I ended  buying off eBay. ....... I'm not holding by breath !

717 new deaths in the UK down slightly from the 737 announced yesterday. Our peak remains at 980.

Overdue JFF model update (and why I've been totally screwed with incomptent data handeling).

Okay so it turns out the model isn't the problem after all, its the ridiculous way PHE has been putting out its statistics (and this is even before you get into all the arithmetic errors on cumulative data). Anyway essentially this is what has happened.

Before 27th March: Only 'most critical care workers' and patients were tested. This is described as 'pillar 1' in the daily brifings.

After 27th March: Testing capacity exists for both Pillar 1 and pillar 2 which includes other key workers.

So this might sound fairly straight forward. Up until the 27th march testing was saturated and I needed to weight by number tested. Whereas after it wasn't saturated so I could drop the number weighting and simply look at pillar 1. That would keep everything nice and consistent.

But oh no, it can't be that simple.

Because After 27th March BUT before 10th April: PHE was reporting Total i.e what you would intutiviely think as Pillar 1 + Pillar 2 as PILLAR 1 ONLY. I mean FFS. Notice how the model screwed up around the 10th April. This is why. Because either everything after 27th march but before 10th april was an underestimate (since it was not including Pillar 2 data) or everything after 10th April was an overestimate because it was including pillar 2 data.

So what happens when you try to fix this?

Well it looks a bit better.

Its not quite there though because I need to think about the saturation issues.

If testing is saturated then I weight by testing, if it isn't saturated then I don't weight. So this problem still needs sorting out.

I'll deal with this and hopefully have things back on track tommorow ish.

eh?

The conglomerate trusts (the bottom three) have zero deaths but their constituent trusts (the first six) have deaths?

Or if there will be an effective vaccine at all or at best its like the flu vaccine in that it may help but not provide complete immunity.There needs to be serious plans drawn up on how society can function effectively whilst living with the threat from this and other viruses.

One thing is certain,staying like this is NOT an option.

​

UK coronavirus death toll increases by 697 but drops for second day in a row

Quote

 

Coronavirus deaths in the UK are usually lower at the weekend and the latest toll was announced as Nicola Sturgeon said there are "optimistic signs" the Covid-19 lockdown is working and Boris Johnson recovered at Chequers

 

Britain's coronavirus death toll has climbed to 11,344 after 697 more patients died - but it is a drop for the second day in a row. The latest figure was announced on the Easter bank holiday Monday as Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said there are "optimistic signs" the lockdown - which is entering its fourth week - is working but restrictions will continue. However, the day-on-day decreases should be met with caution because many weekend deaths aren't reported until later and figures from Saturdays and Sundays are often lower as a result.

The total previously stood at 10,647 on Sunday afternoon after a rise of 710, which was down from a daily increase of 917 on Saturday. The NHS reported 667 new deaths in hospitals in England on Monday, while Wales recorded 15, Scotland nine and Northern Ireland six.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-coronavirus-daily-deaths-uk-21858712

​

​

Nicola Sturgeon lets slip UK lockdown will be extended on Thursday

Quote

 

Nicola Sturgeon revealed there will be no lockdown let-up next week - before Downing Street had the chance to make an official announcement. The Scottish Minister got in before Prime Minister Boris Johnson or his deputy Dominic Raab had the chance to brief Britain themselves. The UK has entered a fourth week of lockdown as the battle against coronavirus intensifies.

Parts of Europe have seen restrictions relaxed after a drop off in cases as hopes were rising that a similar decision could be made here. But it now seems certain that Britain will not follow suit after the death toll surpassed 11,000.

An announcement on the next step was expected to be made by Number 10 in the coming days. But Sturgeon got there first as she all-but confirmed there will be no positive lockdown news coming in the week ahead. She said: "There is of course due to be a review of these restrictions this week. "I want to today be very clear so that nobody is under any illusion.  "That review is not likely to result in these restrictions being lifted in the very near future. "There are early optimistic signs that the steps we are taking are working but until we know more and have solid evidence we must stick with it."

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nicola-sturgeon-lets-slip-uk-21859364

​

I'd say schools will be last. Outside of say mega call-centres, they're probably the biggest regular daily gathering of humans in most towns, and thus the most efficient transmission nexus

Plus kids are an asymptomatic plague of locusts - who looks after them in school once half the teachers are off ill?

I can't speak for mainstream schools but I know for a fact that in more than one SEN school staff are in discussions with the unions about not returning to work until better safety measures are put in place.

As the death toll rises and more and more families become personally affected I can only see these concerns rising.

Yes. There was a paper the other day on transmission at unis. Horrendous. The principles were the same as schools.

It will be fascinating to see what happens in Denmark when they reopen kindergarten and primary schools on Wednesday. Governments of other nations will be watching with much interest.

The highest daily death toll in England's hospitals is currently 737 on April 8th

•  April 10th has been revised up to 516 from 423


• April 11th has been revised up to 443 from 121

Other dates will be revised as more deaths are confirmed

That's one of putting it. Another is that she likes to be seen to "be in the know". Given her "optimistic signs" we can also assume hospital admissions are down again today. 

Agree with others in that schools will be one of the last places to open and it wouldn`t surprise me if they stay shut until Septemeber now.

I think some non essential businesses will be allowed to re-open in the retail and lesuire arena as there are so many that will fold soon,but not restaurants,pubs,hotels etc. I also think there will be a concerted plan  to get the premier league and EFL season finished behind closed doors during June/July and it will be interesting to see how the german Bunduslige goes in May and give some insight on how it will be logistically feasible to do the same here with the prem and EFL.

I could see a relaxation that includes public golf, and maybe tennis as well if guidelines are observed. Will get a number out to exercise which is important also.

This is why we need an effective vaccine against this disease, or failing that an alternative treatment, as soon as is humanly possible, in my opinion.

Let's all hope and pray that Professor Sarah Gilbert and her team at Oxford University who are currently working on a vaccine are on the money. According to an article I read online the other day, they reckon there is a chance, if human trials go well and they can get adequate funding, they are hoping to possibly have their vaccine ready by September. It will be a big ask to have something ready for then for sure, but no effort should be spared in terms of helping them out.

I'm ever the optimist but I think we have to accept there are no short cuts.   

Fortuitously we live in a time when advances in healthcare and public hygiene have provided protection against a huge range of nasty diseases that used to be endemic.

Go back just three or four generations and society still had to live with polio and a vast array of other nasty viruses such as measles, rubella, diptheria. Go back further and there was small pox and others.

Society will adapt as far as necessary because it will have to adapt; there isn't another option.  The success or otherwise in finding a vaccine will determine if the adaptations are temporary or permanent. Maybe it will have to be an annual vaccination; maybe for vulnerable groups even every six months. Millions already have an annual flu jab and tens of millions more visit their GP at least once a year, so logistically it's achievable.

I agree. I guess the most optimistic prediction might be that the most vulnerable could get a vaccination before the end of the year, but that requires everything to go spectacularly well.