I'd rather us not be the 'Las Vegas', though.

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What do you put the apparent scaling back of enforcement down to?

 

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aYes Joe it is very difficult even myself after nearly 50 years of employment I still want to do something I was never one to want to go on the club and be happy with it many are many are not it’s how you are made I guess I was wanted to provide for my family as many honest folk do here.

To be honest I think imo only lockdown will end about June time and then probably a second lockdown as we head into Autumn depending on the state of the second wave.

crucially I agree timing on all of this looks impossible but I do really understand your predicament but life to me imo must always come first even if I was completely skint not nice I know.

 

Mayor of Liverpool City Region calls for inquiry as to why the Champions League game hosting Atletico Madrid and 3,000 of their coronavirus-ridden fans was allowed to go ahead. The idiotic decision to let 250,000 pack into Cheltenham race course should also be investigated. 

These are major errors, and even at the time experts were voicing real concerns. 

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Evening on the M20 - normality returns, at least in one direction!

(There's been an accident involving an overturned vehicle, hence the queues. Accidents are a regular occurance in normal lockdown times, you can gaurantee at least one a week on the M20 and M2!)

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Hmmmm... 20,000 deaths vs 100 deaths. Tricky that one.

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From what I'm seeing around here the lock-down is gradually "fraying at the edges".  IMHO  just going on allowing that to happen is the worst of both worlds.  It's costing the Govt. a packet in Furlough and all the other stuff while at the same time  becoming increasingly ineffective. 

We either need a crackdown or we need to start a phased loosening. IMHO.  My main concern is "The Folks" in their mid 80s.  I know Dad is already starting to annoy Mum after a few weeks  and I don't think it's going to be practical to keep them in isolation like we have been doing for a potential year and a half longer.

My mate, who works for Tarmac as a contractor at Heathrow and isn't currently furloughed, but they have just announced a pay cut fro non furloughed staff.  I'm wondering if this might be  something that becomes more widespread as time goes on.

 

 

 

 

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The vast majority of those vehicles are lorries and vans, probably making deliveries. 

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I see Dr Pangloss has found his inner Tory again He will be backing Brexit soon

The lack of enforcement and so few fines issued is fuelling this flouting of the guidelines.

Rather like the London riots of 2011, when the police allowed looting, which then led to more looting - people can see these rules are not being enforced 

 

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And Boris and Carrie went to the Rugger game between Eng and Wales

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yes Martin if folk like me with limited brain power can see or question at the time should this event go ahead? it looks ridiculous given the situation.

hindsight is a wonderful thing but it could be seen as manslaugter for folk who have lost loved ones because of it.

 

 

I'm sure the vast majority of people support continuation of the measures...

...but don't think they should fully apply to themselves. 

 

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I don't have any real evidence one way or the other, do you? Round here I've seen no enforcement action at any stage round here in any event.

Maybe the negative media coverage of the isolated overreaction by a few police officers was the reason?  There are a few on here who were delighted to grap any opportunity to paint the police in a bad light for trying to do a difficult job.

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I don't know your personal circumstances or the geography of Durham (i.e. can you plan walks without contravening social distancing?) or whether you have a large garden, so I probably shouldn't presume to comment, but staying in, looking at four walls for a week  let alone five weeks, would drive me screaming up one of them. Despite her dementia, Rhoda too needs better stimulation than listening to daytime TV all day (she can't focus on the screen)

Chichester has lots of green spaces and empty roads connecting them, and people are punctilious about observing the 2m. distance, nearly always standing to one side to let Rhoda in wheelchair and myself past. Consequently we have felt secure enough to go out for a walk every afternoon this month, for an hour or two in each case. We have no sign of any infection yet, and I check body temps daily.

FWIW West Sussex has about 1 in 900 of population confirmed cases and Durham 1 in 500.

Are we living in a fools' paradise? I hope not - but I'm sure that my mental health and perspective on the situation are the better for not sitting at home 24/7.

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Not nice on 7 news

Some coronavirus patients in intensive care units are experiencing a new, potentially fatal symptom.

Persistent and rapid blood clots have begun emerging in patients suffering from the virus, which has infected more than 2.6 million people worldwide.

Doctors in the United States, where the death toll is the highest out of anywhere in the world, say the clotting is “unprecedented”.

“It’s rare to have that happen once, and extremely rare to have that happen twice,” Dr Kathryn Hibbert at the Massachusetts General Hospital said.

Dr Jeffrey Laurence, a hematologist in New York, said: “The number of clotting problems I’m seeing in the ICU, all related to COVID-19, is unprecedented.

“Blood clotting problems appear to be widespread in severe COVID.”

 

I find this hard to believe, when the wet market was also selling Pangolins which could easily have been infected. 

My guess is that it went from bat to pangolin in the wild, and then to human at the market

Did they find Patient Zero?

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That's human nature for you, isn't it?  A bit like obeying the Highway Code?  😉

I think this point was debated several weeks ago: if you want to make sure the law is followed by even the lowest common denominator then you end up with draconian laws and equally draconian enforcement. Clearly you really can't go down that route so you end up with something that the vast majority will accept and follow willingly - for a reasonable time.

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https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

Strongly recommend people read this.

Strong evidence that large droplet transmission is the main vector of infection.

Large droplets can be more easily transmitted through talking, singing, cheering, heavy breathing, coughing, sneezing e.c.t.

Stay at least 8m apart from people and do not talk to strangers.

Passive breathing is ineffectual at spreading large droplets.

 

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A slight rise in confirmed cases today. I am getting very concerned. The most recent evidence suggets R0 is extremely close to 1 and may be getting close to going over.

The peak was in early April, and my model basically called it bang on. Since then it has failed to capture the downslope, the conclusion is that R0 must have ceased falling. However I can model the most recent behaviour in the confirmed cases most accurately when I assume that R0 is constant and one.

Every day now feels like waiting to see another spike.

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So that’s why you hate dog walkers in the morning it was proven to be 4M on a icu in China posted last night but I can’t find the link at the minute.

 

Got an auntie in her mid 80s who’s just not going to follow any shielding advice! It’s difficult to disagree - to paraphrase I don’t know how long I’ve got left, might not be here next year so I’m not going to sit inside starting at the wall. Don’t tell me it’s important for my health, what’s the point of staying alive if you can’t live?

We are going to see a second surge based on the adherence to lockdown round here. It’s back to BAU.

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I can do the strangers bit easily. Apart from the check out chicks at Tesco, I havent spoken to a real person since the pub closed on March 20

Staying 8m apart from anything, man or beast, is going to be impossible!

 

 

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1st June looks to be the earliest moment  for schools

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52377277

 

 

 

Its been evident for sometime that this "Wuhan plague" is nothing like the flu

If you get it bad, you may suffer permanent damage.

We need to study patients with milder symptoms as well to see if they have suffered lasting damage to their white cell production 

 

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