Traffic levels do seem almost normal round here. I don't know what these people are doing! A lot may be deliveries which is another way to spread the virus. I think food takeaways should be banned. That's not essential.  Not because I never use them, but that whole process must be part of the continued spread

I see all London Buses are now free until card readers are installed by the middle doors!

I am tempted to take a round trip journey somewhere just to give me something to do! 

Can only agree with this. And it seems when there is a big announcement, the media know all about it so its no surprise when someone stands behind a podium and says the things we already know. Moles, Leaked documents, sources say, it seems the media have their own secret channels and network that feed them. When you then get presenters shaking their heads or trying to tell it story fashion (like BBC Laura K), its like they are trying to influence what you should be thinking on their agenda.

As you say the media should report facts, not material that could or would or might or perhaps.

Rant over!

This is the best measure I’ve seen of quite how few #COVID19 tests the UK has done. It is an international league table of countries ranked by percentage of population tested, compiled by Julian Ozanne (who was on FT with me in another life). The UK comes 20th out of 20 pic.twitter.com/pvJaMe3GH6

— Robert Peston (@Peston) April 17, 2020

Has Germany actually 'cracked it?
From the BBC news ticker:
"There has been a rise in the number of new infections in Germany, for the fourth day in a row.
The latest figures, from the Robert Koch Institute, show there were 3,609 new cases in the past 24 hours. There were also 242 deaths, taking the country's total tally to 4,110".

I have been critical of the government's handling of this crisis but i can't help wondering what the criteria were for choosing those 20 countries. Do they fall into some group (its not the G20) or is it simply just 19 countries who have done more testing than us?

There has been a shift in the media - the norm is to run spoilers for everything, from the Queen's speech to daily government announcements following "closed" meetings. We are so constantly "played" we no longer have news, only repeats of information already given. Does anyone respect an embargo these days?  Everything is now retrospective. Whatever happened to foreplay? Picture Laura Kuenssberg saying "This is how it's going to have been for me...."

R.

This should be setting off alarm bells in all of Europe including the UK. Very very alarming.

There has been a rise in the number of new infections in Germany, for the fourth day in a row.

The latest figures, from the Robert Koch Institute, show there were 3,609 new cases in the past 24 hours. There were also 242 deaths, taking the country's total tally to 4,110. [Source: BBC]

Yup. My view is, as it has been for a while now, that a full lockdown - Wuhan style - is impossible, not least because there's no way to enforce it. We'll just have to live with the virus for the time being and as long as the NHS isn't overwhelmed, I imagine we'll see a "sine wave" effect of lockdowns, easings-up and further lockdowns.

It is completely impossible to eradicate this thing without herd immunity, be it from contagion or a vaccine, so the best we can hope for is that deaths are kept at a manageable level.

Brian did they lift some of their restrictions this week?

I think they're just starting.

Belgium has the highest per capita death rate in Europe, but they have today lifted restrictions on DIY stores and garden centres (but social distancing measures must be in place).

There is a really good argument for lifting restrictions on garden centres in the UK - their produce is seasonal and going to waste, they have large open spaces and can readily implement the kind of social distancing supermarkets have enforced.

I am sick of most journalism during this pandemic - ignorant journalists throwing out ignorant questions and opinions. However, this morning on BBC News channel, they were interviewing two scientists - Chris Smith of Naked Scientist and Chris Martin (an economist) - very informative with issues clearly discussed and common misconceptions put to bed. Journalists should acquaint themselves with the science before getting apoplectic about things they know nothing about.

This made me laugh because it seems the government is thinking the same as some of us 

One reason that there is no clear exit strategy is because the scientists cannot agree on one. Irritation is growing among the government’s scientific advisers at Professor Ferguson’s appetite for publicity.

There is a suggestion that his media appearances imbue the modelling with a sense of finality that is not justified by the scientific uncertainties.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lack-of-political-leader-leaves-scientists-in-charge-say-tories-z72sdfcdn

It might return or still be around but with a severe lockdown then it can be traced and quarantined and kept under proper control.

The other way we could solve this problem is go the other extreme and scrap the current restrictions go back to normal and let nature take its course,survival of the fittest!

Im afraid its going to have to be a choice of either extremes at the end of the day as fannying around like we are isn`t benefiting anyone or solving the problem and causing more economic damage than either a 100% lockdown or letting it rip would do.

In a way its like Brexit either all or nothing not half in half out.

But their infection rate is 0.7, surely that is the relevant figure we should be looking at??? I really do not see how those figures above can be considered alarming 

Which is where someone like Chris Smith of Naked Scientist scores as he did on the BBC this morning. He freely admitted that at this stage nobody actually knows the way out of the current situation. There is no immediate working vaccine in prospect, nobody knows exactly what would happen if the lockdown were eased, the best thing is to see what happens in other countries which are currently easing their lockdowns. He also said that a lockdown cannot be indefinite, that vulnerable people will have to be isolated for a long time, but in all events there are trade offs to manage between different levels of risk - epidemiological, economic and psychological.

You cannot keep everyone confined for ever, so there have to be strategies for mitigating outcomes when things are relaxed.

Our infection rate has been steady at around 4k-5k per week. Yes the rate isn’t massive but it hasn’t stopped the deaths being in the 600-700 range. 

In Italy, there still seeing infection rates of between 3k-4k and 500 deaths daily. 

The percentage increase when you have x number of cases is meaningless as a lot of those would have already recovered

Sorrry, Saint, but increasingly you are letting your political view drag you into making some very questionable comments.

As Michael has explained, we need the extra beds, first and foremost. You cannot magic trained nurses and doctors from thin air and even if there were no unfilled vacancies we would still be stretched because nobody has or would suggest resourcing in normal times to meet the needs of a global pandemic.

I had assumed that the Nightingales would be used primarily to deal with non-critical cases, where the ratio of patients to nurses can be higher without compromising the level of healthcare. But there are medical teams working in the armed forces and there are those retired staff who have volunteered to help out, so we have some extra resources.

The strategic healthcare issue is whether, given the steady uptick in outbreaks of novel viruses, the level of readiness and resourcing needs to be higher in the future. That, as with all government spending, is about priorities.

If we are faced with giving 50-60 million people a SARS-Cov2 vaccine once a year, perhaps for the vulnerable, twice a year (assuming we find a vacccine), that's potentially around £1 billion per annum alone.

7,500 feared to have died of coronavirus in UK care homes

The number of care home residents who have died of suspected coronavirus may have reached 7,500, according to the latest estimate, The Telegraph has learned.

New data collated by Care England, the country's largest representative body for care homes, suggests the number of deaths from Covid-19 is far higher than its previous estimate of 1,400 from earlier this week.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/number-coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-could-high-7500-according/

Peston is a plonker - an example of a journalist commenting on things he knows absolutely nothing about.

The Nightingale hospitals are there primarily for the second wave of contagion in the early autumn, so the mainstream NHS has the capacity free to deal with the normal non-COVID caseload. They are not a PR stunt, but they were not primarily intended for the first wave of infections.

That's not really true, except in the narrowest interpretation of the words. We know exactly what would happen because we have examples from elsewhere in the world already (eg Hokkaido) and because the mathematics of a pandemic tells you what will happen.

Yes, there are trade offs, but the government is being condemned on all sides, especially here, for 'errors' early on when it tried to find the right balance in the 'trade offs'.

I will keep repeating this: there are no good options; only least bad options.

We should be grateful that we don't have Boris Johnson tweeting from Chequers that the citizens of Yorkshire or Surrey should be on the streets demanding their rights.

A man who made his name covering the financial crash in 2007-8 and should have stuck to his supposed area of expertise.

Oddly the shock-jock Morgan has turned out be far more knowledgeable and effective than Peston. Who would have thought it?

He's 100% right. It's not good enough to say the stats are hard to come by or COVID-19 wasn't an option on the death certificates. For crying out loud what is going on in care homes in the UK?

If this is correct, it would take UK #coronavirus death toll to over 22,000 & place us 3rd in the world behind USA & Italy. The Govt must urgently clarify exactly how many people are dying in our care homes. 👇 https://t.co/SNImEthTv4

— *****Morgan (@piersmorgan) April 18, 2020

Peston questioning style really doesn’t help his cause. I’ve often forgotten his first question when he is asking his second.