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doctormog
17 April 2020 16:07:18


 


I'm sure he meant to take a dig at me, but the truth is many people on here (including, I presume yourself) hold the two non contradictory ideas that:


a) Clapping for NHS workers is a nice gesture


b) Doing it in a way that makes it more likely you will end up meeting them is f*cking stupid.


 


Then again those that tried to draw some kind of analogy with my 5am runs where I stay a full 50m away from anyone else probably don't get it.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The comment about the runs is that you complain when anyone else dares to be out at the same time and  not that’s you are not social distancing. In addition it was a joke not an analogy.


Darren S
17 April 2020 16:07:20


 


Interesting notion, but doesn't modern mass transit negate that idea? The pictures from a few weeks ago showed tube and trains packed with people - many of these people could be natural loners who don't go around with a "hail fellow well met" attitude, but they are still packed in like sardines when on the way to and from work.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


No, I don't think so; by inference those are the people who are involved in the majority of social interactions (not only intentional interactions). Yes, a lot of people do use public transport, but a lot more don't.


I think at the very least, there is the possibility that people who are interacting, are mostly interacting with others who also do so. There is a huge number of people who don't need to interact with lots of other people on a daily basis.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gavin D
17 April 2020 16:13:41

Transport steady though it sounds like some areas may be a bit higher



Cases still fairly stable with a few daily variations 



Hospital cases remaining stable


Gavin D
17 April 2020 16:18:12

3,747 positive cases for non-key workers 

That's up slightly from 3,120 yesterday

Saint Snow
17 April 2020 16:19:02


 


Sorry? That simply doesn't reflect the evidence.


Supermarket pricing is driven by what customers will pay. If that wasn't the case then why are the likes of Lidl and Aldi taking market share by offering lower prices?


I appreciate that you feel obliged to take every possible opportunity to slag off the business sector but this time you're only focussing on a small part of the issue.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 



 


Of course [some] shoppers will shop where the supermarkets have set the lowest prices. But the shoppers don't walk into Aldi and say "Your pre-packed broccoli needs to be 50p" and Aldi comply. Shoppers can only buy the cheapest option available to them; if the cheapest pre-packed broccoli was £1, then shoppers would pay £1. Worth noting also that Aldi/Lidl are able to undercut the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury, etc by having much lower general overheads (more basic stores, smaller product ranges, less facilities, etc) not necessarily by strongarming suppliers more.


Supermarkets will aim to secure competitive advantage and/or maximise profit by seeking the lowest price for the produce they sell. I have clients who supply a whole range of retail giants and they all say the same thing: retail giants constantly pressure them to lower their prices, fund 'special promotions', agree to longer payment terms, etc.


Of course, suppliers then seek to maximise sales whilst maintaining at least some level of margin so look to cut costs; generally a large proportion of the costs is labour and this is one area (thanks to legislation shackling the abilty of employees to fight erosions of their income/t&c's) that is usually targeted.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Heavy Weather 2013
17 April 2020 16:23:57
Gowns to run out in hours:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/nhs-staff-to-be-asked-to-treat-coronavirus-patients-without-gowns? 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
17 April 2020 16:28:00
I know it’s the fail. But trump has really lost the plot:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8230031/amp/Trump-tells-Dem-governors-LIBERATE-Michigan-Virginia-Minnesota.html?__twitter_impression=true 

He is almost spuring these people on. They have guns and could use them. We all know it doesn’t take much for a gun nut in the USA to go on a shooting spree.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
SJV
17 April 2020 16:28:35

Today's latest NHS England deaths by actual day chart as of 17 April showing a continuing plateau...


(open in new tab for larger version)



More useful than the 'daily' deaths given by PHE, in my opinion.

Chunky Pea
17 April 2020 16:29:05

Interesting discussion here on the role of the WHO in the spreading of this God damn pandemic. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Up4kbZeB2OM


Increasingly obvious that what some call a 'genuine mistake' was actually deliberate and total incompetence. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
17 April 2020 16:32:30


 


 



 


Of course [some] shoppers will shop where the supermarkets have set the lowest prices. But the shoppers don't walk into Aldi and say "Your pre-packed broccoli needs to be 50p" and Aldi comply. Shoppers can only buy the cheapest option available to them; if the cheapest pre-packed broccoli was £1, then shoppers would pay £1. Worth noting also that Aldi/Lidl are able to undercut the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury, etc by having much lower general overheads (more basic stores, smaller product ranges, less facilities, etc) not necessarily by strongarming suppliers more.


Supermarkets will aim to secure competitive advantage and/or maximise profit by seeking the lowest price for the produce they sell. I have clients who supply a whole range of retail giants and they all say the same thing: retail giants constantly pressure them to lower their prices, fund 'special promotions', agree to longer payment terms, etc.


Of course, suppliers then seek to maximise sales whilst maintaining at least some level of margin so look to cut costs; generally a large proportion of the costs is labour and this is one area (thanks to legislation shackling the abilty of employees to fight erosions of their income/t&c's) that is usually targeted.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Heavy Weather 2013
17 April 2020 16:32:48


Today's latest NHS England deaths by actual day chart as of 17 April showing a continuing plateau...


(open in new tab for larger version)



More useful than the 'daily' deaths given by PHE, in my opinion.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Very useful. Do you have a link to this?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
xioni2
17 April 2020 16:35:51


Today's latest NHS England deaths by actual day chart as of 17 April showing a continuing plateau...


(open in new tab for larger version)



More useful than the 'daily' deaths given by PHE, in my opinion.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Indeed, but with the caveat that these numbers are constantly being revised (e.g. the peak of 8 April has been revised higher again today). Let's hope that the 8th was indeed the peak.

Quantum
17 April 2020 16:36:39


 


The comment about the runs is that you complain when anyone else dares to be out at the same time and  not that’s you are not social distancing. In addition it was a joke not an analogy.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Those were obviously tounge in cheeck comments!


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
SJV
17 April 2020 16:36:44


 


Very useful. Do you have a link to this?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It's on the Coronavirus UK subreddit. It's just the chart, though.


https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/g32jqj/todays_latest_nhs_england_deaths_by_actual_day/



Indeed, but with the caveat that these numbers are constantly being revised (e.g. the peak of 8 April has been revised higher again today). Let's hope that the 8th was indeed the peak.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes that's very much worth bearing in mind, too 


 

xioni2
17 April 2020 16:36:51

I know it’s the fail. But trump has really lost the plot:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8230031/amp/Trump-tells-Dem-governors-LIBERATE-Michigan-Virginia-Minnesota.html?__twitter_impression=true

He is almost spuring these people on. They have guns and could use them. We all know it doesn’t take much for a gun nut in the USA to go on a shooting spree.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


He really needs to be imprisoned or sectioned, he is a threat to humanity.

Gandalf The White
17 April 2020 16:37:18


Today's latest NHS England deaths by actual day chart as of 17 April showing a continuing plateau...


(open in new tab for larger version)



More useful than the 'daily' deaths given by PHE, in my opinion.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


That's much more helpful. The 5-day trend line will turn downwards over the next two days as the 7th and 8th drop out, unless there's an unexpected spike.


Modestly encouraging.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
17 April 2020 16:37:29
Italy

3,493 new cases

575 new deaths.
Gandalf The White
17 April 2020 16:39:51


 


Indeed, but with the caveat that these numbers are constantly being revised (e.g. the peak of 8 April has been revised higher again today). Let's hope that the 8th was indeed the peak.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Good point, but from memory the number of cases being reported more than a week late is quite low.


It's also a reality check for those who were predicting that we'd see figures well over 1,000 per day at the peak.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
17 April 2020 16:40:44

JFF model update.


https://i.ibb.co/LYt0948/jff1704.jpg


 


Confirmed: 4673


Projected: 3459


 


Model more than 1000 under, as expected. Hopefully this is just a 'big jump day' and we can expect to be back down tommorow.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
17 April 2020 16:42:32


Transport steady though it sounds like some areas may be a bit higher



Cases still fairly stable with a few daily variations 



Hospital cases remaining stable



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Looks like the highest pillar 1 count for 6 or 7 days.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
17 April 2020 16:43:35


JFF model update.


https://i.ibb.co/LYt0948/jff1704.jpg


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I haven't really followed your model, but since you like this stuff perhaps you can make a proper verification as the plots can only tell a certain amount? You can't really test against normal or persistence, but there are ways to test for accuracy, reliability and resolution.

Bugglesgate
17 April 2020 16:46:31


 


 



 


Of course [some] shoppers will shop where the supermarkets have set the lowest prices. But the shoppers don't walk into Aldi and say "Your pre-packed broccoli needs to be 50p" and Aldi comply. Shoppers can only buy the cheapest option available to them; if the cheapest pre-packed broccoli was £1, then shoppers would pay £1. Worth noting also that Aldi/Lidl are able to undercut the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury, etc by having much lower general overheads (more basic stores, smaller product ranges, less facilities, etc) not necessarily by strongarming suppliers more.


Supermarkets will aim to secure competitive advantage and/or maximise profit by seeking the lowest price for the produce they sell. I have clients who supply a whole range of retail giants and they all say the same thing: retail giants constantly pressure them to lower their prices, fund 'special promotions', agree to longer payment terms, etc.


Of course, suppliers then seek to maximise sales whilst maintaining at least some level of margin so look to cut costs; generally a large proportion of the costs is labour and this is one area (thanks to legislation shackling the abilty of employees to fight erosions of their income/t&c's) that is usually targeted.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 



When Dad was working (sales director in the food supply industry),  he found Tesco to be a bunch  of complete ckunts - Their buyers instructed to screw suppliers right into the ground.   By contrast,  he always found Aldi and Lidl  to be  very keen  to forge a good working relationship. The company could make a civilised (although not excessive) and  the Germans still managed to undercut Tesco's shelf prices.


 


 


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Quantum
17 April 2020 16:47:23


 


I haven't really followed your model, but since you like this stuff perhaps you can make a proper verification as the plots can only tell a certain amount? You can't really test against normal or persistence, but there are ways to test for accuracy, reliability and resolution.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Could start including error plots or something similar. What kind of validation stats would you find most useful?


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
17 April 2020 16:49:22


 Could start including error plots or something similar. What kind of validation stats would you find most useful?


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You the player 


Seriously it depends how much time you want to spend on it and how much you want to dig in. 

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