NHS England have reported 784 new deaths up from 738 yesterday

The patients were aged between 26 and 100.

38 aged between 44 and 96 had no known underlying health conditions when they tested positive for Coronavirus

We seem to be going along a wide plateau, rather than a discreet peak.  Where are these 5k new cases per day getting infected? Hopefully those infected are those not adhering to the lockdown, but I suspect these cases are coming from supermarket shoppers.  My Sainsbury’s this morning was full of people not social distancing.

I’ve also noticed Spain seem to have settled into a ‘norm’ of approx 550 deaths per day, long after the lock down.

Some interesting points but there is absolutely no acknowledgement of the key driver of the government policy, i.e. trying to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed by cases. It was that, and the associated level of fatalities, which drove the policy change.

Saying that the flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown is not evidence based. For a scientist that's pretty poor.

Covid-19 is not similar to flu: the fundamental and key differences are how much more contagious Covid-19 is and how much greater a proportion end up needing hospitalisation. Coupled with the fact that as a novel virus there is no way, unlike with seasonal flu, of protecting vulnerable people.

There is little evidence that the fatality rate is as low as 0.1%; again, for a scientist to make such a claim is pretty poor.

I'd says ours is beginning to look more like twin peaks. 

784 new deaths in England up to 5pm Friday 

Breakdown by date

• 150 on April 17th


• 320 on April 16th


• 101 on April 15th


• 187 between April 1st and April 14th


• 26 in March with one on March 14th

The CMO, I think, did predict a levelling off before a drop.

It requires everyone to follow the social distancing rules; one idiot determined to do his/her own thing puts others at risk. There were several such numpties in our Tesco when we went shopping and even more in a completely disorganised M&S, where people were largely just shopping as they would normally.

The problem is that the longer this goes on the more it becomes subconscious rather than conscious and the more people will forget and/or get bored with doing it.

Earlier today someone suggested only a 100% lockdown for four weeks would work but even that's not possible. You cannot eliminate this virus completely - some places will have to be open (hospitals, food distribution centres) and there will be interactions.

I popped into the local butcher this morning.  I was the only one in there initially and was half way through getting my stuff  when an elderly woman entered.  She  kept coming towards me and I kept backing off until I ran out of space, she then stopped but I think it was only becuase  she had reached the dead centre of the servicing counter   .  When I came to leave,  I couldn't get past her  without  almost brushing her (it's a very small shop). The butcher  could see what was going on and he   asked her to move to a side isle. Don't get me wrong, she  wasn't  rude or objectionable, just totally, totally oblivious to  the whole social distancing "thing".  She was the one that was at great risk than me by dint of age - she must have been in her mid 80s !

Symptoms wise, it is. Almost indistinguishable I have heard. 

And I suspect that he is only one of many. Not just in the UK, but all over the world. 

To be honest I think it's too early to make any definitive judgements one way or the other. The only definite points we seem to know is in general it's worse for older people, especially those with health problems. Other risk factors look to include being male and being overweight. 

Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind and as to what the correct strategy should be, I have no idea.

48-hour reporting periods from Monday to Friday this week for NHS England new deaths

• 13th/14th - 340 (Includes lower data from Easter Monday)


• 14th/15th - 465


• 15th/16th - 458


• 16th/17th - 470

Based on one snippet of a video you conclude there might be 'a lot of unsafe convictions' ??????

Really?

We don't even see what happened before but it seems quite possible that the guy was being a plonker. The last video clip I saw alleging police misbehaviour was much the same: an idiot not complying with a polite request.

I would add that the guy posting that clip describes himself as a 'political activist' and his Twitter feed has others making absurd comments - including one suggesting that the police brought in this law themselves..... the level of stupidity, ignorance and the number of malevolent comments is staggering.

There is obviously already a large amount of data from other countries that allows for an early comparison, but I accept that we are still in the early stages of the pandemic.

Agreed. As I said last night, there is no good option in all of this, just less bad options.

But your post Ian yet another example of another 'expert' with a different opinion. There are many experts out there and a range of differing opinions. But what I found staggeringly poor was the absence of any acknowledgment of the need to try to keep cases within the capabilities of each nation's healthcare systems. Frankly, failing to acknowledge that basic parameter was an instant 'fail'.

Regardless of what happened you cannot have an officer of the law saying he would make up a reason for an arrest and then going on to say who would they believe.

If you are unable to see that then you are looking through rose coloured glasses. 

Yes and no.

Populations from country to country are not homogenous: age distribution, general levels of health/fitness.

Healthcare systems are not homogenous from one country to the next.

The way countries capture and report data is not homogeneous.

The willingness of a population to comply with rules is not homogenous.

I recall alarm at the rapid rise of the outbreak in Italy and the apparent ease with which Germany controlled the pandemic in the first weeks. Both had explanations.

Yes and no too. Of course no two countries are the same, but comparisons can still be made. Early and aggressive action already stands out as a predictor of a low number of deaths.

If you seriously believe he would actually have done that then you're the one who needs to take a step back.  He shouldn't have said it but he was irritated by the guy's behaviour. He shouldn't have been but we're all human and occasionally overreact.  If you always remain calm and measured whatever the provocation then you deserve a medal.

The police have to deal with an awful lot and in the current climate my sympathies are with them having to deal with a minority of antisocial idiots.

Possibly, but what stood out for me in that table that was posted earlier was the date of the third death. The countries with the quicker responses were the ones which had several weeks longer to watch what was unfolding elsewhere.

Yes, exactly.

Whether or nay, they sure are loving it. Power hungry pot bellies. 

👍

Anyone convicted with the involvement of evidence from this officer would now have an excellent case for an appeal.

Greece may have kept the virus out for now but managing to release the lockdown and reintroduce any tourism (18% of GDP) whilst not having cases reintroduced is a circle they will struggle to square. No one is going to self quarantine for two weeks before a package holiday. Only way to stop these kind of issues for many countries seems to be lock down until vaccine. Either economic meltdown or social meltdown

I watched the interview and think your criticism is valid. I could understand the hybrid approach taken in Sweden, they banned mass events very early, they closed Universities and secondary schools and they apply moderate physical distancing (no serving at the bar, no queuing etc.), but without closing all shops and restaurants. Their rationale is that this will be an easier strategy to maintain longer term until the possible vaccine arrives, but without overwhelming their healthcare system. The last point is critical though, Sweden has an excellent healthcare system, many other countries don't.

I was also not happy with the certainty he expressed on various points (high percentage of infections, antibodies tests etc.).