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Joe Bloggs
12 April 2020 09:08:23

https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20


 


A very interesting read this thread. The post about the Stereophonics gig in Cardiff is especially haunting. Read the whole thread. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Ulric
12 April 2020 09:12:59

Interesting article highlighting how the government are trying to shift the blame onto the public for going out and about for exercise exactly as they have been advised to do.

https://www.redpepper.org.uk/the-politics-of-covid-19-busy-parks-and-public-blame/




Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, Libertarianism is all about individual responsibility for the poor. This government will not take responsibility for anything.


Between the evil Chinese communists and stupid lazy poor people, we have brought this all on ourselves.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
David M Porter
12 April 2020 09:14:53

Something I have been wondering for a while is how big a factor were the Chinese New Year celebrations back in late January in the worldwide spread of the disease.


By this time, the Chinese government knew full well that there was a major health crisis developing in their country and it was around time that Wuhan was put into lockdown. I imagine though that many people would very likely have already left the country to travel to many other locations in the world before the Wuhan lockdown came into force.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ulric
12 April 2020 09:22:37


I know the UK has a population more than ten times that of Denmark but even so those stats are low. How has Denmark managed to manage the virus to those levels?


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I have a friend who lives on the outskirts of Copenhagen and so I have had a real-time commentary on what is happening there. One of the first things they did was to mark one way routes on all footpaths in parks etc. and have wardens there ticketing people for breaking social distancing rules. Danes in general have abided by the lock down rules very strictly.


Their government has taken real practical measures to control transmission and crucially, they have taken responsibility for enforcement. Compare that with our government who have said lots of meaningless words, failed to provide PPE to the health service and encouraged the press to call out the public for being stupid and inconsiderate.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
JHutch
12 April 2020 09:26:48


Something I have been wondering for a while is how big a factor were the Chinese New Year celebrations back in late January in the worldwide spread of the disease.


By this time, the Chinese government knew full well that there was a major health crisis developing in their country and it was around time that Wuhan was put into lockdown. I imagine though that many people would very likely have already left the country to travel to many other locations in the world before the Wuhan lockdown came into force.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes, that is mentioned in this article that i linked to about a week ago - there was the lockdown in Wuhan but some people had already left by that time (no idea what proportion of the 25,000 mentioned in the article who had come from China were from Wuhan though)


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/01/i-returned-thailand-january-with-fever-103-i-wasnt-tested-coronavirus/

JHutch
12 April 2020 09:39:25


https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20


 


A very interesting read this thread. The post about the Stereophonics gig in Cardiff is especially haunting. Read the whole thread. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Careful, someone will accuse you of bickering... Yes, an interesting read, had forgotten about all the cancelling of St Patricks Day festivities. Have noticed in the official number of cases that Cardiff has been soaring in recent days/weeks. I don't know if the testing criteria is different between NHS England and NHS Wales but Cardiff's proportion of official cases per head of population is higher than all but 3 London boroughs.


On that note, i see that Cumbria has continued to have a lot of positive cases, only 5 London boroughs ahead of it. I don't know if any reason has been given or specific event but it does seem a bit of an outlier. One thing i have noticed is that when reading cases from abroad they have sometimes linked outbreaks to specific events. Other than a link to a choir* that i read at some point i don't know if there have been links to individual events at all in this country.


*Have read a few stories where a choir meeting has caused an outbreak. I suppose that people come into close contact and singing in a choir involves taking deep breaths in close proximity to other people who are sending lots of germs out and there is a lot of recycling of air. I suppose such a situation occurs at a packed gig too.

JHutch
12 April 2020 09:44:10

We genuinely do live in unprecedented times and dealing with the economic fallout is very difficult for the government, setting up new systems does take time etc. However, the revelations from Sharma today are worrying.


 



Joe Bloggs
12 April 2020 09:45:24


 


Careful, someone will accuse you of bickering... Yes, an interesting read, had forgotten about all the cancelling of St Patricks Day festivities. Have noticed in the official number of cases that Cardiff has been soaring in recent days/weeks. I don't know if the testing criteria is different between NHS England and NHS Wales but Cardiff's proportion of official cases per head of population is higher than all but 3 London boroughs.


On that note, i see that Cumbria has continued to have a lot of positive cases, only 5 London boroughs ahead of it. I don't know if any reason has been given or specific event but it does seem a bit of an outlier. One thing i have noticed is that when reading cases from abroad they have sometimes linked outbreaks to specific events. Other than a link to a choir* that i read at some point i don't know if there have been links to individual events at all in this country.


*Have read a few stories where a choir meeting has caused an outbreak. I suppose that people come into close contact and singing in a choir involves taking deep breaths in close proximity to other people who are sending lots of germs out and there is a lot of recycling of air. I suppose such a situation occurs at a packed gig too.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


I absolutely think we are to become the worst affected country in Europe, because of the decisions made by the UK Government in the early days of the crisis. It really is a scandal and we are very much in the process of paying the price. 


I’d love for someone to challenge the statistics presented in that Twitter thread. Just look at the difference between us and the ROI. 


And yes, before someone else says it, hindsight is of course a wonderful thing. I get that. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

llamedos
12 April 2020 09:49:42


 


Careful, someone will accuse you of bickering... Yes, an interesting read, had forgotten about all the cancelling of St Patricks Day festivities. Have noticed in the official number of cases that Cardiff has been soaring in recent days/weeks. I don't know if the testing criteria is different between NHS England and NHS Wales but Cardiff's proportion of official cases per head of population is higher than all but 3 London boroughs.


On that note, i see that Cumbria has continued to have a lot of positive cases, only 5 London boroughs ahead of it. I don't know if any reason has been given or specific event but it does seem a bit of an outlier. One thing i have noticed is that when reading cases from abroad they have sometimes linked outbreaks to specific events. Other than a link to a choir* that i read at some point i don't know if there have been links to individual events at all in this country.


*Have read a few stories where a choir meeting has caused an outbreak. I suppose that people come into close contact and singing in a choir involves taking deep breaths in close proximity to other people who are sending lots of germs out and there is a lot of recycling of air. I suppose such a situation occurs at a packed gig too.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 

I think there was an argument offered somewhere that age demographic was a factor. I've just looked at 2019 data and the 65+years band represented 24% compared to the England average of 18.2%


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
JHutch
12 April 2020 09:54:10


I think there was an argument offered somewhere that age demographic was a factor. I've just looked at 2019 data and the 65+years band represented 24% compared to the England average of 18.2%


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Its possible that is a factor although other areas of the country are higher still (i think i read North Norfolk is the highest at 32%), might be a combination of factors rather than one big one.

Retron
12 April 2020 09:59:50
The Beeb raises an interesting quirk with the figures - minorities are suffering worst from this.

I'd be interested to see whether the stats apply in my borough, too, which is 97% white.... but as there's no hospital with A&E in my borough (despite the popualtion being around 150,000) I guess there's no way of knowing!

"Only 14% of people in England and Wales are from ethnic minority backgrounds, according to the 2011 census.

However, the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre found that 34% of more than 3,000 critically ill coronavirus patients identified as black, Asian or minority ethnic."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52255863 
Leysdown, north Kent
Maunder Minimum
12 April 2020 10:02:15


 


I have a friend who lives on the outskirts of Copenhagen and so I have had a real-time commentary on what is happening there. One of the first things they did was to mark one way routes on all footpaths in parks etc. and have wardens there ticketing people for breaking social distancing rules. Danes in general have abided by the lock down rules very strictly.


Their government has taken real practical measures to control transmission and crucially, they have taken responsibility for enforcement. Compare that with our government who have said lots of meaningless words, failed to provide PPE to the health service and encouraged the press to call out the public for being stupid and inconsiderate.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


The first thing the Danish Government did was to close their borders.


This is the real scandal - a complete dereliction of duty by HMG not to have restricted flights from affected regions and not to have introduced port screening and quarantine for arrivals in February.


 


New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 April 2020 10:03:14


5am run report: the same two dog walkers are out as usual. Grrrrr


Jogger appeared just before 6am. Otherwise okay.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Hubby runs at that time and he hasn’t seen a soul for days. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
llamedos
12 April 2020 10:08:09


Hubby runs at that time and he hasn’t seen a sole for days. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 

I think you should buy him a new pair of trainers, poor old sod! 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Maunder Minimum
12 April 2020 10:08:58


I think you should buy him a new pair of trainers, poor old sod! 


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Perhaps he runs like Zola Budd.


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
12 April 2020 10:09:09


 


The first thing the Danish Government did was to close their borders.


This is the real scandal - a complete dereliction of duty by HMG not to have restricted flights from affected regions and not to have introduced port screening and quarantine for arrivals in February.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And their PM is hot


I'm pleased you able to put aside your partisan bias and admit that the Govt has totally messed this up with borders and delayed lockdown


But most of the media still very much in cahoots with the Tories. Boris being treated like Jesus, rising from the Dead even though it sounds like he wasn't at deaths door after all


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
12 April 2020 10:14:23

The Beeb raises an interesting quirk with the figures - minorities are suffering worst from this.

I'd be interested to see whether the stats apply in my borough, too, which is 97% white.... but as there's no hospital with A&E in my borough (despite the popualtion being around 150,000) I guess there's no way of knowing!

"Only 14% of people in England and Wales are from ethnic minority backgrounds, according to the 2011 census.

However, the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre found that 34% of more than 3,000 critically ill coronavirus patients identified as black, Asian or minority ethnic."


Originally Posted by: Retron 

">


Same in America


I think its mostly due to poverty related issues - higher obesity, type 2 diabetes, overcrowded housing, smoking etc


In China and the Far east, even the poor are generally slimmer and have a better diet


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
12 April 2020 10:14:46


 


And their PM is hot


I'm pleased you able to put aside your partisan bias and admit that the Govt has totally messed this up with borders and delayed lockdown


But most of the media still very much in cahoots with the Tories. Boris being treated like Jesus, rising from the Dead even though it sounds like he wasn't at deaths door after all


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Only so far Beast - could you have imagined a Corbyn government going for an early border lockdown?


The scientific advice to the government was breathtakingly complacent about the whole matter back then - "there is no evidence that port screening works" - complete cock and bull - they only had to look at the example of Taiwan to see that containment was only possible if borders were tightly monitored and people had their half-term trips to the Italian Alps or Spanish Costas cancelled.


New world order coming.
Ulric
12 April 2020 10:17:38


We genuinely do live in unprecedented times and dealing with the economic fallout is very difficult for the government, setting up new systems does take time etc. However, the revelations from Sharma today are worrying.

Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Yeah, when I fall on hard times, the first think I think of is taking on huge repayment commitments.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
The Beast from the East
12 April 2020 10:21:39


 


Only so far Beast - could you have imagined a Corbyn government going for an early border lockdown?


The scientific advice to the government was breathtakingly complacent about the whole matter back then - "there is no evidence that port screening works" - complete cock and bull - they only had to look at the example of Taiwan to see that containment was only possible if borders were tightly monitored and people had their half-term trips to the Italian Alps or Spanish Costas cancelled.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Some of it was, but others were saying what you were arguing for


The Tories will as usual blame anyone but themselves for this mess


The media would have destroyed Corbyn no matter what he did


Imagine if he had joked about shaking hands with Corona patients and "Operation Last Gasp"? The media would have said he deserved to catch it and die


But Boris is treated like Jesus. Its sickening


He has about 8 or 9 children already, and others he paid to get aborted, yet this upcoming entry is being treated like the Virgin birth


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
speckledjim
12 April 2020 10:21:40
Iceland has tested 10% of its population and 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/ 
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Joe Bloggs
12 April 2020 10:24:09

Iceland has tested 10% of its population and 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

">https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/


That’s fascinating. More and more evidence that many people who are carrying, or who have had the virus, wouldn’t even have known about it. 


It’ll be positive when we have some widespread, reliable, antibody tests. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Beast from the East
12 April 2020 10:27:19


 


That’s fascinating. More and more evidence that many people who are carrying, or who have had the virus, wouldn’t even have known about it. 


It’ll be positive when we have some widespread, reliable, antibody tests. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


What we don't yet know is whether the virus can activate at a later date, in the way that a herpes virus like Chickenpox can


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 April 2020 10:33:59


Something I have been wondering for a while is how big a factor were the Chinese New Year celebrations back in late January in the worldwide spread of the disease.


By this time, the Chinese government knew full well that there was a major health crisis developing in their country and it was around time that Wuhan was put into lockdown. I imagine though that many people would very likely have already left the country to travel to many other locations in the world before the Wuhan lockdown came into force.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

That was something I pointed out in response to one of your posts a few threads back.  Chinese New Year is a very big celebration in Chinese communities all over the world and goes on for days.  As you say, there will have been many who travelled before then, either into or out of China, to be with family for their festivities. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Rob K
12 April 2020 10:38:27

Iceland has tested 10% of its population and 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

">https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/


But only something like half of one percent of people testing positive. So the virus isn’t that widespread at all. I assume Iceland has generally lower infection rates than most of Europe due to the sparse population, but even so it suggests we are nowhere near having enough “silent” cases for herd immunity to be a prospect any time soon. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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