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Rob K
07 April 2020 21:19:08



UK will have Europe's worst coronavirus death toll, study predicts


Deaths predicted to peak at 3,000 a day. UK to account for 40% of Europe's mortalities.


Grim. Grim. Grim.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


That model seems to be already way out of the graph is accurate, as it has well over 1,000 deaths by yesterday. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Northern Sky
07 April 2020 21:34:53

It's a depressing thought but with a vaccine at least a year away I'm struggling to see how many people are going to avoid getting this damn virus. 


It feels very strange at the moment but at least it also feels relatively safe. Going back to work will be horrible - it'll just feel like a case of waiting to get the virus and rolling the dice. 

Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 21:35:19

While you lot were all lapping up the Downing St line that Johnson was in for ‘routine tests’, I passed on what I had been told that:
1) He was in a much worse state than the official line
2) He had been on a ventilator

We shall see.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


What has been reported is that, because his symptoms had persisted, he was admitted for tests and that he has been given oxygen. 


The BBC has reported that, "Mr Johnson was admitted to St Thomas' Hospital in central London with "persistent symptoms" of Covid-19 on Sunday and was moved to intensive care on Monday evening after his symptoms worsened.  Mr Raab said the prime minister was receiving standard oxygen treatment and breathing without any assistance, such as mechanical ventilation or non-invasive respiratory support."


Where's the alleged misinformation, exactly?  Are you saying that the reports are lies? 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
07 April 2020 21:36:31

While you lot were all lapping up the Downing St line that Johnson was in for ‘routine tests’, I passed on what I had been told that:
1) He was in a much worse state than the official line
2) He had been on a ventilator

We shall see.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Have you heard anything today?


Is he improving?


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 21:48:21


It's a depressing thought but with a vaccine at least a year away I'm struggling to see how many people are going to avoid getting this damn virus. 


It feels very strange at the moment but at least it also feels relatively safe. Going back to work will be horrible - it'll just feel like a case of waiting to get the virus and rolling the dice. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Yes, I agree. The thought of having to be really careful for the next 12, maybe 18 months at least, to try to minimise the risks of catching Covid-19, is not appealing. We're both retired and I can't imagine how those who need to get back to work and have their children at school or college are going to cope.


Maybe we'll get lucky and a treatment will emerge that deals with the lung damage and takes the pressure away from ICUs; maybe there'll be a vaccine that is fast-tracked and effective. Otherwise we're looking at social distancing and masks for 12-18 months and/or continuing to protect the vulnerable.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
07 April 2020 21:50:46


It's a depressing thought but with a vaccine at least a year away I'm struggling to see how many people are going to avoid getting this damn virus. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I don't think that's unavoidable though, it largely depends on the govt's response. New infections could be very few by the end of May if the lockdown lasts until then. The question is what the govt does after this.


 

xioni2
07 April 2020 22:03:15


Fascinating graph (click for larger) from the BBC showing the variation in response to the crisis across Europe



Originally Posted by: RobN 


Fascinating indeed and if you add the current death totals you can see a strong correlation between early lockdown and total number of deaths. Here are some numbers (total number of deaths as of today):


Slovakia: 2
Montenegro: 2
Cyprus: 9
Lithuania: 15
Croatia: 18
Slovenia: 36
Ukraine: 45
Serbia: 61
Greece: 81
Czech: 88

westv
07 April 2020 22:13:11

While you lot were all lapping up the Downing St line that Johnson was in for ‘routine tests’, I passed on what I had been told that:
1) He was in a much worse state than the official line
2) He had been on a ventilator

We shall see.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 


No, we weren't all lapping it up.


At least it will be mild!
JHutch
07 April 2020 22:22:41

Re: the illness from December which has been commented on a lot with some (not all!) people speculating whether it was early covid-19 or a similar illness. The graphs in the following tweet appear to show that it really was just a bad case of flu (am working at the mo though so have not had a chance to fully analyse the graphs and source etc)


 



Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 22:25:38


 


I don't think that's unavoidable though, it largely depends on the govt's response. New infections could be very few by the end of May if the lockdown lasts until then. The question is what the govt does after this.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


This is being discussed on Newsnight on BBC2 tonight and the view is that only mass testing and contact tracing, ideally using an app, can allow any significant relaxation. But that means on-going containment until there's a vaccine.


The bottom line is that SARS-Cov2 will still have the same characteristics in terms of transmission and severity of symptoms and only a vaccine will provide the necessary protection to allow life to return to whatever the new normal looks like.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
07 April 2020 22:42:25
It is being reported on BBC News24, during the review of the papers, that Boris Johnson's temperature is dropping, which is excellent news.

It was also reiterated that he has not been on a ventilator at any stage.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
07 April 2020 22:44:53
The Times are reporting Boris' temperature is now falling after it was persistently high
The Beast from the East
07 April 2020 23:12:48

It seems blacks and asians are affected more and all men who are overweight


It could be that minorities are more likely to be from poorer backgrounds and more likely to have other health issues, rather than a genetic reason


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
CreweCold
08 April 2020 01:19:57


Re: the illness from December which has been commented on a lot with some (not all!) people speculating whether it was early covid-19 or a similar illness. The graphs in the following tweet appear to show that it really was just a bad case of flu (am working at the mo though so have not had a chance to fully analyse the graphs and source etc)


 




Originally Posted by: JHutch 


I could accept it was flu if it laid me in bed for a week but it didn't. The two times I've had flu before completely knocked me for six, out of action for a week, came on suddenly too.


The illness at the back end of December really was just a dry cough and temperature/night chills. I was able to go to work and carry on, despite feeling under the weather. 


I've no doubt flu was going round at the time but I didn't have flu.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level

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