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SJV
22 April 2020 18:16:11


Another rumour today I heard was when school does reopen a real possibility it will be a gradual thing probability early years to age 7 first.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


That won't solve any of the issues previously discussed with regards to issues with social distancing in schools. Yes you could spread them out across the school but you'll still have 100s of young children to manage who don't really understand the importance of social distancing. It's a job and a half even having 10-20 kids in, I can tell you!


You've also got the added academic issue then of some children getting a full primary education at school and others not (KS2).


Personally I think the only time schools should re-open is when all the children can attend and social distancing isn't required.

Quantum
22 April 2020 18:18:22

One thing that occured to me is that the government may be doing a 'organic' relaxation of the lockdown. By which I mean continuing the lockdown formally while easing up on enforcement may be enough to keep R0 below 1.


In other words I am being forced to pay for the COVID scroungers.


Obviously its not fair but if this strategy works then fine.


But COVID scroungers will forever have my contempt. F*ck them.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
SJV
22 April 2020 18:19:28


 


It is a suprise, obviously obesity is a risk factor in alot of things. But not so much in viral pnemonia, let alone to the degree that COVID seems to like obese people. The fact that this particular virus is higher risk in fat people is something quite unique to it.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think obesity must have a stronger link to the 'underlying conditions + Covid-19 deaths' rather than those who have succumbed from a healthy start. As you say obesity is a risk factor to a lot of other conditions; conditions that no doubt contribute to a less effective initial immune response to Covid-19.

Quantum
22 April 2020 18:22:36


 


I think obesity must have a stronger link to the 'underlying conditions + Covid-19 deaths' rather than those who have succumbed from a healthy start. As you say obesity is a risk factor to a lot of other conditions; conditions that no doubt contribute to a less effective initial immune response to Covid-19.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Yes but its more than that. Compare Obesity with smoking as a risk factor. At the very least the former seems to be a bigger risk factor than the later (and a few people are going alot further than that wrg to smoking). That is very unusual. Smoking is a much bigger risk factor, in general, than obesity. The fact obesity is convincingly ahead for COVID-19 is not normal at all.


I suppose the good thing about this is that it does give people some semblance of control. If you want to reduce your risk of dying from COVID and you are overweight (most people are) then losing the weight in a sensible controlled manner might be the best way to boost your immune system in relation to this.


Hell, perhaps that's what this exercise drive is all about.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
22 April 2020 18:28:33

Thanks I was about to eat a piece of chocolate  cake


quote=Quantum;1208051]


 


Yes but its more than that. Compare Obesity with smoking as a risk factor. At the very least the former seems to be a bigger risk factor than the later (and a few people are going alot further than that wrg to smoking). That is very unusual. Smoking is a much bigger risk factor, in general, than obesity. The fact obesity is convincingly ahead for COVID-19 is not normal at all.


I suppose the good thing about this is that it does give people some semblance of control. If you want to reduce your risk of dying from COVID and you are overweight (most people are) then losing the weight in a sensible controlled manner might be the best way to boost your immune system in relation to this.


Hell, perhaps that's what this exercise drive is all about.


 


Tim A
22 April 2020 18:33:09


I haven't read most of this thread, but flusurvey has done the first community testing in the UK. They tested ~1000 people and they found ~2% were infected and 20% of them were asymptomatic. This is yet another survey which points to a very low percentage of the population being infected (same in Austria and Iceland).


 


 Almost one thousand participants sent swabs back, and approximately 2% were positive. Among those people who tested positive, 20% did not have any symptoms. Cough and fever were the most commonly reported symptoms among those positive for coronavirus. However the vast majority of people who reported cough, fever and loss of smell tested negative.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


That could be a big underestimate though if some of the following are to be believed:


Swab test is only seen as reliable up to day 5 after the development of symptoms (I posted a link to a letter sent to NHS staff earlier to this effect).  So it will only capture those in early stage of illness.  


Doctor at the CQC stated: 'It's crucial that those undertaking the testing are appropriately trained and competent. Where a test is incorrectly undertaken there is a greater risk that it will produce a false negative result.'   In this study people are self-swabbing. Are they getting the swab to correct area?


 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Polar Low
22 April 2020 18:41:24

According to NHS very high risk group is 



  • have had an organ transplant

  • are having chemotherapy or antibody treatment for cancer, including immunotherapy

  • are having an intense course of radiotherapy (radical radiotherapy) for lung cancer

  • are having targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system (such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors)

  • have blood or bone marrow cancer (such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma)

  • have had a bone marrow or stem cell transplant in the past 6 months, or are still taking immunosuppressant medicine

  • have been told by a doctor that you have a severe lung condition (such as cystic fibrosis, severe asthma or severe COPD)

  • have a condition that means you have a very high risk of getting infections (such as SCID or sickle cell)

  • are taking medicine that makes you much more likely to get infections (such as high doses of steroids)

  • have a serious heart condition and you're pregnant
    and next 

  • considered high risk but less than above



    • are 70 or older

    • are pregnant

    • have a learning disability

    • have a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)

    • have heart disease (such as heart failure)

    • have high blood pressure (hypertension)

    • have diabetes

    • have chronic kidney disease

    • have liver disease (such as hepatitis)

    • have a condition affecting your brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis, or cerebral palsy)

    • have a problem with your spleen or have had your spleen removed 

    • have a condition that means you have a high risk of getting infections (such as HIV, lupus or scleroderma)

    • are taking medicine that can affect your immune system (such as low doses of steroids)

    • are very obese (a BMI of 40 or above)



Quantum
22 April 2020 18:47:10

I would suggest NHS are not reporting the most up to date lit. That's no bad thing as everything they report is more likely to be robust and trustworthy, but it sacrifices being ahead of the curve so to speak.


From what I've read Obesity is a very significant risk factor, and suprisingly so i.e beyond the generic risk you would expect it to confer to most diseases. Smoking may be the opposite and not pose as big a risk as expected (some people are even suggesting a lower than unity risk ratio from smoking, though these results should be treated with extreme caution).


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
22 April 2020 18:47:59


 


Not many agree with me at the best of times Fairweather  but yes, there does seem to be curious double standards being applied when it comes to those wearing a uniform. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Do shop workers wear a uniform?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
22 April 2020 18:50:58


I would suggest NHS are not reporting the most up to date lit. That's no bad thing as everything they report is more likely to be robust and trustworthy, but it sacrifices being ahead of the curve so to speak.


From what I've read Obesity is a very significant risk factor, and suprisingly so i.e beyond the generic risk you would expect it to confer to most diseases. Smoking may be the opposite and not pose as big a risk as expected (some people are even suggesting a lower than unity risk ratio from smoking, though these results should be treated with extreme caution).


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The problem is all I want to do is eat cake and drink wine at the moment. Because of the stress. I won’t be alone.


I’m not overweight but let’s just say I have a slight “quarantine stomach” developing if that’s a thing. :D 


Definitely important to stay as healthy as possible. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Polar Low
22 April 2020 18:52:52

what the table does not show is the numbers in each group so your post is extremely valid as many people have a bmi>40
also it does not show a mixture of groups ie heart conditions with bmi>40



I would suggest NHS are not reporting the most up to date lit. That's no bad thing as everything they report is more likely to be robust and trustworthy, but it sacrifices being ahead of the curve so to speak.


From what I've read Obesity is a very significant risk factor, and suprisingly so i.e beyond the generic risk you would expect it to confer to most diseases. Smoking may be the opposite and not pose as big a risk as expected (some people are even suggesting a lower than unity risk ratio from smoking, though these results should be treated with extreme caution).


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Gandalf The White
22 April 2020 19:04:07


 


It is a suprise, obviously obesity is a risk factor in alot of things. But not so much in viral pnemonia, let alone to the degree that COVID seems to like obese people. The fact that this particular virus is higher risk in fat people is something quite unique to it.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Obesity damages the heart and blood vessels; the cardiovascular system is under more pressure and therefore any additional stress caused by Covid-19 is going to bring an increased risk of death.  If the heart isn't performing properly that means any problems with the lungs getting sufficient oxygen into the blood are going to be exacerbated.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
22 April 2020 19:14:21

Maybe class 3 obesity >40 but don’t forget there are some obese people who are very healthy and also very fit


 



 


Obesity damages the heart and blood vessels; the cardiovascular system is under more pressure and therefore any additional stress caused by Covid-19 is going to bring an increased risk of death.  If the heart isn't performing properly that means any problems with the lungs getting sufficient oxygen into the blood are going to be exacerbated.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Saint Snow
22 April 2020 19:17:09


With all due respect, this crap is boring.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Well it should be right up your street, then.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
22 April 2020 19:19:04


 


As long as you don't point out that Jesus was probably brown skinned.


I made that mistake once at a dinner party when I was living in Iowa


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


And Jewish.


And a pinko commie.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
22 April 2020 19:19:25


Maybe class 3 obesity >40 but don’t forget there are some obese people who are very healthy and also very fit


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Not really. That's a bit of a myth. Metabolic health in obese people is rare and when it does occur its transient. The one exception to this rule is when it is paired with very intense constant exercise; sumo wreslers are that exception though its worth noting that the metabolic health deteroriates extremely rapidly as soon as you remove the exercise so sumo wrestlers tend to drop dead when they retire.


So no its not really possible to be obese and healthy at the same time.


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
speckledjim
22 April 2020 19:27:24
Large scale gatherings ban has been extended in Germany until October 24th. It’s going to be a long time until we see full football stadiums anywhere in Europe.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Justin W
22 April 2020 19:28:09


 


With all due respect, this crap is boring.


It must be so easy to have all the answers, the tories are evil; without them everything would be utopian.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


There is no argument that the Johnson administration’s obsession with the Brexit jizzfest meant that it was completely blind sided by CV19. No argument. Whatever it is trying to do now, this Government’s insouciance between late Jan and March 23 has ended up costing thousands and thousands of lives.


This is not a political point. It is a self-evident fact and when there is the inevitable public inquiry, will be plain as day


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Polar Low
22 April 2020 19:28:53

People tend to assume that individuals who are thin are healthy, while people with obesity are not. But as with everything, the truth is always a bit more complicated.


So the answer to the question is essentially yes, people with obesity can still be healthy


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health-you-asked/can-you-be-obese-still-be-healthy


 




 


Not really. That's a bit of a myth. Metabolic health in obese people is rare and when it does occur its transient. The one exception to this rule is when it is paired with very intense constant exercise; sumo wreslers are that exception though its worth noting that the metabolic health deteroriates extremely rapidly as soon as you remove the exercise so sumo wrestlers tend to drop dead when they retire.


So no its not really possible to be obese and healthy at the same time.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Gandalf The White
22 April 2020 19:30:38


Maybe class 3 obesity >40 but don’t forget there are some obese people who are very healthy and also very fit


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


I haven't seen the statistics but I would imagine they're in a minority and far outweighed by those that develop serious health problems. If that wasn't the reality it wouldn't be seen as a major public health issue and there wouldn't be a drive to reduce it.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
22 April 2020 19:32:16


People tend to assume that individuals who are thin are healthy, while people with obesity are not. But as with everything, the truth is always a bit more complicated.


So the answer to the question is essentially yes, people with obesity can still be healthy


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health-you-asked/can-you-be-obese-still-be-healthy


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


No you really can't.


I've read that study. First 15% of obese people being metabolically healthy is hardly a ringing endorsement. However subsequent studies have shown that metabolic health in obese people is nearly always transient. I.e if you measure it again 5 years later it will almost always have gone. If you pair obesity with intense and constant exercise you might be able to maintain a metastable metabolic health but if you want sustainable long term health that doesn't rely on near constant levels of extreme exercise then avoid obesity completely.


 


In any case why would you? Pretty much all exercise is easier and more enjoyable if you arn't obese! You have to do far more to be healthy while obese than you have to do while not obese, and its harder and you won't be as good at it!


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
22 April 2020 19:32:30


People tend to assume that individuals who are thin are healthy, while people with obesity are not. But as with everything, the truth is always a bit more complicated.


So the answer to the question is essentially yes, people with obesity can still be healthy


https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/health-you-asked/can-you-be-obese-still-be-healthy


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Isn't it a bell curve, albeit a distorted one?  Seriously underweight or overweight both bring health issues.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
22 April 2020 19:34:57


 


Isn't it a bell curve, albeit a distorted one?  Seriously underweight or overweight both bring health issues.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I'm careful not to talk about people that are merely overweight because the picture becomes alot more complicated. Overweight people can be metabolically healthy.


But obese people can't.


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bugglesgate
22 April 2020 19:40:09


 


 


And Jewish.


And a pinko commie.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Yer, but his  dad was a  white dude with a  flowing beard.


He was called  Harold  "Our father who art in heaven,  Harold be  thy name"


 



 


....I will, naturally, be getting my coat 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Polar Low
22 April 2020 19:40:11

Yes you can what report do you believe surly the higher the bmi the greater the risk I’m merely making a point many over weight adults can even run further than you fitter  than you Healthy than me and probably live longer than me.


 


Yes, you can be overweight and healthy, according to the National Institutes of Health's 1998 report, Clinical Guidelines on the Identification, Evaluation and Treatment of Overweight and Obesity in Adults.


ps Peter I did use the words Class 3 in my post 


 


 



 


 


 


No you really can't.


I've read that study. First 15% of obese people being metabolically healthy is hardly a ringing endorsement. However subsequent studies have shown that metabolic health in obese people is nearly always transient. I.e if you measure it again 5 years later it will almost always have gone. If you pair obesity with intense and constant exercise you might be able to maintain a metastable metabolic health but if you want sustainable long term health that doesn't rely on near constant levels of extreme exercise then avoid obesity completely.


 


In any case why would you? Pretty much all exercise is easier and more enjoyable if you arn't obese! You have to do far more to be healthy while obese than you have to do while not obese, and its harder and you won't be as good at it!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

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