Lame

Yes that is largely true Roger. I believe the concerns would be the documented level of effectiveness for COVID-19 as only small scale studies will have been carried out to date. Given the mechanism of action of the drug and the nature of the pathology of the disease it cannot be assumed that because it is seemingly safe for one condition it will also be safe for the current one. It would be risky to say the least to come to that conclusion.

I recall a few times in the past in the lab looking at all the literature and saying to myself “it is obvious what this drug is going to do” before even starting a study then being surprised/confused upon carrying out the practical work and discovering it either did nothing or more worryingly something different to what was expected.

I hope that with the PM, hospitalisation has been so quick that it heads off the rapid descent that so many others experience after two weeks of illness. That he only required 4 litres of oxygen overnight sounds like a positive.

Never, ever, underestimate the rapacious greed of the US medical treatment sales system.

My dad’s an ER doctor. He just got off of a conference call. His hospital is cutting his salary - and everyone else’s that works on the front lines - because they’re losing money from non-COVID patients.

Cutting medical personnels’ salaries right now. I mean... what the fuck?

— Cameron Beach (@CameronNBeach) April 3, 2020

Again, a really helpful contribution, as ever.

At least I don’t disseminate false information, eh?

Dont get me wrong I am not defending or denying the financial-centred nature of the US healthcare system but I don’t think it is the only or indeed main factor here.

Can anyone explain this to me? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783

"Countries like the UK that have closed schools to help stop the spread of coronavirus should ask hard questions about whether this is now the right policy, says one team of scientists." 

How is putting lots of young people together in the same place and then dispersing them again back to their families not going to spread the virus? 

My school is currently closed for Easter but we have been open to a few children with staff working on a rota basis. I work in a SEN school and our children have no idea about social distancing or even basic hygiene. We have been issued with no protection and yet we are told that children who have the virus are usually asymptomatic but infectious. None of the staff want to return to work after Easter because - quite rightly imo - they are frightened for themselves and their families. 

The Guardian are reporting sources from the hospital saying Boris has received 4 litres of Oxygen the normal threshold for intensive care is 15 litres

"St Thomas’ hospital sources have told the Times that Johnson was not put on a ventilator but did require 4 litres of oxygen. The following account tallies with what Gove told the Today programme:

Mr Johnson, 55, had not been intubated — where a tube is inserted into the windpipe before ventilation — but needed four litres of oxygen in intensive care, sources at the hospital said. The normal threshold for intensive care is 15 litres, suggesting that he was in better health than such patients generally.

The Guardian has been told that a hospital bed was being prepared for Johnson as early as last Thursday:

The first indication that Boris Johnson was sicker with coronavirus than either he or his aides were letting on came on Thursday morning. The suggestion made by a source was specific: a bed was being prepared at St Thomas’ hospital for the prime minister, whose condition had worsened during his seven-day period of isolation in Downing Street."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/07/uk-coronavirus-live-news-boris-johnson-spends-night-in-intensive-care

An unusually good piece from Lord Hague in the Tele today:

China is emerging from the coronavirus crisis as an even more powerful opponent

The West must take a firmer line, while recognising that the world’s problems cannot be solved without Beijing

The greatest irony of the coronavirus crisis is that it shows every sign of working to China’s geopolitical advantage. Six months from now, the country where the virus was born and that initially suppressed the news of it has every chance of being more powerful.

There are many reasons for this. The most immediately apparent is that the Chinese economy looks likely to recover more rapidly than that of any nation in the West. The very same totalitarianism that led to cover-up and denial at the beginning has permitted ruthlessly effective suppression of the virus once its potency was acknowledged. China has managed to confine the infection to certain areas, while any hope of doing that in Britain or America has been abandoned. The initial data suggests a quick rebound in Chinese industrial production, while every week of lockdown makes that less likely here.

The second reason is the extraordinary absence of global leadership from the US. President Trump has declined even to encourage American states to act together against Covid-19, let alone to orchestrate any co-ordinated international response. One of the reasons that the G20 leaders took so long to hold a video conference – weeks after the scale of the crisis became apparent – was apparently that the White House discouraged Saudi Arabia from hosting it. In every critical global moment since 1945, nations on every continent have been able to look to America for a lead. This time they have had the appalling spectacle of the problem being derided as a hoax, followed by some conspicuous efforts to re-direct some vital supplies from others and no attempt to lead a united international response. Such a terrible vacuum leaves the space for others, including rivals, to expand their role.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/06/china-emerging-coronavirus-crisis-even-powerful-opponent/

Neither do I.

You have an issue with having the last word, don't you? Doesn't matter what the subject is - you just can't prevent that overbearing, hectoring, condescending and patronising inner prefect taking control. Were you made to dance on the boiler at boarding school?

Psychotherapy might be a way forward. Just saying.

The threshold for shifting Johnson to ICU will be lower than for us plebs. Therefore, one would assume the percentage chance of him pulling through is somewhat higher than the raw stats how. 

Apparently the reason he was moved was so he would have rapid access to more oxygen if it were needed.

It does seem a bit shortsighted to me!

Before the closure came in, we were remarking at our school that the likelihood of the virus spreading with 200 staff and 1650 students would be very high - especially as most of those would pass each other in corridors and on the playground several times a day! Even if the kids had no ill-effects at all, they would still be able to pass it on to the staff and associated families.

Yes, I agree.

It is clear that the Chinese government has been in an almost uniquely strong position to respond effectively to the present crisis. I stress that doesn't make it a good government but it does show that it has strengths, including an ability to protect it's people and prosperity, which seems to be sadly lacking in the West.

By contrast, the anarcho-capitalist systems have performed spectacularly badly.

Yes, that review is full of modelling on limited evidence and inconclusive conclusions (if there is such a thing). The insinuation that schools could open with social distancing measures suggests the research team have no concept of the everyday life in a school. 

I assume they also have the ebola drug (rendisir?) on hand as well just in case and Hydroxychloroquine if needed. 

As Trump says, if it gets to the final stage, no harm in trying it

If there are no new cases in China and the Far east, then can we assume the virus has not mutated and its over?

Perhaps Europe can return to normal very soon as well

This lockdown has gone on long enough

Lots of discussion in The Times today about European countries planning to ease the lockdown shortly. As the UK may be a couple of weeks behind in the epidemic it should be instructive to see what happens when parts of continental Europe start to ease off the break. Their experiences will IMO be far more useful than output from models produced by Ferguson and his team. Another point is Whitty seems to think penetration of the virus in the UK is no more than 2% currently. Very significant IMO and again suggests that Gupta's study has gone to the back of the queue of even the bin.

Missing the pub, Geoff? And the daily diatribe from your right-wing buddies?

A question for one of a more medical people.

If Boris has only had Oxygen - what does this suggest? 

Is this just an support measure and is it now unlikely he will slip further. If so that's good news :)

Yes! I am going mad and betting bored of wandering around Tesco several times a day for my only human contact!

He should be fine, unlike Labour MP Tony Lloyd who is on a proper ventilator and in a bad way. Starmer could be facing his first by-election

Perhaps you could get some cheap booze from Tesco and invite a few select of your pub mates over and recreate that authentic atmosphere you often described? You could turn your 10-bed house in an anti lockdown private members club.

Schools in Denmark go back on 14th April - that has already been announced. Thus far, Denmark has a good track record in containing the virus, partly because they were very quick to shutdown their borders and stop flights when the first cases were detected.

Will be interesting to see whether the infection rate goes up in Denmark once the schools go back, but a lot depends on whether they maintain their strict border controls.