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Gavin D
18 April 2020 13:21:45

NHS England have reported 784 new deaths up from 738 yesterday


The patients were aged between 26 and 100.


38 aged between 44 and 96 had no known underlying health conditions when they tested positive for Coronavirus

John p
18 April 2020 13:23:46

New UK Deaths: 888
New UK cases: 5.5K

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


We seem to be going along a wide plateau, rather than a discreet peak.  Where are these 5k new cases per day getting infected? Hopefully those infected are those not adhering to the lockdown, but I suspect these cases are coming from supermarket shoppers.  My Sainsbury’s this morning was full of people not social distancing.


I’ve also noticed Spain seem to have settled into a ‘norm’ of approx 550 deaths per day, long after the lock down.


Camberley, Surrey
Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 13:30:31


Here's a different take on things from Professor Johan Giesecke - https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/



  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

  • The paper was very much too pessimistic

  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries

  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Some interesting points but there is absolutely no acknowledgement of the key driver of the government policy, i.e. trying to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed by cases. It was that, and the associated level of fatalities, which drove the policy change.


Saying that the flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown is not evidence based. For a scientist that's pretty poor.


Covid-19 is not similar to flu: the fundamental and key differences are how much more contagious Covid-19 is and how much greater a proportion end up needing hospitalisation. Coupled with the fact that as a novel virus there is no way, unlike with seasonal flu, of protecting vulnerable people.


There is little evidence that the fatality rate is as low as 0.1%; again, for a scientist to make such a claim is pretty poor.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
18 April 2020 13:32:33


 


We seem to be going a long a wide plateau, rather than a discreet peak.  Where are these 5k new cases per day getting infected? Hopefully those infected ate those not adhering to the lockdown, but I suspect these cases are coming from supermarket shoppers.  My Sainsbury’s this morning was full of people not social distancing.


I’ve also noticed Spain seem to have settled into a ‘norm’ of approx 550 deaths per day, long after the lock down.


Originally Posted by: John p 


I'd says ours is beginning to look more like twin peaks. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
18 April 2020 13:34:22

784 new deaths in England up to 5pm Friday 


Breakdown by date



  • 150 on April 17th

  • 320 on April 16th

  • 101 on April 15th

  • 187 between April 1st and April 14th

  • 26 in March with one on March 14th

Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 13:38:10


 


We seem to be going a long a wide plateau, rather than a discreet peak.  Where are these 5k new cases per day getting infected? Hopefully those infected ate those not adhering to the lockdown, but I suspect these cases are coming from supermarket shoppers.  My Sainsbury’s this morning was full of people not social distancing.


I’ve also noticed Spain seem to have settled into a ‘norm’ of approx 550 deaths per day, long after the lock down.


Originally Posted by: John p 


The CMO, I think, did predict a levelling off before a drop.


It requires everyone to follow the social distancing rules; one idiot determined to do his/her own thing puts others at risk. There were several such numpties in our Tesco when we went shopping and even more in a completely disorganised M&S, where people were largely just shopping as they would normally.


The problem is that the longer this goes on the more it becomes subconscious rather than conscious and the more people will forget and/or get bored with doing it.


Earlier today someone suggested only a 100% lockdown for four weeks would work but even that's not possible. You cannot eliminate this virus completely - some places will have to be open (hospitals, food distribution centres) and there will be interactions.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bugglesgate
18 April 2020 13:39:05


 


We seem to be going a long a wide plateau, rather than a discreet peak.  Where are these 5k new cases per day getting infected? Hopefully those infected ate those not adhering to the lockdown, but I suspect these cases are coming from supermarket shoppers.  My Sainsbury’s this morning was full of people not social distancing.


I’ve also noticed Spain seem to have settled into a ‘norm’ of approx 550 deaths per day, long after the lock down.


Originally Posted by: John p 


I popped into the local butcher this morning.  I was the only one in there initially and was half way through getting my stuff  when an elderly woman entered.  She  kept coming towards me and I kept backing off until I ran out of space, she then stopped but I think it was only becuase  she had reached the dead centre of the servicing counter   .  When I came to leave,  I couldn't get past her  without  almost brushing her (it's a very small shop). The butcher  could see what was going on and he   asked her to move to a side isle. Don't get me wrong, she  wasn't  rude or objectionable, just totally, totally oblivious to  the whole social distancing "thing".  She was the one that was at great risk than me by dint of age - she must have been in her mid 80s !


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Chunky Pea
18 April 2020 13:39:33


Covid-19 is not similar to flu: 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Symptoms wise, it is. Almost indistinguishable I have heard. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
18 April 2020 13:42:39


 


Astonishing. I suspect there are now a lot of unsafe convictions that will be reviewed from that officer.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


And I suspect that he is only one of many. Not just in the UK, but all over the world. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Heavy Weather 2013
18 April 2020 13:44:08
Traffic around here feels normal. I think the government need to start highlighting where traffic is high and low.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Northern Sky
18 April 2020 13:46:34


 


Some interesting points but there is absolutely no acknowledgement of the key driver of the government policy, i.e. trying to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed by cases. It was that, and the associated level of fatalities, which drove the policy change.


Saying that the flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown is not evidence based. For a scientist that's pretty poor.


Covid-19 is not similar to flu: the fundamental and key differences are how much more contagious Covid-19 is and how much greater a proportion end up needing hospitalisation. Coupled with the fact that as a novel virus there is no way, unlike with seasonal flu, of protecting vulnerable people.


There is little evidence that the fatality rate is as low as 0.1%; again, for a scientist to make such a claim is pretty poor.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


To be honest I think it's too early to make any definitive judgements one way or the other. The only definite points we seem to know is in general it's worse for older people, especially those with health problems. Other risk factors look to include being male and being overweight. 


Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind and as to what the correct strategy should be, I have no idea.

Gavin D
18 April 2020 13:47:08

48-hour reporting periods from Monday to Friday this week for NHS England new deaths



  • 13th/14th - 340 (Includes lower data from Easter Monday)

  • 14th/15th - 465

  • 15th/16th - 458

  • 16th/17th - 470

Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 13:48:57


 


Astonishing. I suspect there are now a lot of unsafe convictions that will be reviewed from that officer.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Based on one snippet of a video you conclude there might be 'a lot of unsafe convictions' ??????


Really?


We don't even see what happened before but it seems quite possible that the guy was being a plonker. The last video clip I saw alleging police misbehaviour was much the same: an idiot not complying with a polite request.


I would add that the guy posting that clip describes himself as a 'political activist' and his Twitter feed has others making absurd comments - including one suggesting that the police brought in this law themselves..... the level of stupidity, ignorance and the number of malevolent comments is staggering.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
18 April 2020 13:49:13


 Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind and as to what the correct strategy should be, I have no idea.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


There is obviously already a large amount of data from other countries that allows for an early comparison, but I accept that we are still in the early stages of the pandemic.

Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 13:54:10


 


To be honest I think it's too early to make any definitive judgements one way or the other. The only definite points we seem to know is in general it's worse for older people, especially those with health problems. Other risk factors look to include being male and being overweight. 


Beyond that I'm keeping an open mind and as to what the correct strategy should be, I have no idea.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Agreed. As I said last night, there is no good option in all of this, just less bad options.


But your post Ian yet another example of another 'expert' with a different opinion. There are many experts out there and a range of differing opinions. But what I found staggeringly poor was the absence of any acknowledgment of the need to try to keep cases within the capabilities of each nation's healthcare systems. Frankly, failing to acknowledge that basic parameter was an instant 'fail'.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
18 April 2020 13:58:05


 


Based on one snippet of a video you conclude there might be 'a lot of unsafe convictions' ??????


Really?


We don't even see what happened before but it seems quite possible that the guy was being a plonker. The last video clip I saw alleging police misbehaviour was much the same: an idiot not complying with a polite request.


I would add that the guy posting that clip describes himself as a 'political activist' and his Twitter feed has others making absurd comments - including one suggesting that the police brought in this law themselves..... the level of stupidity, ignorance and the number of malevolent comments is staggering.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Regardless of what happened you cannot have an officer of the law saying he would make up a reason for an arrest and then going on to say who would they believe.


If you are unable to see that then you are looking through rose coloured glasses. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 14:01:22


 


There is obviously already a large amount of data from other countries that allows for an early comparison, but I accept that we are still in the early stages of the pandemic.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes and no.


Populations from country to country are not homogenous: age distribution, general levels of health/fitness.


Healthcare systems are not homogenous from one country to the next.


The way countries capture and report data is not homogeneous.


The willingness of a population to comply with rules is not homogenous.


 


I recall alarm at the rapid rise of the outbreak in Italy and the apparent ease with which Germany controlled the pandemic in the first weeks. Both had explanations.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
18 April 2020 14:03:30


 Yes and no.


Populations from country to country are not homogenous: age distribution, general levels of health/fitness.


Healthcare systems are not homogenous from one country to the next.


The way countries capture and report data is not homogeneous.


The willingness of a population to comply with rules is not homogenous.


 I recall alarm at the rapid rise of the outbreak in Italy and the apparent ease with which Germany controlled the pandemic in the first weeks. Both had explanations.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes and no too. Of course no two countries are the same, but comparisons can still be made. Early and aggressive action already stands out as a predictor of a low number of deaths.


 

Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 14:04:14


 


Regardless of what happened you cannot have an officer of the law saying he would make up a reason for an arrest and then going on to say who would they believe.


If you are unable to see that then you are looking through rose coloured glasses. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


If you seriously believe he would actually have done that then you're the one who needs to take a step back.  He shouldn't have said it but he was irritated by the guy's behaviour. He shouldn't have been but we're all human and occasionally overreact.  If you always remain calm and measured whatever the provocation then you deserve a medal.


The police have to deal with an awful lot and in the current climate my sympathies are with them having to deal with a minority of antisocial idiots.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
18 April 2020 14:05:37


 


Yes and no too. Of course no two countries are the same, but comparisons can still be made. Early and aggressive action already stands out as a predictor of a low number of deaths.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Possibly, but what stood out for me in that table that was posted earlier was the date of the third death. The countries with the quicker responses were the ones which had several weeks longer to watch what was unfolding elsewhere.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
18 April 2020 14:06:56


 Possibly, but what stood out for me in that table that was posted earlier was the date of the third death. The countries with the quicker responses were the ones which had several weeks longer to watch what was unfolding elsewhere.


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, exactly.

Chunky Pea
18 April 2020 14:09:48


 


I would add that the guy posting that clip describes himself as a 'political activist' and his Twitter feed has others making absurd comments - including one suggesting that the police brought in this law themselves.....


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Whether or nay, they sure are loving it. Power hungry pot bellies. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
NickR
18 April 2020 14:11:35


 


Regardless of what happened you cannot have an officer of the law saying he would make up a reason for an arrest and then going on to say who would they believe.


If you are unable to see that then you are looking through rose coloured glasses. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


👍


Anyone convicted with the involvement of evidence from this officer would now have an excellent case for an appeal.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Chidog
18 April 2020 14:11:50

Greece may have kept the virus out for now but managing to release the lockdown and reintroduce any tourism (18% of GDP) whilst not having cases reintroduced is a circle they will struggle to square. No one is going to self quarantine for two weeks before a package holiday. Only way to stop these kind of issues for many countries seems to be lock down until vaccine. Either economic meltdown or social meltdown

xioni2
18 April 2020 14:14:58


 But what I found staggeringly poor was the absence of any acknowledgment of the need to try to keep cases within the capabilities of each nation's healthcare systems. Frankly, failing to acknowledge that basic parameter was an instant 'fail'.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I watched the interview and think your criticism is valid. I could understand the hybrid approach taken in Sweden, they banned mass events very early, they closed Universities and secondary schools and they apply moderate physical distancing (no serving at the bar, no queuing etc.), but without closing all shops and restaurants. Their rationale is that this will be an easier strategy to maintain longer term until the possible vaccine arrives, but without overwhelming their healthcare system. The last point is critical though, Sweden has an excellent healthcare system, many other countries don't.


I was also not happy with the certainty he expressed on various points (high percentage of infections, antibodies tests etc.).


 


 

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