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Brian Gaze
21 April 2020 05:14:18

Good piece in the FT about the ventilator challenge


Muddled thinking punctures plan for British ventilator


Non-specialist manufacturers sent off to design new products that clinicians and regulators say were unsuitable for Covid patients


...
“Pretty much all the basic new designs are not going to get through the Covid approval process. The government spin is the ‘clinical need’ changed, but the reality is that it was always misguided to think you could develop and create these ventilators,” the person said. “Starting the process in this way was unwise. It has gradually become more sensible.”
 
https://www.ft.com/content/5f393d77-8e5b-4a85-b647-416efbc575ec
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
21 April 2020 07:10:18

Our local rag reports plans are afoot to create a single mass-testing site for Kent.

Considering we're already topping the county league tables (and have been for days), I do wonder what's taken them so long! I also suspect that if by some miracle they get it up and running before the lockdown is eased, there will be far, far more cases around than they've found so far.

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/plans-for-mass-coronavirus-testing-site-in-kent-225951/


 


Leysdown, north Kent
JHutch
21 April 2020 07:25:14

Parliament is back today, with some people zooming in. Any news on Tony Lloyd MP? He was admitted to hospital with coronavirus over two weeks ago and there has been no word since.

speckledjim
21 April 2020 07:31:46
Interesting piece on Newsnight last night talking about the peak of deaths being on the 8th April for the UK, however, for London it was the 4th April. The point the Oxford Uni bloke was making was that the peak for infections in London was prior to lockdown so the initial guidance on social distancing etc was working. If true then assuming we can follow those guidelines as best we can e.g working from home then when it comes to easing the lockdown there is a good chance of avoiding a ‘big’ 2nd wave.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gooner
21 April 2020 07:49:50

Interesting piece on Newsnight last night talking about the peak of deaths being on the 8th April for the UK, however, for London it was the 4th April. The point the Oxford Uni bloke was making was that the peak for infections in London was prior to lockdown so the initial guidance on social distancing etc was working. If true then assuming we can follow those guidelines as best we can e.g working from home then when it comes to easing the lockdown there is a good chance of avoiding a ‘big’ 2nd wave.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


And that's a very good point , and I think that's the concern of the Government . If relaxed to much everyone will be out and all is forgotten on distancing etc .


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JHutch
21 April 2020 07:57:53

Interesting piece on Newsnight last night talking about the peak of deaths being on the 8th April for the UK, however, for London it was the 4th April. The point the Oxford Uni bloke was making was that the peak for infections in London was prior to lockdown so the initial guidance on social distancing etc was working. If true then assuming we can follow those guidelines as best we can e.g working from home then when it comes to easing the lockdown there is a good chance of avoiding a ‘big’ 2nd wave.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Data in the link below shows a peak on 4th april, although the neighbouring days were lower and there was another peak on 8th april. This may mean that the peak for infections was close to the rest of the country really and so around the time of lockdown. (Is there any evidence of the average time lag between infection and death?)


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-2th-april/


Point does remain though that the behaviour of a lot of people changed before lockdown, i think the slides shown at the daily briefings show that use of the underground dropped quite quickly. For all the talk of people in London ignoring the warnings a lot of people i know were not going out drinking. I remember going for a walk round when Londoners were supposedly all flouting the guidance and most bars were almost empty. As lockdown is (hopefully) eased i think people will be more cautious than they were pre-lockdown so hopefully if we really can drive the number of cases down now then the reduced rate of transmission and better ability of the authorities to trace contacts will hopefully mean the unfortunate background number of deaths may be relatively low.

The Beast from the East
21 April 2020 08:09:04


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
21 April 2020 08:13:00


 


Data in the link below shows a peak on 4th april, although the neighbouring days were lower and there was another peak on 8th april. This may mean that the peak for infections was close to the rest of the country really and so around the time of lockdown. (Is there any evidence of the average time lag between infection and death?)


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-2th-april/


Point does remain though that the behaviour of a lot of people changed before lockdown, i think the slides shown at the daily briefings show that use of the underground dropped quite quickly. For all the talk of people in London ignoring the warnings a lot of people i know were not going out drinking. I remember going for a walk round when Londoners were supposedly all flouting the guidance and most bars were almost empty. As lockdown is (hopefully) eased i think people will be more cautious than they were pre-lockdown so hopefully the virus will not spread further and if we really can drive the number of cases down now then the reduced rate of transmission and better ability of the authorities to trace contacts will hopefully mean the unfortunate background number of deaths may be relatively low.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Agree, unlikely to be a meaningful "second wave" and those wanting to extend the lockdown are being over cautious. 


With Spanish flu, the second wave was worse but medical care was of course very limited back then and there was no social distancing


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Phil G
21 April 2020 08:13:09

Air Purifiers?
I woke thinking that in particular NHS 30 year olds should not be dying of the virus unless its the amount of exposure and hits they are getting from the infected patients.
It says on a general website about purifiers that there is no evidence they will stop the virus, but have they been tested? On a Dyson model it says "The fully-sealed 360 filter system combines an activated carbon filter to remove gases, and a glass HEPA filter that captures 99.95% of microscopic allergens and pollutants.2 Using Air Multiplier™ technology, the machine projects over 290 liters of smooth, purified air per second for whole-room purification"


I was wondering if a number of purifiers were set up in wards where there were a lot of people and more chance of getting, whether they would go someway in at least taking some of the virus out of the air.




Gavin D
21 April 2020 08:17:53

Up to 510 healthy volunteers between 18 and 55 will be used in a trial to try and find a Covid-19 vaccine.


The trail is taking place in Oxford, London & Southampton with around 187 recruited in Southampton. 3 further sites are likely to be added in the weeks ahead with trials hoped to be completed by late summer.


The study its self will last 6-months those who see it through to the end will receive £235.


Places are still available for those living Southampton at the University of Southampton and for those living in the Greater London Area at the Imperial College London.


https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/volunteer

The Beast from the East
21 April 2020 08:27:04


Up to 510 healthy volunteers between 18 and 55 will be used in a trial to try and find a Covid-19 vaccine.


The trail is taking place in Oxford, London & Southampton with around 187 recruited in Southampton. 3 further sites are likely to be added in the weeks ahead with trials hoped to be completed by late summer.


The study its self will last 6-months those who see it through to the end will receive £235.


Places are still available for those living Southampton at the University of Southampton and for those living in the Greater London Area at the Imperial College London.


https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/volunteer


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


But ironically we need some virus spread in the community to see if the vaccine works. These volunteers need to get it. In other countries I imagine they will just infect them deliberately like monkeys


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gavin D
21 April 2020 08:30:23
Germany has cancelled Oktoberfest 2020 which was due to run in Munich from September 19th to October 4th
The Beast from the East
21 April 2020 08:31:22


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
21 April 2020 08:32:35

Germany has cancelled Oktoberfest 2020 which was due to run in Munich from September 19th to October 4th

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gooner
21 April 2020 08:35:27


Up to 510 healthy volunteers between 18 and 55 will be used in a trial to try and find a Covid-19 vaccine.


The trail is taking place in Oxford, London & Southampton with around 187 recruited in Southampton. 3 further sites are likely to be added in the weeks ahead with trials hoped to be completed by late summer.


The study its self will last 6-months those who see it through to the end will receive £235.


Places are still available for those living Southampton at the University of Southampton and for those living in the Greater London Area at the Imperial College London.


https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/volunteer


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Just tried to volunteer for the Oxford one but its full up 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Darren S
21 April 2020 08:44:46


Our local rag reports plans are afoot to create a single mass-testing site for Kent.

Considering we're already topping the county league tables (and have been for days), I do wonder what's taken them so long! I also suspect that if by some miracle they get it up and running before the lockdown is eased, there will be far, far more cases around than they've found so far.

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/plans-for-mass-coronavirus-testing-site-in-kent-225951/


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Kent is only "topping the league tables" because it is one of the most populous local authority areas. When sorted by cases per head of population, Kent is actually in 83rd place out of 149 in England, so comfortably in the less infected half of the country.


(See table a little way down this page) 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
xioni2
21 April 2020 08:45:10

Germany has cancelled Oktoberfest 2020 which was due to run in Munich from September 19th to October 4th

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I doubt mass events will be allowed before the potential vaccine. 

NickR
21 April 2020 08:48:40
Excellent news on the vaccine front. Read the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283886417174528?s=19 
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
JHutch
21 April 2020 08:49:17


 


Agree, unlikely to be a meaningful "second wave" and those wanting to extend the lockdown are being over cautious. 


With Spanish flu, the second wave was worse but medical care was of course very limited back then and there was no social distancing


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Unlikely is being a tad brave in such an uncertain situation


Re: the lockdown, i guess the next decision day is in two weeks time and we will have to see how things lie then. It would seem there will be some relaxing of the lockdown but we will have to see how much.

Phil G
21 April 2020 08:57:31
Listening to an interview on V Derbyshire, a guy said all the deaths (incl. care homes) in the country in the week up to Good Friday was 18k of which Covid was 6k.
I suppose that stacks up with the 800-900 dying each day. Was a bit surprised at the non covid deaths being 12k but with the measure on average 1,500 die each day before Covid that's about right.
If last week was the height of deaths in this wave, a third of deaths were due to Covid.
xioni2
21 April 2020 08:58:11


Thanks, very interesting and it re-enforces my view that mass vaccination will probably start by the end of the year and we should achieve herd immunity by next summer.


 

Saint Snow
21 April 2020 09:01:10




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Welcome to 1984.


Where the government uses taxpayer money to spread propaganda lies to the electorate. 


And Tory supporters - whose reaction we can guess if it were Labour politicians doing the same - just shrug their shoulders. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JHutch
21 April 2020 09:02:52

Office for National Statistics report for the week to 10th April is out now


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020


Main points




  • The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.




  • Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14.




  • In London, over half (53.2%) of deaths registered in Week 15 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 37.0% of deaths registered in this region.




  • Total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled by 2,456 deaths (99.4% increase); whilst we have seen a 72.4% increase (3,603 deaths) in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in private homes (1,392 deaths).




  • Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 15, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.




  • Week 15 included the Good Friday bank holiday; the five-year average does show a decrease in registrations over the Easter holiday; however, the Coronavirus Act 2020 allowed registry offices to remain open over Easter, which may have reduced any drop in registrations for Week 15 2020.



xioni2
21 April 2020 09:11:06

I haven't watched any of the briefings for weeks now as I find them mostly poor and uninformative, but I read that one of the scientific advisors said on Sunday that our containment effort was successful and that the preparation of Britain was exemplar.


The arrogance is breathtaking and insulting to the victims, which include now around 100 frontline stuff.


 

Saint Snow
21 April 2020 09:12:26


 


Kent is only "topping the league tables" because it is one of the most populous local authority areas. When sorted by cases per head of population, Kent is actually in 83rd place out of 149 in England, so comfortably in the less infected half of the country.


(See table a little way down this page) 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


All 5 Merseyside LA's, plus the neighbouring Halton & Warrington LA's, are in the highest 41 cases per 100k in the country.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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