That’s a lot more positives tests than I was expecting. Infection rate is still high.

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I don’t think there’s a deal of training involved, more likely a question of speed.  I’ve done a fair bit of fruit and veg picking and could make a decent wage if it was piece work but others couldn’t as they were just there to plod.  I didn’t see the point in plodding if there was money to be made.  I’ve more recently been involved in jobs where speed has been needed and Eastern Europeans have generally been quicker than the Brits. 

The current problem is not so much the lack of workers but location. Most farms are in rural locations, with very small populations and too far away for others to travel.  Whereas the Eastern Europeans tend to live on site for the season. 

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Except that in the absence of mass community testing, the majority of those currently being tested are those who believe they may have the infection or who are believed to have it.

 

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But isn't pillar 1 testing currently only people admitted to hospital? 

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Don't see the inconsistency myself:

"A third of the nearly 2,000 sailors who were aboard a French aircraft carrier and support craft when a coronavirus outbreak occurred at sea have tested positive.

With two-thirds of test results in, 668 sailors from the Charles de Gaulle and escort vessels in its battle group are confirmed to have COVID-19, France's defence ministry announced on Wednesday."

Two-thirds of test results are in - i.e. 1333

668 of those have tested positive = 50%

Not that dissimilar to the experience on the Theodore Roosevelt.

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738 new deaths in England up to 5pm Thursday down from 740 up to 5pm Wednesday

Breakdown by date

• 138 on April 16th


• 320 on April 15th


• 109 on April 14th


• 154 between April 1st and April 13th 


• 16 in March including one on March 21st

 

I have done some in my earlier days (training is minimal, speed is everything !) and it's bloody hard work, as is all  farming (I also worked  on a high intensive pig unit, that was also hard work with added nastiness !).  I couldn't do either at the right speed  now in my mid / late 50s.

It's a  bit like bricklaying.  I'm actually bloody good at it quality wise (my grandfather taught me the tricks of the trade)   it, but would starve to death if I did it piece rate for a living.

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In my opinion, current death rate is the wrong metric by which to set policy, since the death rate reflects the infection rate from three to four weeks ago or more. In determining how much the epidemic is coming under control, we need instead to look at hospital admissions on a daily basis, since that reflects more recent infection.

The death rate is a backwards looking indicator.

 

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Yeh that really doesn't  sound good at all.

Can we get pillar data now or do we have to wait until the daily update?

In order for it to be consistent with the model Pillar 2 has to account for 2104 cases

 

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It's  certainly a delayed indicator, but, surely, we have been in lock down long enough for it to start feeding though shortly ?   Hospital admissions  are now drifting down, but  slowly.  To me that suggests an R0 only slightly below 1 even with lock-down.  If so, it's a poor scene.  I'll be looking closely at the experience of out European neighbours as they easy lock-down. 

I'm fearing the worse to be honest.

 

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The figures quoted above - are they only for Pillar 1? Just asking, since I cannot see it stated anywhere.

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Yet you don't want to point the finger of blame at consumers who flock to the cheapest supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl, which are gaining market share and undercut the likes of Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury.

I saw a statistic that said we spend, as a society, less of our income on food than ever before.  That drives intensive farming methods, cheap imports, the push for cheap food stock for animals (which in turn was a factor in Mad Cow Disease) and a few other issues besides.

There is also the small matter of other businesses in the food supply chain; in macro terms supermarkets are not as dominant as you might think (think of the supply chain into restaurants, hotels, pubs, sandwich bars/take away outlets and so on).

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They are for Pillar 1 + Pillar 2.

So it might turn out to be okay but would require alot of cases to be pillar 2 (4x usual)

 

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Absolutely right. You want a reliable lead indicator and in the absence of extensive testing you're left with hospital admissions.

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​UK set for first coronavirus vaccine doses 'within the next seven days'

Quote

 

UK volunteers could be given the first dose of a potential coronavirus vaccine within the next week, researchers say. Experts at the University of Oxford are working hard to develop a vaccine that could prevent people from getting Covid-19.

They hope to have a candidate ready for clinical trials soon, and as part of their preparations the team aims to have at least a million doses available by about September. Sarah Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, who is leading the team said a vaccine could be available for use by the general public by the autumn. However, she said there is always an unknown and scientists can never be sure that vaccines are going to work.

Prof Gilbert explained previous comments in which she said she was 80% confident of the vaccine's success. She said: "Personally, I have a high degree of confidence.

 

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-first-coronavirus-vaccine-18108128

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The incubation period is thought to be up to two weeks, although I've seen upper end estimates above that. Another week or so before symptoms worsen (as with Boris Johnson, for example) and that's potentially 3-4 weeks, so it might not be until next week that numbers are clearly falling back.  Given the significant timemlage in reporting deaths it might even be w/c 27th before the headline numbers are dropping consistently.

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Indeed. One of the reasons I did not bother to model death rates.

 

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On the topic of a possible vaccine, there are a couple of concerns - here is one:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3080251/poor-immunity-or-mutations-south-korea-investigates

That is an interesting article.

Plus we have disturbing news from India that virus mutations have been detected there, particularly in the protein element (the protusions from the virus). If the protein is modified, it renders vaccines which concentrate on generating an antibodies to the protein, as much use as a chocolate teapot:

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mutation-study-covid-19-1497745

 

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That is a complete misrepresentation of that second link, in terms of what it says about a vaccine.

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Not that we should read much into that at this time, but that is 24 fewer deaths in Scotland than was reported yesterday I think?

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This is probably a better article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html

 

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The supermarkets set the prices they charge, not shoppers.

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A quote from the article in this second link.

Asked whether the findings have implications for the creation of a vaccine, Macciochi said: "According to the study it has a lower mutation rate particularly the s-protein [spike] which is the target of many vaccines.

"This is reassuring that this is a good target for vaccines. We do not know if the changes reported would change the ability of protective antibodies against spike to be redundant."

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Deaths (% rise) for the last 5 days are 6.2, 6.7, 6.3, 6.9, 6.8. Contrast that with those countries beginning to relax their restrictions

Italy - 2.4,2.7,2.9,2.8,2.2
Spain - 0.8,2.7,3.1,2.8,3.2
Austria - 5.1,4.3,2.3,4.3,5.1
Denmark - 4.7,3.9,3.3,4.9,4.4
Germany - 8.4,9.7,9.6,6.1,4.7

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I'm finding it hard to have any confidence in any numbers. What is there is just not up to scratch to capture stats for pandemics where some very important decision making needs to be made. I would not be surprised we have double counted in some cases!, though that would be good.

Agree, with what's available the hospital admissions should be used and the indicator for further down the line.

I am sure something could be set up now that was accurate to catch certain important high level figures with all the focus on these. It shouldn't be rocket science.