Remove ads from site

Gavin D
15 April 2020 20:07:48

Regional data for new cases today in England


The 7 English regions 



  • London +479 (2.5%) 18,951

  • Midlands +409 (3.3%) 12,396

  • North West +455 (3.9%) 11,591

  • South East +880 (8.6%) 10,214

  • North East and Yorkshire +524 (5.1%) 10,210

  • East of England +143 (2.3%) 6,232

  • South West +196 (5.2%) 3,774


The 10 local areas with the highest cases



  1. Birmingham +47 (2.4%) 1,931

  2. Hampshire +124 (6.9%) 1,802

  3. Kent +113 (6.3%) 1,802

  4. Lancashire +60 (3.5%) 1,692

  5. Surrey +208 (12.6%) 1,649

  6. Essex +27 (1.7%) 1,589

  7. Hertfordshire +29 (1.9%) 1,552

  8. Sheffield +49 (3.6%) 1,365

  9. Cumbria +42 (3.3%) 1,278

  10. Brent +26 (2.4%) 1,063


The 10 local areas with the lowest cases



  1. Rutland +1 (8.3%) 12

  2. Isle of Wight +2 (3.6%) 55

  3. Hartlepool +1 (1.3%) 75

  4. North East Lincolnshire +5 (6.0%) 84

  5. Torbay +2 (1.9%) 103

  6. Peterborough +5 (4.6%) 108

  7. Herefordshire, County of +9 (7.4%) 122

  8. North Somerset +4 (3.2%) 124

  9. Bracknell Forest +27 (20.1%) 134

  10. North Lincolnshire +12 (8.8%) 136

Whether Idle
15 April 2020 20:08:19


 


 


Is there no  limits to this man's idiocy ?  


... I was going  to add something else, but it would probably get me banned ......


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


He is a good friend of Boris'.  Think on that.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gandalf The White
15 April 2020 20:11:25


 


 


Is there no  limits to this man's idiocy ?  


... I was going  to add something else, but it would probably get me banned ......


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Apparently not.  It had been said that Trump was struggling with the pandemic because he couldn't belittle a virus but he's managed to find someone to blame that can't fight back. What's particularly grating is that the things he blames the WHO for are the same as his mistakes but the WHO was reliant on information being provided by China whereas the US had other evidence but Trump chose to ignore it.


 


Did anyone else hear the news that Trump has demanded that all the welfare cheques being sent out by the federal government must have his name on them? Quite extraordinary but I guess he's desperate to get as much credit as he can, however undeserved.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
15 April 2020 20:12:39



There's no reason to assume there wouldn't be immunity lasting several months


Originally Posted by: four 



There is also no reason to assume there will

Unless you listen to TWO, which actually has all of the world's leading experts on the subject.   

And exactly no-one who knows a tulip.....   

But it's still fun to see what folk say 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gandalf The White
15 April 2020 20:12:41


 


He is a good friend of Boris'.  Think on that.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Well, he thinks he is. But is he?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
15 April 2020 20:13:43

Coronavirus: Top doctor urges UK government to consider Korean antibody tests




Quote

 


One of the country's leading doctors is urging the government to follow his antibody testing regime so the country can start working towards a confident lockdown exit strategy. Professor Karol Sikora is using inexpensive, self-administered kits imported from South Korea. The Sugentech kits cost less than £10 each and are widely used in South Korea and Germany - two countries with effective, proven testing regimes.


Thirty staff working at Professor Sikora's private cancer clinic in Reading have been screened to see if they are carrying COVID-19 antibodies using the self-administered kits. He told Sky News: "We're testing the blood of all the staff here for antibodies against coronavirus. There are two types: IGM, which peaks at about 10 days after infection, and IGG, which takes four or five weeks before it peaks. That's the problem with these kits and indeed with all antibody testing, it's the timing and the relationship to the infection. "We know that there are much better assets in the lab that are expensive that need to be sent off and they're better controlled, so we're doing both: the kits which are cheap, less than £7 a kit to do the test, and the more expensive lab tests to validate what we've got from the kits."


 





https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-top-doctor-urges-uk-government-to-consider-korean-antibody-tests-11973742


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 April 2020 20:19:17


Another aircraft carrier badly affected by CV19, the Charles de Gaulle has urgently returned to base with 668 of its crew testing positive so far, 31 hospitalised and 1 ventilated. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


BBC reports this evening that the Royal Navy is really trying to screw things up.letting sailors incubate Covid-19 on board, and then rotating crews so hat the said sailors go home on leave to spread it around.


Googling gives this site but the actual report is buried somewhere in all the other text. It was, however, on the 6pm news. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52289273


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
15 April 2020 20:25:10


 


 


Is there no  limits to this man's idiocy ?  


... I was going  to add something else, but it would probably get me banned ......


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Trump may be intellectually challenged but he more than makes makes up for it with his animal cunning - he has the instincts of a street-fighter and understands that the common man is as dumb - or dumber - than he is, and is motivated by the same base instincts. At the moment he is unstoppable. But as he continues to sack anyone who crosses him and surrounds himself by yes men he is sowing the seeds of his own downfall. It may take time but he will eventually fall under the sheer weight of his incompetence. Unless of course he succeeds in his obvious ambition of overturning the constitution and turning himself into an absolute dictator.  It's just tragic that currently the political opposition in the US has failed to offer up anyone who can match him.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Roger Parsons
15 April 2020 20:27:31

Trump may be intellectually challenged but he more than makes makes up for it with his animal cunning - he has the instincts of a street-fighter and understands that the common man is as dumb - or dumber - than he is, and is motivated by the same base instincts. At the moment he is unstoppable. But as he continues to sack anyone who crosses him and surrounds himself by yes men he is sowing the seeds of his own downfall. It may take time but he will eventually fall under the sheer weight of his incompetence. Unless of course he succeeds in his obvious ambition of overturning the constitution and turning himself into an absolute dictator.  It's just tragic that currently the political opposition in the US has failed to offer up anyone who can match him.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


All true. Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Bugglesgate
15 April 2020 20:31:43


 


Well, he thinks he is. But is he?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Well Boris is many things, but he's not totally unhinged.  I can't see how anyone with even a modicum of sanity could think Trump is anything other than a complete maniac !  I should imagine most world leaders laugh at him behind his back.  Didn't Boris get caught doing just that a while ago ?


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-macron-boris-johnson-trudeau-nato-laughing-buckingham-palace-a9231881.html


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Tim A
15 April 2020 20:31:44


 


Surely random testing is exactly what we should be doing? How else do you get a view of how many people are affected?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 I don't see its worth the time, effort and expense as it is only testing whether you have the virus at a particular point in time. E.g not a few weeks ago or a few weeks in the future. 


It certainly itsn't the policy to do random tests on large groups at the moment.


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
15 April 2020 20:34:41


Another aircraft carrier badly effected by CV19, the Charles de Gaulle has urgently returned to base with 668 of its crew testing positive so far, 31 hospitalised and 1 ventilated. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Back of fag packet + google is dangerous but:


668/1767 tested positive but 30% of the tests still to come back so 668/1237 => 54% test positive


30 in hospital => 30/1767 = 1.7% hospitalized


1 in ICU => 1/1767 = 0.06 % in ICU


I am also definitely a medical pleb, but can anything be gleaned from these figures? I would expect spread of the disease to be faster in a confined environment but fewer people to die as the crew will be younger than the general population. It looks like the vessel had been at sea since Jan 21, if you assume that the virus was brought on board at that point, can you get a worst case idea of the speed of the spread of the disease or bounds on R0? Are there historical similar cases of flu or other nasty diseases on ships to give any broad comparisons? How does it compare to cruise ship outbreaks where the passengers would be generally older? If you take a standard model of the disease spread and use it to simulate spread in a closed environment based on some assumptions do you get numbers similar to the ones above? And so on. I have no idea but I would hope cleverer people than me (or maybe the odd journalist?) are asking these questions.


Scaling this up to UK population size would suggest up to a million people eventually needing hospitalization and 36,000 in ICU on ventilators. This is probably invalid though given the different population demographics and environment.


 


--
Paul.
Sevendust
15 April 2020 20:40:49

Guinea and Aruba reported their first Covid deaths today

Brian Gaze
15 April 2020 20:45:56


Surely random testing is exactly what we should be doing? How else do you get a view of how many people are affected?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Agree with this. It would provide more information on the current state of the epidemic and stretch the muscles of the testing system which has allegedly been ramped up. I would expect both antigen and antibody testing to be increasingly important in the coming weeks as we try to move out of lockdown. So let's get testing the testing system - or at least the parts of it which are now in place.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Tim A
15 April 2020 20:51:55
I do actually think that strategy would have been good a few months ago and agree it will have value combined with antibody testing as we move out of lockdown.
Not sure how random testing can be co-ordinated though. Fairly easy to do with healthcare workers and patients but more of a logistical nightmare with the general population.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
15 April 2020 20:59:20


 


Back of fag packet + google is dangerous but:


668/1767 tested positive but 30% of the tests still to come back so 668/1237 => 54% test positive


30 in hospital => 30/1767 = 1.7% hospitalized


1 in ICU => 1/1767 = 0.06 % in ICU


I am also definitely a medical pleb, but can anything be gleaned from these figures? I would expect spread of the disease to be faster in a confined environment but fewer people to die as the crew will be younger than the general population. It looks like the vessel had been at sea since Jan 21, if you assume that the virus was brought on board at that point, can you get a worst case idea of the speed of the spread of the disease or bounds on R0? Are there historical similar cases of flu or other nasty diseases on ships to give any broad comparisons? How does it compare to cruise ship outbreaks where the passengers would be generally older? If you take a standard model of the disease spread and use it to simulate spread in a closed environment based on some assumptions do you get numbers similar to the ones above? And so on. I have no idea but I would hope cleverer people than me (or maybe the odd journalist?) are asking these questions.


Scaling this up to UK population size would suggest up to a million people eventually needing hospitalization and 36,000 in ICU on ventilators. This is probably invalid though given the different population demographics and environment.


 


Originally Posted by: pfw 


 That's not a cheery thought to end the day on over here. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
15 April 2020 21:02:18


 Surely random testing is exactly what we should be doing? How else do you get a view of how many people are affected?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I believe Germany (Bavaria) will start doing this and they will be testing the same group weekly.


 

xioni2
15 April 2020 21:04:22

I do actually think that strategy would have been good a few months ago and agree it will have value combined with antibody testing as we move out of lockdown.
Not sure how random testing can be co-ordinated though. Fairly easy to do with healthcare workers and patients but more of a logistical nightmare with the general population.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Austria used a polling company and a sample of 1500 people and found 0.33% to be infected.

Darren S
15 April 2020 21:27:24


Agree with this. It would provide more information on the current state of the epidemic and stretch the muscles of the testing system which has allegedly been ramped up. I would expect both antigen and antibody testing to be increasingly important in the coming weeks as we try to move out of lockdown. So let's get testing the testing system - or at least the parts of it which are now in place.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I posted about Prof Karol Sikora twice in this thread today, and Gavin D did further up this page. The article I posted earlier was this:


https://www.wokinghampaper.co.uk/medical-experts-in-shinfield-approve-covid-19-immunity-testing-kit/


Just to pick out part of the text, about the 2 out of 30 of his staff who tested positive:



These two people who are now immune have been working in the building. Both are full time, one an administrator and one a contract cleaner. 


“Both have had symptoms and been off work for a week or so in the last month.  “Both are pretty dedicated and sociable and so why are more of our staff not infected. 


“At a cancer centre with chemotherapy, radiotherapy and proton therapy mingling is inevitable.


“So the virus has been in the building and staff haven’t been ill.


So what we are seeing is 28 people have been exposed to the virus but don’t have strong antibodies for it.


“There have to be other immunity mechanisms at play. The average age of staff at our centres is under 30. There are reports of other immune mechanisms – NK cells, and local cytokines deactivating the virus without the need for an antibody response in younger people.


“It means that a ‘certificate of immunity’ policy to get people back to work is going to be difficult.”


This gives both hope and concern:


a) A considerable proportion of the population, maybe even a majority, skewed towards younger ages (especially children) cannot contract COVID-19. They can fight off the virus without getting symptoms or even testing positive. This is backed up by other examples of captive populations not catching the virus against the odds, including 80% of the passengers on the Diamond Princess.


b) This will make producing a vaccine difficult, because they could test the vaccine on volunteers, expose them to the virus, or a variant, and find that those volunteers don't catch the virus or get antibodies. But is that because of the virus, or for natural reasons?


c) Doing the kind of antibody testing across a subsection of the population may not prove anything. It may show that a low percentage (<5%) of the population have antibodies, but of the other 95% it won't be possible to know how many are susceptible to the virus, and how many simply can't catch it because of some kind of natural immunity.


 


 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Brian Gaze
15 April 2020 21:39:01


 


This gives both hope and concern:


a) A considerable proportion of the population, maybe even a majority, skewed towards younger ages (especially children) cannot contract COVID-19. They can fight off the virus without getting symptoms or even testing positive. This is backed up by other examples of captive populations not catching the virus against the odds, including 80% of the passengers on the Diamond Princess.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Appears to be different on the CDG though. From PFW's post (https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1205369#post1205369)


668/1767 tested positive but 30% of the tests still to come back so 668/1237 => 54% test positive


 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Tim A
15 April 2020 21:44:25


 


Austria used a polling company and a sample of 1500 people and found 0.33% to be infected.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


Perhaps one testing stream needs to be this measured approach then, or like the Bavarian approach. Test random samples from each local authority area weekly to get an idea of its prevalence . Would need different people and expertise involved than currently though.


Lots of the testing at the moment is very individual/organisational focused. Testing to help with individuals treatment or to assist a health facility to know if they have an outbreak. Not the bigger picture.  If these current and planned testing facilities are told to do 100k tests I suspect each one will end up pulling people in from different places to get the numbers up, a right mix making comparisons between areas difficult ,resulting in no meaningful overall data to identify hotspots. 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
xioni2
15 April 2020 22:01:24


Appears to be different on the CDG though. From PFW's post (https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1205369#post1205369)


668/1767 tested positive but 30% of the tests still to come back so 668/1237 => 54% test positive


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Obviously a warship is quite different to a cruise ship (bunk beds, no ensuite etc.)

Gandalf The White
15 April 2020 22:07:10


 


Obviously a warship is quite different to a cruise ship (bunk beds, no ensuite etc.)


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Taking everything into account are the two environments really very different? My instinct is that they're not.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
15 April 2020 22:08:53


c) Doing the kind of antibody testing across a subsection of the population may not prove anything. It may show that a low percentage (<5%) of the population have antibodies, but of the other 95% it won't be possible to know how many are susceptible to the virus, and how many simply can't catch it because of some kind of natural immunity.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Yes and the other problem with antibody testing is the accuracy. Even 90% accuracy would mean that testing 1m people would leave 100,000 people misdiagnosed making a 'certificate policy' very difficult as the epidemic could be restarted by just a few thousand people with false positives. I think we need closer to 99% accuracy, but I don't know if that will be feasible ever.


 

xioni2
15 April 2020 22:10:38


Taking everything into account are the two environments really very different? My instinct is that they're not.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I guess they are quite similar, but there are also important differences? Sleeping and toileting together must make it much easier for the virus to pass along?

Remove ads from site

Ads