The regional breakdown shows both London and the Midlands have now recorded over 1000 deaths

• London - 1,482


• Midlands - 1,054


• North East & Yorkshire - 612


• North West - 552


• South East - 485


• East of England - 462 


• South West - 250

Very interesting answers  from a panel of 40 economists. Question: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk. ~90% agree and just 10% is uncertain. Nobody disagrees!

I’m not sure about 2 years. Remember just how important tourism is to the Spanish economy. 

I’m not for a second downplaying what the country is going through, as it is utterly horrendous. But I think even Spain and Italy will want to return to relative normality once they can do so, safely.

I also have a holiday booked to Spain in September. I haven’t COMPLETELY written it off yet but agree it is looking more and more unlikely. 

I am pretty confident that tourism in Europe will be back to almost normal in summer 2021. In fact, it could well be the busiest summer on record as people will have missed their favourite destinations.

It is still a debate to be had and it will only get more intense as time progresses. In any statistical cost/benefit analysis, there comes a tipping point where the damage being caused by the lock-down is worse for the people as a whole, than maintaining it.

We should have sent epidemiologists and civil servants from PHE and the Home Office to Taiwan in January - they have set the gold standard in protecting their own population.

Am I right in thinking the COVID-19 is struggling to spread and kill as many people in SE Asia? 

The figures from Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia seem relatively small. I’m guessing it’s fairly well established now that there is a climatic element? Or related to UV? 

Given how densely populated these countries are, and given the strong links to China, these countries seem to be getting off relatively lightly. 

That depends on there being an effective, long lasting and available vaccine for the mass market well before then. I would hazard a guess that by summer 2021, people will still be extremely cautious and it is by no means guaranteed that herd immunity, either by contagion or vaccine, will have been achieved by then. I would put your confidence back 12 months if I were you - yes, your prediction could well be the case by summer of 2022.

I think you are dismissing the economic mayhem, that   will ensue in the wake of this.  I just can't see us coming out of this   into some kind of boom where everyone starts buying holidays...,.. or much else beyond essentials  for the matter.  The  unemployment rate will be horrendous and there will be a  hell of a hangover once the Govt. stops   supporting everything.

That's a lot of holidays! Is your first name Wayne? 

Indeed, but I don't think the reason is the climate, it probably has more to do with the way they handled it. Just look in Europe, the epidemic has been going on for more then 2 months in Greece and they still have 79 deaths. Many eastern European countries (which closed their borders early and enforced lockdowns) have less than 50 deaths. 

This is true for the risk of getting infected vs the number of new people getting it but the deaths themselves are close to real time numbers (I assume a death gets reported within 2 days) and the biggest drain on ICU resources would presumably be just before they died.

Enthusiasts for weather "pattern matching" on the TWO forum may be interested in this concept.

"The Black Death (1347-1350) was a pandemic that devastated the populations of Europe and Asia. The plague was an unprecedented human tragedy in Italy. It not only shook Italian society but transformed it. The Black Death marked an end of an era in Italy, its impact was profound, and it resulted in wide-ranging social, economic, cultural and religious changes. These changes, directly and indirectly, led to the emergence of the Renaissance, one of the greatest epochs for art, architecture, and literature in human history."

https://dailyhistory.org/How_did_the_Bubonic_Plague_make_the_Italian_Renaissance_possible%3F

Yes good point, perhaps people will just downgrade. The villa will become a hotel room, the latter a tent and so on 

Italy over 65s: 21.7%

Vietnam over 65s: 6.5%

Explains some of it

Also, less foreign travel in or out

Also suspect many poorer nations may not be testing for Corona involvement in deaths universally - tests cost money

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Coronavirus: 1.3 billion smokers urged to quit to reduce COVID-19 risks

Quote

 

All smokers have been urged to quit their habit and cigarette companies have been told to stop producing and selling tobacco during the coronavirus pandemic. Professor John Newton, Public Health England's director of health, said "there has never been a more important time to stop smoking, not only for your own health but to protect those around you". COVID-19 attacks the respiratory system and smoking can cause damage to the lungs and airways.

PHE officials also highlighted a survey from Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began, which found smokers who developed COVID-19 were 14 times more likely to develop severe disease. As well as smoking, the study found age, maximum body temperature on admission and respiratory failure were among other significant factors. The study took place between 30 December last year and 15 January 2020 and was published in the Chinese Medical Journal. An additional warning for smokers from PHE is that the virus can be given an easier route of entry into a person's body during the act of smoking which sees the smoker repeatedly raise their hands to their mouth.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-13-billion-smokers-urged-to-quit-to-reduce-covid-19-risks-11969444?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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I think we need to prepare ourselves for the worst possible outcome because to me his trajectory seems to be going in that direction.

I know this sounds morbid but I do feel it is now the most likely outcome.

It's just hit home to me just how close it is. I have in the last fifteen minutes had a distraught phone call from my ex wife saying that her best friend has today succumbed to what she thinks was COVID 19. To cap it she also has had a fever and possible symptoms in recent days and is obviously not at work.

Just had a text a few seconds ago saying another friend whose hubby I met a few months ago is also showing symptoms.

If anything needs be reiterated it really is stay at home as much as possible.

Another text a few seconds ago -  her doctor has just told her she is to self isolate for 14 days.

Nick

Incredibly composed, especially considering her age.

Dominic Raab will take over where necessary

So, you want freedom of movement and closed borders?

At least you're consistent.

• PM moved to the ICU at St Thomas’ around 7pm


• Decision made by PM’s medical team after his condition worsened over afternoon


• PM asked the Foreign Secretary to deputise for him where necessary


• PM remains conscious. Moved as precaution should he require ventilation

This is desperate for us , I really hope he pulls through.