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Gavin D
22 April 2020 13:59:32
Confirmed rate for positive tests is 32.92%
Quantum
22 April 2020 13:59:47


 


Agreed. Infections have remained above 4k for 22 days in a row. While they are not surging and remain flat. They are flat at a high number.


Our lockdown hasn’t been adhered to strongly enough I fear.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I think we are seeing an exponential decline which does suggest an R0 below 1, but how far below? Its very difficult to tell. And the fact my JFF model is failing at the moment suggests that R0 is no longer going down. Still we will know when it goes above 1. Its quite difficult to tell the difference between a soft and harder exponential decline but very easy to tell the difference between exponential decline and exponential growth.


If R0 has stopped declining and is now growing I will factor that into my model and see if it fits the data. I imagine the upshot would be a continuation of the decline for a bit and then suddenly an explosion.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:03:01


 


Whilst I am not an expert on virus evolution, Justin, there is a contrary view you may also have considered. In explaining this I do not want to suggest any intention or purpose to the virus, only the general rules which bear on random mutations and overall change of any living thing. A "good" pathogen does not kill off its host. The interplay of developing host immunity and pathogen change is what allows both to co-evolve and survive. A really virulent form of the pathogen would be a kamikaze, wiping out the host and dying with it. 


I'd be interested to be reminded of past human pandemics which have not declined in virulence with time. [Even if the damage caused at the peak was terrible.] Suggestions please.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I suppose smallpox and malaria and dengue. HIV as well but that is much harder to catch


Smallpox has of course been eradicated because it didn't mutate and the vaccine worked well. Still no vaccine for the others


Prof Sarah says her vaccine worked on monkeys and so should work in the human trials. I have no idea if Covid19 can adapt to counter this synthetic vaccine


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Tim A
22 April 2020 14:06:15


 


 


Our lockdown hasn’t been adhered to strongly enough I fear.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The most vulnerable cannot be locked down though: Care homes, people receiving community care, those in/out of hospital plus all the key workers etc.  Think these factors will be responsible for high numbers for a while to come rather than a few (generally fit and healthy) idiots disobeying the lockdown.


 


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Northern Sky
22 April 2020 14:07:41


 


I thought this had been debunked by Nick? There are no meaningful mutations so far


What is emerging is that those affected badly are not quite the same again, with damage possibly permanent


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The virologist on the radio said it was mutating every couple of weeks, which sounds a lot but in the context of virus mutation it's actually slow and stable. In contrast normal flu mutates every time it infects someone, meaning the virus you catch is different to the one you pass on to someone else. 


As I said earlier this is good news in terms of a vaccine and the virologist didn't sound overly concerned that it would mutate into a more deadly form. As ever only time will tell but I'm not sure it's worth worrying over what might happen when there's already plenty to worry about as it stands. 

The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:13:24


 


F*ck f*ck f*ck. Don't these idiots realize that this lockdown will be for NOTHING if we abandon it now.


In fact it will be worse than nothing because we take the economic hit and the virus.


if this is happening then we need to double down on the lockdown and make it even more restrictive. And people who make unnecessary journeys should be punished even more harshly.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


How will you catch them? Your lot have cut police numbers by 21,000


Unless you deploy the Army, which opens up a whole heap of new issues, you cant enforce it like they have in other parts of Europe.


We don't have the numbers 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Lionel Hutz
22 April 2020 14:14:48

quote=Quantum;1207952]


 


I think we are seeing an exponential decline which does suggest an R0 below 1, but how far below? Its very difficult to tell. And the fact my JFF model is failing at the moment suggests that R0 is no longer going down. Still we will know when it goes above 1. Its quite difficult to tell the difference between a soft and harder exponential decline but very easy to tell the difference between exponential decline and exponential growth.


If R0 has stopped declining and is now growing I will factor that into my model and see if it fits the data. I imagine the upshot would be a continuation of the decline for a bit and then suddenly an explosion.


 



Somebody posted something earlier this week from Germany suggesting that the R0 there had been down to 0.7 but that they thought that it had since increased to 0.9. I think that there has been some slight relaxation of the official measures in recent days. Garden centres here, for example, are now open for collections and deliveries. The Police have been far less in evidence this week. However, IF the R0 is worsening the question is what is doing it? Is it the likes of garden centres opening? Or is it that the public at large is relaxing and visiting friends etc?


You said earlier that the Police ought to crack down on unnecessary journeys. However, I'm not sure that they can really do that. After all, what's to stop me telling the Police that I'm going to the supermarket for my weekly shop when I'm really calling round to have a beer in a friend's house? Much of the lockdown depends on people obeying the rules.  

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:19:16


 


The most vulnerable cannot be locked down though: Care homes, people receiving community care, those in/out of hospital plus all the key workers etc.  Think these factors will be responsible for high numbers for a while to come rather than a few (generally fit and healthy) idiots disobeying the lockdown.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


I mentioned this yesterday, but about 40% of the workforce is still going out to work - mostly public sector and key workers, but also those in food distribution and retail


We are still allowing unlimited online shopping and food takeaway deliveries, which are non-essential.  The production and distribution process will lead to virus spread.


Our loose lockdown will lead to a steady infection rate, but HMG seems happy with that - the NHS can cope. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:23:12


 


You said earlier that the Police ought to crack down on unnecessary journeys. However, I'm not sure that they can really do that. After all, what's to stop me telling the Police that I'm going to the supermarket for my weekly shop when I'm really calling round to have a beer in a friend's house? Much of the lockdown depends on people obeying the rules.  


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


In France you have to print out a document every time  you go out. In Italy and Spain there are regular police and paramilitaries on every street corner stopping everyone and checking what they are doing


And they use drones!


We are very lucky that Boris is so lax!


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
22 April 2020 14:26:00


If people are coming out now then the government was right in that people are 'tiring' and going in hard too early would have been pointless.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Not just in this country - from the BBC:


"There has been a fourth consecutive night of unrest in the Paris suburb of Villeneuve-la-Garenne. Social tensions have risen further under strict lockdown rules"

New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:26:34


 


The civil servant that suggested this was political actually had to retract his statement he made at a commitie. It might be a bit strong to suggest he lied at the commitee but he did not tell it as it actually was. And the problem is the retraction doesn't write inches like 'cabinet doesn't join due to political motives'.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


He retracted his statement because Cummings put him in a thumb screw and he wanted to keep his job


He told the truth the first time


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
22 April 2020 14:30:05


 


Not just in this country - from the BBC:


"There has been a fourth consecutive night of unrest in the Paris suburb of Villeneuve-la-Garenne. Social tensions have risen further under strict lockdown rules"


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


You cant compare the French lock down to ours. Theirs was far stricter.  

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
The Beast from the East
22 April 2020 14:33:51

God will protect us, just like he protected the Pangolins


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Retron
22 April 2020 14:35:49

The Tele has this useful graph - click to enlarge. It backs up what the Chinese found, the virus is an efficient killer of the old.


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
22 April 2020 14:37:09

Latest data from EU/EEA states & UK. Ordered by highest to lowest mortality rate per 100,000 of entire population:


 





































































































































































































EU/EEA and the UKCasesDeathsMortality % per 100000
Belgium4095659980.05
Spain204178212820.05
Italy183957246480.04
France117324207960.03
United_Kingdom129044173370.03
Netherlands3413439160.02
Sweden1532217650.02
Ireland160407300.02
Luxembourg3618780.01
Portugal213797620.01
Denmark76953700.01
Germany14569448790.01
Austria148334630.01
Slovenia1340770.00
Estonia1552430.00
Norway71661630.00
Iceland1778100.00
Liechtenstein8210.00
Finland40141410.00
Romania92424830.00
Hungary21682250.00
Czechia70412010.00
Cyprus784170.00
Lithuania1370380.00
Croatia1908480.00
Greece24011210.00
Poland98564010.00
Bulgaria975450.00
Malta44330.00
Latvia74890.00
Slovakia1199140.00

I keep hearing that Sweden is doing terribly, and in its own right, it is, but comparatively speaking it is doing much better than pretty much all of the big players in western Europe. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gavin D
22 April 2020 15:00:16
Pillar 1 - 3,776

Pillar 2 - 675



Total - 4,451
Roger Parsons
22 April 2020 15:01:41


I suppose smallpox and malaria and dengue. HIV as well but that is much harder to catch


Smallpox has of course been eradicated because it didn't mutate and the vaccine worked well. Still no vaccine for the others


Prof Sarah says her vaccine worked on monkeys and so should work in the human trials. I have no idea if Covid19 can adapt to counter this synthetic vaccine


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Thanks Beast. Malaria, though not a virus, nicely illustrates some of my concerns. Since the early days of quinine, various new treatments have emerged and some have become obsolete as the parasite became immune to them. To make the most of our defences we attacked on several fronts - the epidemiological triad of host, agent and environment, plus the vector, the mosquito. The environmental action focused on removing pools and water bodies where the mosquito might breed, reducing the possibility of vector to host transmission. Pesticicides were used to kill adult mosquitoes to directly remove the vector. Barriers to the vector were added and improved, mosquito nets, fly-screened doors and windows, plus use of domestic pesticides and repellents. Humans took antimalarials that would kill the parasite. People in malarial areas live daily with such measures.


The position today is "There is currently no commercially available malaria vaccine. Over 20 other vaccine constructs are currently being evaluated in clinical trials or are in advanced preclinical development." "[WHO] "The development of resistance to drugs poses one of the greatest threats to malaria control and results in increased malaria morbidity and mortality. Resistance to currently available antimalarial drugs has been confirmed in only two of the four human malaria parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax." [CDC]


I have never had Dengue - but once lived in a Dengue area. My Dr said - "It is one of my favourite diseases - Breakbone Fever! It will not kill you but you will wish it did. You will recover." The main method of control is to prevent transmission by measures against the vector, the mosquito. As you say - we did manage to eradicate Smallpox through vaccination and public health measures. It's an encouraging story most folks will know.


I'm trying to be optimistic - but the best I can manage is caution. Environmental and behavioral measures are important weapons, but WRT vaccines and therapies I am not going to do optimism yet.


Roger


 


 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Quantum
22 April 2020 15:07:57


 


How will you catch them? Your lot have cut police numbers by 21,000


Unless you deploy the Army, which opens up a whole heap of new issues, you cant enforce it like they have in other parts of Europe.


We don't have the numbers 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Its not about the numbers, its about the police messing about worrying about gender pronouns and 'hate crime'. And if the numbers really are a problem just bring the army in.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
22 April 2020 15:09:31


 


He retracted his statement because Cummings put him in a thumb screw and he wanted to keep his job


He told the truth the first time


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You do realize that the tory base is the most affected by this virus right? If they are truly as sinister as you think (they arn't) then they would want to perform well because the deaths are mostly going to be tory voting.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
22 April 2020 15:11:55

 


 



Somebody posted something earlier this week from Germany suggesting that the R0 there had been down to 0.7 but that they thought that it had since increased to 0.9. I think that there has been some slight relaxation of the official measures in recent days. Garden centres here, for example, are now open for collections and deliveries. The Police have been far less in evidence this week. However, IF the R0 is worsening the question is what is doing it? Is it the likes of garden centres opening? Or is it that the public at large is relaxing and visiting friends etc?


You said earlier that the Police ought to crack down on unnecessary journeys. However, I'm not sure that they can really do that. After all, what's to stop me telling the Police that I'm going to the supermarket for my weekly shop when I'm really calling round to have a beer in a friend's house? Much of the lockdown depends on people obeying the rules.  



Mass survailance through phone data. Get some data analysists in analyse people's movement patterns and arrest anyone fulfilling some basic criteria. Adapt the algorithm to increase rate of sucess.


And yes this will truly screw with our civil liberties afterwards. But if people had just behaved none of this would need to happen.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
22 April 2020 15:16:17


If people are coming out now then the government was right in that people are 'tiring' and going in hard too early would have been pointless.


People need to get their tuliptogether and f*cking control themselves. If they don't then they can only blame themselves for the consequences.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


TBH after the first few days there hasn't been much attempt to enforce the lockdown.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
westv
22 April 2020 15:16:39


 


 


Mass survailance through phone data. Get some data analysists in analyse people's movement patterns and arrest anyone fulfilling some basic criteria. Adapt the algorithm to increase rate of sucess.


And yes this will truly screw with our civil liberties afterwards. But if people had just behaved none of this would need to happen.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Just don't bother carrying your phone then? Can a phone be tracked if it isn't being used?

At least it will be mild!
Chunky Pea
22 April 2020 15:21:20


 


You said earlier that the Police ought to crack down on unnecessary journeys. However, I'm not sure that they can really do that. After all, what's to stop me telling the Police that I'm going to the supermarket for my weekly shop when I'm really calling round to have a beer in a friend's house? Much of the lockdown depends on people obeying the rules. 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


Again I have to ask, who gets to decide what is or not a 'necessary journey'? Going shopping or visiting a friend are equally essential. The former because we need to eat, and the latter because we humans are instinctively social beings. The attempt to keep people 'distanced' from each other is only going to work for so long. 


 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
22 April 2020 15:26:10


Mass survailance through phone data. Get some data analysists in analyse people's movement patterns and arrest anyone fulfilling some basic criteria. Adapt the algorithm to increase rate of sucess.


And yes this will truly screw with our civil liberties afterwards. But if people had just behaved none of this would need to happen.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Pretty much all of this contradicts your idea of freedom when it comes to the concept of 'free speech'. Curious how you have argued, quite well I will acknowledge, for the latter, yet see no problem having peoples basic freedom to roam to be severely restricted. Freedom is freedom. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
David M Porter
22 April 2020 15:36:22

An excellent letter in yesterday's edition of Scottish broadsheet The Herald, formerly known as the Glasgow Herald, on the UK government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic since it started in this country:


https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18393189.letters-heads-need-roll-make-sure-never-happens/


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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