Meanwhile, the shortcomings of our over centralised, over bureaucratic healthcare delivery system laid bare:

"The UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance broke ranks last night to criticise Public Health England’s results when it comes to increasing testing capacity. Speaking to ITV news last night, Sir Patrick said:

“It’s not scaled as fast as it needs to scale… It clearly hasn’t been at the scale that has enabled all the healthcare working testing that’s an important part of this.”

Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.

As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.

Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave

It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.

Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.

At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.

As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

So they are doing it via statistical analysis - would explain why there is a two week delay before figures can be provided.

Meanwhile, the shortcomings of our over centralised, over bureaucratic healthcare delivery system laid bare:

"The UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance broke ranks last night to criticise Public Health England’s results when it comes to increasing testing capacity. Speaking to ITV news last night, Sir Patrick said:

“It’s not scaled as fast as it needs to scale… It clearly hasn’t been at the scale that has enabled all the healthcare working testing that’s an important part of this.”

Over the weekend leaked emails obtained by Sky News revealed that Public Health England described their approach as a “command and control” testing strategy, centralising testing in government “megalabs” and rejecting private sector offers of help – many of whom are saying publicly they have under-utilised capacity. This has clearly been utterly insufficient.

As soon as the United States allowed private labs, charities, and universities to conduct tests they were able to expand their testing capacity at pace, whereas the UK’s centralised, nationalised approach appears to have held the country back. Serious questions will be asked of how fit Public Health England is for purpose when this is over…"

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

This is worrying. Indications that a second wave hits very quickly after lockdown measures are eased. Suggests we may have to keep the economy closed until either an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available. The alternative could be to accept (in the UK) 500,000 more deaths.

Hokkaido re-declares state of emergency after second wave

It looks like Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido is starting to experience exactly what many epidemiologists had predicted; after the successful suppression of an initial outbreak, the relaxing of restrictions has led to a second wave.

Hokkaido was the first place in Japan to be hit badly by the virus. In mid-February the governor declared a state of emergency, schools were closed and people were urged to stay at home. The shutdown hit in the middle of the ski-season, the worst possible time. I was there myself at the beginning of March and the ski resorts were completely deserted. But it worked, and by the middle of March the infection rate had fallen to a handful of infections a day.

At the end of March schools re-opened and life in Hokkaido began to return to some sort of normality. But now just two weeks later a new state of emergency has been declared. By the end of last week new infections had climbed to between 15 and 20 a day which is higher than during the first wave in February. Schools have again been closed and people asked to stay at home.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52275989

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It's still early days but I wonder if we are on a course for the big one. With reports of those catching the disease for the second time and still to see how they come out of that, it's so early days could they catch it for a third time, fourth time, I'd be surprised if anyone could survive 4 bouts in such a short time. For starters how on earth can we ever let elderly people out of their homes again with this about. Society, the economy we won't be able to sustain prolonged lockdowns. My fear is that we are going to hear of worse to come, even now as we think it can't get much worse after the next couple of weeks of high deaths. If Wuhan goes under again after the relaxing last week, it'll make countries review their strategies once again. I just really hope what we are seeing now is not the tip of the iceberg.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

100% inevitable and predictable. The characteristics of SARS-Cov2 don't alter, so any moves that increase social interaction must come with a risk that will rise exponentially the more the restrictions are eased.

The only way out is with significantly greater testing and continuing constraints until we have a vaccine. If an effective vaccine can't be found then we really are in trouble.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It's still early days but I wonder if we are on a course for the big one.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

With reports of those catching the disease for the second time and still to see how they come out of that, it's so early days could they catch it for a third time, fourth time, I'd be surprised if anyone could survive 4 bouts in such a short time. For starters how on earth can we ever let elderly people out of their homes again with this about. Society, the economy we won't be able to sustain prolonged lockdowns. My fear is that we are going to hear of worse to come, even now as we think it can't get much worse after the next couple of weeks of high deaths. If Wuhan goes under again after the relaxing last week, it'll make countries review their strategies once again. I just really hope what we are seeing now is not the tip of the iceberg.

I've made the point a few times now that we have been blessed to live in a period when advances in healthcare, medical and pharmaceutical sciences and public health have allowed us to live pretty much free of diseases that used to be endemic and feared.

We have to hope that a vaccine will become available. If people can be reinfected then that might require an annual vaccination or even, for vulnerable people, perhaps six-monthly vaccinations.  

If there is no effective vaccine then we're looking at quite a lot of deaths in the next 1-2 years and a permanent lowering of life expectancy because the current restrictions cannot go on indefinitely.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

ONS weekly Covid19uk death data up to 3/4 (2 weeks ago) just announced is scary.
Highest weekly total since records began in 2005. 6000 higher than seasonal average. MUCH worse than flu. Order of magnitude increase in care home deaths.
All BEFORE sharp rise in hospital deaths.

Originally Posted by: John p 

SK, NZ, Aus, Slovakia, Greece... this thing was/is containable. That's the biggest tragedy.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Do we actually know this as a fact or is it too early in its lifespan to know exactly? We don't get the same flu strain every year. It dies out, probably mostly through herd immunity and sometimes with the help of vaccine if they are lucky enough to predict the right strain. Doubtless each time the lockdown is eased there will be an increase but the rate of increase should be lower than the first wave as you'd like to think people will be much more self regulating than before, with or without a lockdown.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Ahhh, but if you beg to offer any critique of the government, the blind-faith Tory boys on here will soon attack with their metaphorical water cannon. 

Just check back to the lambasting I received back in the first week of March for daring to suggest Captain Slow (aka Boris) and his bunch of incompetent pricks of cabinet ministers were getting our national  approach to the Pandemic hopelessly wrong, and this putting thousands of lives at risk.

For all of Macron's failings, at least he has the good grace to admit mistakes.  Our lot are way too far up their own rectums to do that!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Ahhh, but if you beg to offer any critique of the government, the blind-faith Tory boys on here will soon attack with their metaphorical water cannon. 

Just check back to the lambasting I received back in the first week of March for daring to suggest Captain Slow (aka Boris) and his bunch of incompetent pricks of cabinet ministers were getting our national  approach to the Pandemic hopelessly wrong, and this putting thousands of lives at risk.

For all of Macron's failings, at least he has the good grace to admit mistakes.  Our lot are way too far up their own rectums to do that!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Very true.

Personally I'm VERY sceptical that a viable vaccine will be developed and manufactured quickly. Very sceptical indeed.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I share your scepticism too and am not optimistic at all about a reliable vaccine being found.

We are going to have to live with the ever present threat of this virus and accept the casualties.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

Three week extension being mooted this morning - which I think would tie in with what France have done.

Originally Posted by: westv 

I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.

All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.

Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  

Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.

All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.

Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  

Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Careful, you might get a suspension from llamedos or Michael. 

Criticism of the Tory Govt is unpatriotic

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I will not defend the government unquestioningly because mistakes have been made.

All I would say is that the options available were never binary, as you and others seem to want to suggest. Every policy action has a range of consequences and at the time clearly the scientists and other experts thought they had got the balance right in their advice.

Plus, it is way too early to be making judgments. This is going to run on for at least a year, maybe more, maybe forever. In that context shouldn't we wait and see the long-term outcomes? Hokkaido in Japan has just gone back into lockdown again; Singapore has had to impose tight restrictions. What you're doing is like predicting the result of the football match after a few minutes of the 90.  

Isn't it possible, indeed probable, that every country ends up in much the same place, just via different routes?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 Possibly suffering from toomuchtimeinmytwitterechochamberitis?

Originally Posted by: doctormog