Make that 4 of us


Madrid end of April, Algarve end of May and Turkey end of October (this may still happen - perhaps)



 


 


Originally Posted by: Roonie 


That's a lot of holidays! Is your first name Wayne? 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
06 April 2020 18:51:16


Am I right in thinking the COVID-19 is struggling to spread and kill as many people in SE Asia? 


The figures from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia seem relatively small. I’m guessing it’s fairly well established now that there is a climatic element? Or related to UV? 


Given how densely populated these countries are, and given the strong links to China, these countries seem to be getting off relatively lightly. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Indeed, but I don't think the reason is the climate, it probably has more to do with the way they handled it. Just look in Europe, the epidemic has been going on for more then 2 months in Greece and they still have 79 deaths. Many eastern European countries (which closed their borders early and enforced lockdowns) have less than 50 deaths. 

fairweather
06 April 2020 18:54:52

This is true for the risk of getting infected vs the number of new people getting it but the deaths themselves are close to real time numbers (I assume a death gets reported within 2 days) and the biggest drain on ICU resources would presumably be just before they died.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 18:56:06


I think you are dismissing the economic mayhem, that   will ensue in the wake of this.  I just can't see us coming out of this   into some kind of boom where everyone starts buying holidays...,.. or much else beyond essentials  for the matter.  The  unemployment rate will be horrendous and there will be a  hell of a hangover once the Govt. stops   supporting everything.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Enthusiasts for weather "pattern matching" on the TWO forum may be interested in this concept.


"The Black Death (1347-1350) was a pandemic that devastated the populations of Europe and Asia. The plague was an unprecedented human tragedy in Italy. It not only shook Italian society but transformed it. The Black Death marked an end of an era in Italy, its impact was profound, and it resulted in wide-ranging social, economic, cultural and religious changes. These changes, directly and indirectly, led to the emergence of the Renaissance, one of the greatest epochs for art, architecture, and literature in human history."


https://dailyhistory.org/How_did_the_Bubonic_Plague_make_the_Italian_Renaissance_possible%3F


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
xioni2
06 April 2020 18:58:24


 I think you are dismissing the economic mayhem, that   will ensue in the wake of this.  I just can't see us coming out of this   into some kind of boom where everyone starts buying holidays...,.. or much else beyond essentials  for the matter.  The  unemployment rate will be horrendous and there will be a  hell of a hangover once the Govt. stops   supporting everything.


 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Yes good point, perhaps people will just downgrade. The villa will become a hotel room, the latter a tent and so on 

noodle doodle
06 April 2020 19:03:28


Am I right in thinking the COVID-19 is struggling to spread and kill as many people in SE Asia? 


The figures from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia seem relatively small. I’m guessing it’s fairly well established now that there is a climatic element? Or related to UV? 


Given how densely populated these countries are, and given the strong links to China, these countries seem to be getting off relatively lightly. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Italy over 65s: 21.7%


Vietnam over 65s: 6.5%


 


Explains some of it


 


Also, less foreign travel in or out


 


Also suspect many poorer nations may not be testing for Corona involvement in deaths universally - tests cost money

Gavin D
06 April 2020 19:11:23


Coronavirus: 1.3 billion smokers urged to quit to reduce COVID-19 risks




Quote

 


All smokers have been urged to quit their habit and cigarette companies have been told to stop producing and selling tobacco during the coronavirus pandemic. Professor John Newton, Public Health England's director of health, said "there has never been a more important time to stop smoking, not only for your own health but to protect those around you". COVID-19 attacks the respiratory system and smoking can cause damage to the lungs and airways.


PHE officials also highlighted a survey from Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began, which found smokers who developed COVID-19 were 14 times more likely to develop severe disease. As well as smoking, the study found age, maximum body temperature on admission and respiratory failure were among other significant factors. The study took place between 30 December last year and 15 January 2020 and was published in the Chinese Medical Journal. An additional warning for smokers from PHE is that the virus can be given an easier route of entry into a person's body during the act of smoking which sees the smoker repeatedly raise their hands to their mouth.


 





https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-13-billion-smokers-urged-to-quit-to-reduce-covid-19-risks-11969444?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter


Quantum
06 April 2020 19:13:25

I think we need to prepare ourselves for the worst possible outcome because to me his trajectory seems to be going in that direction.


I know this sounds morbid but I do feel it is now the most likely outcome.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 19:13:59

It's just hit home to me just how close it is. I have in the last fifteen minutes had a distraught phone call from my ex wife saying that her best friend has today succumbed to what she thinks was COVID 19. To cap it she also has had a fever and possible symptoms in recent days and is obviously not at work.


Just had a text a few seconds ago saying another friend whose hubby I met a few months ago is also showing symptoms.


If anything needs be reiterated it really is stay at home as much as possible.


Another text a few seconds ago -  her doctor has just told her she is to self isolate for 14 days.


Nick


 


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Gavin D
06 April 2020 19:14:09
Breaking: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care.
fairweather
06 April 2020 19:16:01


I just watched the Queen's message, what a class act. Even if great speech writers have been involved, the delivery was exemplary.


Very inspiring.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Incredibly composed, especially considering her age.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 April 2020 19:16:44

Breaking: Boris Johnson moved to intensive care.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes.  I just heard that. I really hope to goodness he pulls through!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gavin D
06 April 2020 19:17:02

Dominic Raab will take over where necessary


Ulric
06 April 2020 19:18:49


Anyhow, we are now betweem Scylla and Chaybdis - either we completely trash the economy, or we ease up on the lockdown.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


So, you want freedom of movement and closed borders?


At least you're consistent.


 


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gavin D
06 April 2020 19:19:12

  • PM moved to the ICU at St Thomas’ around 7pm

  • Decision made by PM’s medical team after his condition worsened over afternoon

  • PM asked the Foreign Secretary to deputise for him where necessary

  • PM remains conscious. Moved as precaution should he require ventilation

Heavy Weather 2013
06 April 2020 19:19:22
This is shocking news. I cannot believe it.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
06 April 2020 19:20:21

This is desperate for us , I really hope he pulls through.


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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