Sorry if someone mentioned this already, but rather worrying

 

Sadly, another blow to the herd immunity theory: 51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea

Testing, containment - that’s going to be the only way to stop the virus. https://t.co/O4WO2p0V63

— Peter Jukes (@peterjukes) April 8, 2020

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Just been out for an hour on the bike. Definitely more cars around than yesterday. This time a week ago, I didn't see another soul on my hour-long circuit.

Hard to make out what is going on today although if you take the last three days, it does look the infection rate might be starting to flatten.

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Can we believe this? There appears to be so much noise surrounding false negatives, false positives and supposed reinfection. Michael??

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No, contrary to belief,  there are quite a lot of animal lovers/owners in China

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The media are pushing it because they are ‘bored’ of this phase, so it’s on to the next one.

Then the agenda will be ‘are cases rising again? Let’s have another lockdown’, repeat to fade....

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Idjots warming up for the cancelled "Easter break"

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Clearly it's variable. We went up to the outskirts of Cambridge this morning for the weekly shopping and on the normally busy M11 from Duxford we saw fewer than a dozen cars on the two legs of the journey, on both carriageways. The A505 remains very quiet apart from a scattering of vans and lorries. On the local lanes again very little traffic; far more cyclists and walkers than motorised vehicles.

Park and Ride at Trumpington almost deserted.

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It would be interesting, going by your model predictions Q, when you think the lockdown would be eased.

I appreciate the answer might not reflect your opinion, more what the prospective stats say 

I would expect that but I was responding to the point about some people killing cats and dogs.

🙂

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Yes, the 90 minute queue was being discussed on our WhatsApp group today. I understand there are issues with social distancing once you are in store too. Fortunately I've not had to go there for several weeks.

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You can travel beyond the 2km zone if necessary. Obviously, in an urban area, you should be able to find a supermarket or pharmacy within the 2km zone. If you are rural or more than 2km from the supermarket, you're free to travel further. 

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Same here generally, although my sister’s 87 YO mum in law is the exception and is doing everything by the book!  There are 18 houses in our cup-de-sac, mostly middle aged with grown up kids, one with young children and one with a couple in their 80’s. Everyone is sticking to the rules.

I rather think like Ulric, we’re not that old and we are observing all the rules but if we get it, we’ve had a good life!  I’d rather it were me than my kids!

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What's your view on the latest Boris update? 

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I've been for a short afternoon walk each day round my local park and it has been fairly quiet with mainly joggers and a few dog walkers dotted about, as well as fellow walkers. People are observing distancing rules as well, though I'm the first one to go on to the grass usually. I expected more at the weekend given the hype around the good weather but thankfully there hasn't been a spike locally 

Further afield in Sheffield there has been a lot of discontent at a poor and ethnically diverse estate of the city known as Page Hall where social distancing has been completely ignored. Police have been 'having a chat' rather than issuing any fines. They say the flouting has been down to a lack of understanding of the rules, though many believe that to be utter bullcrap. Hard to disagree when it is the benefit capital of the city and they perfectly understand how to maximise those to their gain 

Edit: I've just read that South Yorkshire Police have issued 9 fines in Page Hall, so I stand corrected.

 

You didn't ask for mine but I'm wondering if he's more comfortable sitting up and chatting then why is he still taking up a bed in the ICU?

 

My old colleague Con Coughlin tearing into the UK's cosying up to China:

Our enemies will seek to exploit Britain’s vulnerability during this moment of crisis

Some excerpts:

Of far greater concern, though, is the deliberate misinformation being disseminated by countries like China, Russia and Iran about the true impact of the virus on their citizens. The misinformation campaign being undertaken by these countries, designed to cover up their own mishandling of the pandemic, makes it immensely more difficult for British scientists to acquire a comprehensive picture of the origins and development of the coronavirus, thereby undermining the Government’s efforts to navigate a way out of the crisis.

and

As Professor David Harper, a global health specialist, told a recent session of the Commons foreign affairs select committee, “communication is always a big issue” in dealing with pandemics. Therefore the failure of these three countries, as well as others, to give an accurate and transparent account of their own experiences has “obscured analysis in the critical early stages of the pandemic”.

Given the negative impact the hostile behaviour of rogue regimes such as these is having on Britain’s efforts to overcome the pandemic, it is vital that, once this crisis is over, their unwillingness to help us in our hour of need must inform our post-pandemic world view.

and

First and foremost, there must be a clear alignment with those countries that were open about their efforts to tackle the challenge, and which were prepared to share – to the best of their ability – their scientific knowledge of the virus, as well as providing practical support in terms of vital medical equipment.

Their willingness to offer assistance will be in stark contrast to the lies and disinformation that has been forthcoming from Russia, China and Iran.

and

This fiasco shows why it is so important that, in future, the Government must make sure it is dealing with countries it can rely upon to help, rather than those that will cause it yet further trouble.

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That's the most ridiculous timetable ever and will give us huge huge problems in the Autumn and Winter , I guess this guy is emigrating soon , is he ?

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I echo SJV's view. Why is he still in ICU if he is sitting up and chatting?

I'm suspicious of the optimism emanating from Downing St because we were being told he was fine at the end of last week. But he probably isn't dying which is a huge relief.

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A bit cynical to suggest that fining people for unnecessary journeys is simply a revenue raising exercise. 

As for being unelected, what else can be done? You know that the last election was completely indecisive so forming a government is no easy task. I think it's no harm that we have experienced people running the show at the moment rather than new people. In any case, would a new government be doing anything different to what is being done now? I know that you can't stand Varadkar but surely you'd agree that our government has done a better job than the Tories(not a high bar admittedly).

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Could it be that the medics are making 100% sure that he's not released until they're sure he will not have to be re-admitted ?

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Yes could be. And there may not be a bed in another room available (don't suppose for a moment he would be put on a general ward). I would hope he is out of ICU tomorrow or Friday at the latest.

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Rinse and repeat could well happen , so those wishing a rapid return to normality be very careful what you wish for , imagine Xmas and no one being able to get out 

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I hate to bring Brexit into this thread but the last paragraph in particular would rather suggest that the UK ought to align itself with the EU even after exiting rather than going for "Global Britain" etc. What are the chances of that?

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3,000 of todays 5,491 announced cases are in the Midlands

Well with major question marks over potential vaccine effectiveness and second/third waves there is a very real chance we see-saw between strict and lenient periods of 'lockdown' for many months, including over the winter period in order to manage the impact of the virus on our hospitals and economy.