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Darren S
08 April 2020 15:53:56


That is my experience. The younger people are here, the more inclined they seem to be to observe the rules. The elderly don't seem to care and it is them that we are trying to protect!


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


That's my experience here, too - that when at the supermarket, or out for a walk (which my wife now wants to stop doing because of the risk) it's the older people, who you think really shouldn't be out, that are not getting out of the way or walking too close to others.


It's as though they're thinking "well, I've had a good long life. I don't want to be shut away for my final days, if I get it then it doesn't matter". 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gavin D
08 April 2020 15:55:58
5,491 tested positive that's up 1,857 on yesterday

Daily increase is 9.94% up from 7.04% yesterday
Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 15:57:18

5,491 tested positive that's up 1,857 on yesterday

Daily increase is 9.94% up from 7.04% yesterday

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Can you split out NHS staff who have been tested? IMO it's difficult to draw conclusions otherwise. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
08 April 2020 15:58:14
Confirmed deaths has increased by 2 in the UK to 938
Quantum
08 April 2020 15:58:58

JFF model update.


Firstly the cumulative tested people numbers are still out of whack, hopefully that will be resolved tommorow. I'm going with the 12k figure.


Anyway.



5491 new confirmed cases. Model went for (at 12.9k tests) 5444 so excellent model performance today.


Three day periodicity may be back with today being the big jump day.


 


Increasingly confident given the good model performance that we have seen the peak and the model was right about the 5th April being the peak.


Over the next few days I will reincoperate increasing testing numbers but will use a moving avg+ extrapolation rather than the govt target.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2020 16:00:33

Latest version of cumulative death rate graph I've tended to use


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=CHN+ITA+KOR+SWE+GBR+USA+CAN+ESP+DEU


Interpreting these figures is tough - are these figures despite of or because of lockdowns? Are the countries reporting the same things? If this was experimental data I'd being saying "more data and better rigour required before any conclusions can be drawn"


Broadly: UK, Italy and Sweden still on similar paths. Germany's graph looks "good" as it's both smooth and better than the UK's suggesting consistent reporting. Canada difficult to call, the graph wobbles so much it suggests the figures are unreliable.


--
Paul.
Bertwhistle
08 April 2020 16:00:42


 


I live in a tiny hamlet consisting of eight households on a dead-end lane off another lane. Most of the residents are elderly. At the end of the lane, there's a house with attached Airbnb lets and livery business. There is a steady stream of traffic to and from this property - people who own horses plus the owner's various male 'friends' who are mostly middle aged and already married. They appear to be exempt from the lockdown regulations and my patience is wearing thin with them.


Other households include:



  1. Our neighbour who caught CV19 in Italy and has now recovered. Despite her assumed immunity, she continues to observe the lockdown and has my respect for it

  2. Very elderly couple with one in renal failure and his wife having had a quadruple heart bypass in December. Both shielded and observing lockdown

  3. Young couple in their 30s next house down the lane. Expecting baby in a couple of weeks. Strictly observing lockdown

  4. Elderly widow in big house not observing lockdown because 'it is boring'

  5. Elderly wealthy couple having new kitchen fitted by fitter who has worked there every day for the past two weeks regardless. Not observing lockdown

  6. Elderly couple who think it's a bit of a joke and continue to go out shopping virtually every day

  7. Beth and I strictly observing the lockdown


That is my experience. The younger people are here, the more inclined they seem to be to observe the rules. The elderly don't seem to care and it is them that we are trying to protect!


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


My experience entirely! Except those, like my father, who have been seriously groomed about all this and are doing their bit (he's making his own milk out of oats!)


Had to reprimand a more senior person in chemist queue. Not taken well at all- and when we couldn't get a delivery shop and my children needed some fresh vegetables- more senior members of community carrying on regardless.


Wonder if they don't have the regular access/ contact with E media to heighten their awareness.


There is also a family nearby still having family gatherings. Trays of food/treats arriving  and taxis parked outside.


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:01:43


 


To be frank at this stage, I would support the military patrolling the streets.


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Very bad idea. Our population is not collectively compliant like other cultures. Both the US and UK have a tradition of libertarianism and distrust of state power. Unlike France, Spain, Italy, Germany we have never had the experience of martial law and army checkpoints


Many minority groups already have a fractured relationship with the police. Putting thousands of young fully armed grunts from poorly educated  backgrounds on the streets of London and Birmingham is playing with fire


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
08 April 2020 16:01:55
5,491 Positive New Cases
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
SJV
08 April 2020 16:02:03


 


Pubs could reopen May 18th according to this article in the Fail. The timetable has been put together by Professor Karol Sikora who is a very respected figure in the UK and internationally I believe:


April 27th - Small businesses open


May 4th - lockdown removed


May 18th - all offices, bars and restaurants reopen


June 1st - international travel resumes


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8200311/Former-executive-reveals-four-step-exit-strategy-ease-UK-lockdown.html


My view - best of luck to him with that. I can't see it unless infections drop massively.


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I can't imagine a relaxation of the lockdown at the end of April going by current figures. We've only just reached (and exceeded) Italy numbers in terms of daily deaths and going by their curve the peak, and flattening of, is slow and arduous.

Gavin D
08 April 2020 16:02:16
Rishi Sunak is holding the daily press conference from Downing Street
Gavin D
08 April 2020 16:02:51
19,438 patients in hospital in the UK with covid-19 symptoms 
Gavin D
08 April 2020 16:03:30

Boris remains in hospital his condition is improving he's sitting up in bed and engaging positively with the medics.

David M Porter
08 April 2020 16:05:50


 


I merely say what every right-minded individual is thinking


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Talk for yourself!


 



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:06:01


 


That's my experience here, too - that when at the supermarket, or out for a walk (which my wife now wants to stop doing because of the risk) it's the older people, who you think really shouldn't be out, that are not getting out of the way or walking too close to others.


It's as though they're thinking "well, I've had a good long life. I don't want to be shut away for my final days, if I get it then it doesn't matter"


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Can you blame them? I have no intention of spending my final years sitting in a nappy of my own p-ss in a care home that charges £1000 a week


 


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:07:24


Boris remains in hospital his condition is improving he's sitting up in bed and engaging positively with the medics.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The rumours were true. 


Hopefully he will take control from Rabbers soon


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:08:54


 


If there is to be a long period of lockdown I agree a universal income should be considered and I would be inclined to restrict it to all basic rate taxpayers.There is no easy way out of this lockdown and this virus is hear to stay,until a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved.The one thing more than anything that will lift the lockdown is economic pressure which will increase substantially from next month onwards as most people would have been paid as normal at the end of March so ok for April.Its when the sudden drop in income happens at the end of this month not too mention how long can all the `non essential` businesses survive with no revenue! Not many will last beyond 2 months.


Your points above apply to many many businesses in hospitality,lesuire and tourism across the rest of the uk as well.


An economic meltdown=mass unemployment and mass defaults=another financial crisis= no more NHS and other public services!


Unless the govt are going to indroduce a universal income and basically lay much of the economy to waste by imposing a lockdown lasting months they are going to have to gradually ease restrictions by end of May at the latest.


The public at the moment are onboard in a big way but that could evaporate very quickly which could then lead to civil unrest. 


The govt cannot just look at this from a medical view point and make the remedy worse than the disease.


 


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin D
08 April 2020 16:13:19

Hospital admissions and ICU patients might be starting to flatten out


Heavy Weather 2013
08 April 2020 16:13:30

The women giving the briefing seems to put a positive spin on admissions and Critical care, yet both have risen.

Hospital admissions up 5% across the UK.

She is an awful presenter IMHO


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:13:38


 


At the end of the lane, there's a house with attached Airbnb lets and livery business. There is a steady stream of traffic to and from this property - people who own horses plus the owner's various male 'friends' who are mostly middle aged and already married. They appear to be exempt from the lockdown regulations and my patience is wearing thin with them.


Beth and I strictly observing the lockdown


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Hey Mr Curtain-twitcher, can you introduce me to this woman? I can pay her well


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
08 April 2020 16:18:45


The women giving the briefing seems to put a positive spin on admissions and Critical care, yet both have risen.

Hospital admissions up 5% across the UK.

She is an awful presenter IMHO


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


She seemed to be analysing the data correctly, commenting on the trend and the lag effects?


Gavin D
08 April 2020 16:20:06

Global deaths comparison


EVGB8EUXgAIxZT7.thumb.jpg.6231cb2117f2d10ef347df68367189a3.jpg


China


 🤥🤥

The Beast from the East
08 April 2020 16:20:58

If Boris is sitting up in bed and talking, then he needs to get out of ICU and give the bed to someone who needs it


I wonder if he was given Hydroxychloroquine. If so, Trump will claim the credit!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ulric
08 April 2020 16:21:40


If Boris is sitting up in bed and talking, then he needs to get out of ICU and give the bed to someone who needs it


I wonder if he was given Hydroxychloroquine. If so, Trump will claim the credit!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And the profit.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
David M Porter
08 April 2020 16:21:40


Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Originally Posted by: John p 


I have a 56-year-old cousin who has spent the last week in hospital after testing positive for it. I am very pleased to say however that she now appears to be over the worst of it and has been told by her doctors that she may be able to be discharged from hospital at the end of this week, although she will almost certainly have to self-isolate for a couple of weeks after that.



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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