Antibody testing apparently underway already in Germany. I'm not sure what to make of this article in the Tele.
1) Surely 15% is miles away from the 60% to 70% needed for herd immunity
2) Even if the 15% is correct it can not be extrapolated to the rest of Germany because Gangelt had a higher rate of infection
3) How does a combination of 1 and 2 lead to the belief the lockdown can now be eased?
4) Immunity will be in the range of 12 to 18 months - it true people who get it now will still need to be vaccinated since a vaccine isn't likely to be widely available for another 12 months or so
Perhaps my understanding is lacking or some elements of the article have got lost in translation.
I've provided the key bits below:
Many people may already have immunity to coronavirus, German study finds
Lots of people may have been infected without knowing it and that means the lockdown could soon be lifted, scientists in Germany say
Many more people may have been infected with the coronavirus and acquired immunity than previously thought, according to a groundbreaking study in Germany.
Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.
Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.
The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.
“This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible,” Prof Hendrik Streeck, the virologist leading the study told a press conference.
....
Initial results based on around half the tests found 2 per cent of inhabitants are currently infected and 14 per cent had antibodies to the virus. Allowing for overlap that suggests 15 per cent of people in the town now have immunity — compared to the previous estimate of 5 per cent.
....
"The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 per cent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another of the study's leaders, said.
“With 60 to 70 per cent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk.”
The figures cannot be extrapolated to the rest of Germany because Gangelt had a higher rate of infection. But the study's authors said they were grounds for cautious optimism. An immunity rate of 15 per cent is already enough to slow the spread of the virus significantly, they said in a joint statement.
...
It is unclear how long any immunity to the virus conferred by a previous infection will last, although experience with similar viruses suggests it will be in the range of a year to 18 months.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/