quote=Quantum;1207952]
I think we are seeing an exponential decline which does suggest an R0 below 1, but how far below? Its very difficult to tell. And the fact my JFF model is failing at the moment suggests that R0 is no longer going down. Still we will know when it goes above 1. Its quite difficult to tell the difference between a soft and harder exponential decline but very easy to tell the difference between exponential decline and exponential growth.
If R0 has stopped declining and is now growing I will factor that into my model and see if it fits the data. I imagine the upshot would be a continuation of the decline for a bit and then suddenly an explosion.
Somebody posted something earlier this week from Germany suggesting that the R0 there had been down to 0.7 but that they thought that it had since increased to 0.9. I think that there has been some slight relaxation of the official measures in recent days. Garden centres here, for example, are now open for collections and deliveries. The Police have been far less in evidence this week. However, IF the R0 is worsening the question is what is doing it? Is it the likes of garden centres opening? Or is it that the public at large is relaxing and visiting friends etc?
You said earlier that the Police ought to crack down on unnecessary journeys. However, I'm not sure that they can really do that. After all, what's to stop me telling the Police that I'm going to the supermarket for my weekly shop when I'm really calling round to have a beer in a friend's house? Much of the lockdown depends on people obeying the rules.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL