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Chidog
28 April 2020 16:24:38

Regardless of what you think of the UK response (it was too slow) the graph just posted is clear fake news, all other countries back in normal range of deaths?

Saint Snow
28 April 2020 16:25:39


 


Is it possible that Germany has seen no excess mortality or (more likely IMO) that this is incomplete data? 


If this graph is broadly accurate, it's absolutely shocking for England and even more so given that we had a 2-week advantage/warning from Italy.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


The government used that 2-week advantage to productively sit there like gormless idiots with their thumbs up their arses, merrily attending mass-spectator events whilst the PM's own father told us all to still visit pubs (before breaking lockdown restrictions to swan off to his Exmoor country estate for a prolonged jolly)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
John p
28 April 2020 16:28:11


This may be the best indicator of the real state of place in terms of deaths by covid by country. I think those trying to excuse away things by pointing up difference between countries or data queries are guilty of apologism.


 


No photo description available.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


And that’s just for England,  not even including the rest of the UK

Camberley, Surrey
John p
28 April 2020 16:30:06


 


 


He didn't even say what the change was from (they always do when it falls) just hoping we didn't notice no doubt.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


If you watch these things carefully, there’s always very subtle changes to the messaging. 


Instead of saying daily hospital cases up by x%, they change it to down over the week by 14%.

Camberley, Surrey
xioni2
28 April 2020 16:37:33


The governments 5 tests text has seen a slight change in the text on number 5


Before


After


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


And in 2 weeks time:


5 > Confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not kill everybody on these islands.


Brian Gaze
28 April 2020 16:46:21


The governments 5 tests text has seen a slight change in the text on number 5


Before



After



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


It's a huge change. I had been wondering about point 5 and thought it meant lockdown could not be lifted for a long time. There is now much more wriggle room. 


 


Edit: Did any journalists pick up on it?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
28 April 2020 16:50:43


 


And that’s just for England,  not even including the rest of the UK


Originally Posted by: John p 


If the UK average was used the number would be lower.


I think, the numbers are correct using the methodology (having just spent some time on the EuroMOMO website) but I think that whoever has shaded in the “normal range” on the graph has used the “substantial increase” threshold for the top of the normal range when this is not the case on the original graphs. Otherwise it seems accurate.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 16:55:15


 


And that’s just for England,  not even including the rest of the UK


Originally Posted by: John p 


The trend (while still excessive) is generally on a downward trend for the rest of the UK:


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/


 


Not the easiest site to obtain actual country data from, and individual country data seems only to be expressed by 'Z-scores'. 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 16:58:08


 


If the UK average was used the number would be lower.


I think, the numbers are correct using the methodology (having just spent some time on the EuroMOMO website) but I think that whoever has shaded in the “normal range” on the graph has used the “substantial increase” threshold for the top of the normal range when this is not the case on the original graphs. Otherwise it seems accurate.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It also isn't clear which or what data the 'normal range' is based on. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
28 April 2020 17:04:04


 


It also isn't clear which or what data the 'normal range' is based on. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I think it is based on the expected range excluding the (2009) H1N1 pandemic from what I can see but it is not stated explicitly.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
28 April 2020 17:07:17


The governments 5 tests text has seen a slight change in the text on number 5


Before



After



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Is this slight though? It seems it is saying that a new peak is acceptable as long as the levels can be coped with by the now (higher) availability of the NHS.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 17:08:15


 


I think it is based on the expected range excluding the (2009) H1N1 pandemic from what I can see but it is not stated explicitly.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That would makes sense DoctorMog, thanks. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
28 April 2020 17:13:48


 


As an aside, I am sure my front door handle was 'checked' last night to see if it had been locked as we heard it go about 11.30pm. We were burgled on New Years Day morning at 5am a few years back where I hadn't locked the front door. 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Do you have a camera? Not that it really helps as they all make sure they cover their faces and the police didn't even want me to email them my footage. When so called "petty" crime is not tackled, they move onto more serious stuff. Zero tolerance in some US states did work and before the cuts started  here in 2010, Im sure they would have taken it more seriously


I keep my porch light on all night these days, not sure if it helps, but perhaps it might put them off. I also go to bed really late anyway and seem to get up at the slightest noise and look out the window. Its not a good mindset to be in and I can never seem to relax at night


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
28 April 2020 17:15:06


 


 


 But, like, we shouldn't criticise the government...


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Except, quite properly, every one (more or less) is criticising them.


But how long do we keep flagging the same point? 


I'm more concerned that the government gets its future decisions right and I'm concerned that it won't.  I really hope that those siren voices wanting an urgent return to 'normality' are ignored.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
28 April 2020 17:17:06


 


It's a huge change. I had been wondering about point 5 and thought it meant lockdown could not be lifted for a long time. There is now much more wriggle room. 


 


Edit: Did any journalists pick up on it?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not Laura thats for sure. 


We are being prepared for a big Bozo announcement of easing some restrictions to begin on May 7


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
28 April 2020 17:19:22


 


Do you have a camera? Not that it really helps as they all make sure they cover their faces and the police didn't even want me to email them my footage. When so called "petty" crime is not tackled, they move onto more serious stuff. Zero tolerance in some US states did work and before the cuts started  here in 2010, Im sure they would have taken it more seriously


I keep my porch light on all night these days, not sure if it helps, but perhaps it might put them off. I also go to bed really late anyway and seem to get up at the slightest noise and look out the window. Its not a good mindset to be in and I can never seem to relax at night


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You can get pretty decent WiFi battery-operated security cameras now.  I put one at the back of our property - the battery lasts several months between charge and you can set it to alert you (app on the mobile phone) and access the camera from anywhere.  It records and has a microphone and speaker.


Got woken at 7am recently by an oil tanker driver who had got lost and was peering at our oil tank....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
28 April 2020 17:19:28


 


If you watch these things carefully, there’s always very subtle changes to the messaging. 


Instead of saying daily hospital cases up by x%, they change it to down over the week by 14%.


Originally Posted by: John p 


THey cant help spinning can they? In other countries they just give  you the facts, however grim


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
28 April 2020 17:22:44


 


It's a huge change. I had been wondering about point 5 and thought it meant lockdown could not be lifted for a long time. There is now much more wriggle room. 


 


Edit: Did any journalists pick up on it?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Wiggle room ?? An elephant could turn around in that , its a massive change and gives them a lot of room for manoeuvre 


The initial point 5 gave the message we are in this for months and months ( as you say )

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 17:26:41


 


You can get pretty decent WiFi battery-operated security cameras now.  I put one at the back of our property - the battery lasts several months between charge and you can set it to alert you (app on the mobile phone) and access the camera from anywhere.  It records and has a microphone and speaker.


Got woken at 7am recently by an oil tanker driver who had got lost and was peering at our oil tank....


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Was your camera reasonably priced? thinking of getting one for the back as someone has been generously filling our bins with their rubbish for a while now, yet we never catch them doing it. Need to catch the suspect! 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
noodle doodle
28 April 2020 17:27:40

Z-scores are scaled to the standard deviation, not absolute numbers

If England has had a very stable death rate over the last few years, accounting for seasonal fluctuations, it will have a low standard deviation

I don't see any other reason how England's score is at near 50 and Scotland topped out at 17 - there haven't been 3 times as many deaths per capita


 


Oh, hang on, Hickster above already explained it

Phil G
28 April 2020 17:29:50


 


Do you have a camera? Not that it really helps as they all make sure they cover their faces and the police didn't even want me to email them my footage. When so called "petty" crime is not tackled, they move onto more serious stuff. Zero tolerance in some US states did work and before the cuts started  here in 2010, Im sure they would have taken it more seriously


I keep my porch light on all night these days, not sure if it helps, but perhaps it might put them off. I also go to bed really late anyway and seem to get up at the slightest noise and look out the window. Its not a good mindset to be in and I can never seem to relax at night


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I have been thinking of a camera but never got round to it. My porch light was on, four cars parked outside but a chancer will still have a go if he could get in. Ever since it happened, you can imagine my bedtime routine, check the door handle, a few times. Then in bed I sort of go off to sleep but ready if I see the uninvited mobile phone light drifting up the stairwell again. I'll be ready next time if it happens again. 

Brian Gaze
28 April 2020 17:32:55


Not Laura thats for sure. 


We are being prepared for a big Bozo announcement of easing some restrictions to begin on May 7


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


PS: I attended an online beer and food pairing event last Saturday. The guy presenting it mentioned the Red(On)Lion pub. Don't know if it's of interest:


https://theredonlion.co.uk/


I'm sure you don't have drink real ale if that's not your thing. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
28 April 2020 17:33:48


 


Was your camera reasonably priced? thinking of getting one for the back as someone has been generously filling our bins with their rubbish for a while now, yet we never catch them doing it. Need to catch the suspect! 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


The camera I’m planning to get is the blink xt2, available on Amazon and it’s Wi-Fi so easy to setup. Some friends have it and they say it’s good 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
28 April 2020 17:36:28


 


You can get pretty decent WiFi battery-operated security cameras now.  I put one at the back of our property - the battery lasts several months between charge and you can set it to alert you (app on the mobile phone) and access the camera from anywhere.  It records and has a microphone and speaker.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I have motion sensor option on mine, but I have to turn it off because the Foxes keep triggering it. Same with the motion spot lights! 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
28 April 2020 17:40:03


 


Was your camera reasonably priced? thinking of getting one for the back as someone has been generously filling our bins with their rubbish for a while now, yet we never catch them doing it. Need to catch the suspect! 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I think I paid about £50-£60.  The same make/model is now £20 more but there are identical cameras under a different brand name at Amazon for around £50 and other products from £30 - plus the cost of the memory card.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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