Happy Easter - with more than the usual force, hoping that this greeting is genuinely appropriate for you

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5am run report: the same two dog walkers are out as usual. Grrrrr

Jogger appeared just before 6am. Otherwise okay.

 

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It comes as 917 hospital deaths were recorded in the 24 hours up to 17:00 BST on Friday - the second day in a row that the figure has been over 900.

The death toll released on Saturday was slightly down on the previous day's 980 deaths.

However, spikes or dips may in part reflect bottlenecks in the reporting system, rather than real changes in the trend and these figures do not include those who have died in care homes or the community.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52258980

My view
We need to know the true picture of what is happening in care homes. In France deaths in care homes are included in the daily count and often seem to be around 40% of the total.

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My view
We need to know the true picture of what is happening in care homes. In France deaths in care homes are included in the daily count and often seem to be around 40% of the total.

Hi Brian

I believe if the true figures were added to the total we might need to sit down with a stiff drink. I just can’t see the government doing this as it would be just too embarrassing for them. 

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With apologies for starting off with a bit of doom and gloom: This Week reports that three food experts have written to the Government saying that plans should be in place for food rationing. More details at http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/51601

• Tim Lang, Professor of food policy at City University (main concern quoted, that UK only produces 53% of its own food)


•  Erik Millstone, Professor at University of Surrey (Stock held by UK food retailers down from 10 days worth 30 years ago to 36 hours worth now)


• Terry Marsden, Professor at Cardiff University (Supplies from corona-hit countries may dry up)

In connection with the last point , Prof Marsden mentions fresh produce from Spain and Italy but I've seen other reports relating to rice,  wheat and edible oils  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-food-security/food-security-concerns-stoked-as-exporters-curb-sales-importers-buy-more-idUSKBN21D0YV The embargo on rice from Vietnam is in place but the rest appears to be either immediate logistical problems, real enough but hopefully temporary,  or just speculation.

WW2 weekly ration quoted in This Week was 113g bacon, 227g minced beef etc, 57 g butter, 57 g cheese, 113g margarine, 113 g lard, 227 g sugar, 57 g tea, 3 pints milk, one egg. It varied a bit from time to time and also included petrol and soap. 113g = 4oz, you can do the others pro rata.

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For those who missed it in the last thread here's the 7 day rolling average showing deaths per million. (I didn't include France or Belgium because they are reporting deaths in the community rather than just hospitals)  

PS: The 4 day Easter period may have an impact on the UK's 7 day rolling average

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=DEU+ITA+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA

 

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Denmark is set to re-open schools for 11 year olds and under from next Wednesday, all part of what appears to be a well planned strategy designed to gradually "re-open" the country.

Upto 11th April Denmark had around 6000 confirmed cases and 260 corona virus related deaths.

From the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52226763 

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I think this graph is very informative. The slope of the line gives you some idea of the rate of spread amongst the population as a whole and is better than the raw death rate/case IMO.

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It will be interesting to see how this works out in the medium term and if or how any form of social distancing can be implemented. I have my reservations. 

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5am dog walk report.  That bloody runner was out again!  I'll have to start going earlier .....

 

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Yesterday, just for amusement, I left aligned the data very crudely.

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The press coverage of Boris is sickening.
They're presenting it as if he's risen from the dead at easter.

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The figures are nonsensical though, I don't know how they can present them with a straight face, let alone attempt to draw any conclusion
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87575

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Denmark will begin a gradual unlocking process from this Wednesday as schools and nurseries reopen to children aged 11 and younger. Austria are reopening some shops this Tuesday the rest including restaurants and hotels will reopen in May.

 Norway, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Spain are the other countries that are lifting some restrictions within the next 2-weeks

For crying out loud they have as much right to be out as you! 

If everyone keeps a 2 metre distance then you’re fine. 

Personally I think joggers should be banned during the current crisis. Self righteous heavy breathers. 😃 I’m convinced you’re more likely to encounter a “pool” of corona when you’re downwind from someone jogging. Very unscientific I know and I don’t pretend to know what I’m talking about. 

Btw. If someone comes too close, do what I did on Friday. Tell them off. :D 

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Interesting article highlighting how the government are trying to shift the blame onto the public for going out and about for exercise exactly as they have been advised to do.

https://www.redpepper.org.uk/the-politics-of-covid-19-busy-parks-and-public-blame/ 

“We should be thankful that cities like London are blessed with green space. Instead, Brockwell Park was closed on Sunday, after Lambeth Council declared it ‘unacceptable’ that just 3,000 people had passed through the day before. In a 50.8 hectare space, that’s roughly 169 square metres per person. We should keep these numbers in mind as the narrative of public blame starts to embed.”

We’ve seen the same thing in the papers with telephoto pictures of parks, beaches etc using the perspective-compressing powers of a long lens to try to give the impression that the public are breaking distancing guidelines. It’s all part of the move to shift the blame from the dithering government onto the general population who are for the most part trying their best to comply.

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See post #7 above 

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Thanks for posting that Rob, I think the article raises some interesting points. This situation must be especially difficult in London, especially if you don’t have any outside space. Overall I think this lockdown is being adhered to very well. 

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Breaking

Parliament is to return virtually on 21 April to debate corona virus measures

BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52260757

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I know the UK has a population more than ten times that of Denmark but even so those stats are low. How has Denmark managed to manage the virus to those levels?

I read somewhere the government had been surprised how well the lockdown has been adhered to.

I also feel the public has been well behaved. In a population of 66 million you will always get some idiots and if the press just takes photos of them it will massively alter the publics perception of compliance.

You cannot control every single person after all in normal times tens of thousands of people break the law on a daily basis, harrassment, drugs, speeding, under age drinking etc etc .

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/dont-stand-so-close-to-me-hundreds-flock-to-londons-green-lungs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Victoria Park yesterday -  London is going to struggle based on population density if nothing else. 

The parks up here aren’t too bad - I’ve been avoiding the paths as much as possible. 

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They began their lockdown earlier

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