Where's Boris? 

I know of a couple of instances where the virus has come back for a few days before a full recovery. Boris too?

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Government talks about only essential travel etc

So why does Good Morning Britain need to send their main news reporter and probably a small crew, all the way to Sheffield to stand outside a care home to make live news report on the impact of coronavrius on care homes?  At 6.30 in the morning?!

That care home has enough issues without a news team hanging around outside.

 

 

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He didn't sound right on Monday. My guess is he is knackered. 

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Just  on Monday ?

 

 

 

 

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Care home deaths to be released this afternoon... I wonder how accurate they’ll be?

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BA planning to lay-off 12,000 - more than half those currently on furlough. It doesn’t expect air traffic to reach pre-crisis levels for ‘several years’

The economic tsunami is starting

— Andrew Adonis (@Andrew_Adonis) April 29, 2020

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Calls today for the furlough scheme to be extended into Autumn 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/extend-coronavirus-wage-subsidies-or-risk-delayed-redundancies-firms-warn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

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Yes, this was reported yesterday and commented on in yesterday’s thread.

This, of course, is the proverbial tip of the iceberg: there will be impacts widely.

Airports: security, shops, restaurants, car parking, buses/coaches, taxis, baggage handling etc

Airlines: in-flight catering, engineering, call centres, customer service

Aircraft makers - already reports about Boeing and Airbus: both in financial difficulties with deliveries suspended and orders cancelled.

More widely the trend BA is expecting will impact the entire leisure and hospitality sector in various ways, predominantly negative.

 

 

 

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Me too, RR. These data should expand the national picture of the distribution and degree of the infection. The captive population of people in care and their carers will provide a valuable sample of the nation's health and mortality and give us a much clearer understanding of the current situation. The greater the general risk to us all, the worse the care situation is likely to prove. Some sampling has been going on, but this population could have been a barometer of the nation's health throughout the outbreak and additionally would have shone a spotlight on the standard of care currently being provided. That's something that should concern us all.

Roger

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Many many businesses are on the brink and with zero revenue coming in things are going to get ugly very soon.This is why iam certain the restrictions will start to be slowly lifted after May 7th.The news concerning BA is really bad and as GW has mentioned the knock on effects are huge! Tourism,travel,hospitality and some of the lesiure industries could be decimated in the coming months,not too mention the final demise of the high street and coming housing crash.

 

BA must be working on the assumption that even after restrictions are eased many people will choose not to travel voluntarily. I think prior to this there was a global shortage of airline pilots and salaries (£102k per annum for a Captain, see https://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Airline_Captain/Salary) had been increasing quite nicely in recent years. It will be interesting to see what happens as we move forward.

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I think you are right, the furlough scheme runs until the end of June and I’m sure it may well be extended for some. No doubt though the government will want to get the economy going so that cost can be kept to a minimum.

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Again it seems to me we are sleepwalking towards disaster. Or perhaps I should say compounding the existing disaster. The pressure to ease the lockdown in the UK appears to be mostly coming from Tory donors and big money. Polling suggests the public are nowhere near as keen. This from The Times:

Public against swift coronavirus reopening, poll shows

A YouGov survey for The Times found that 28 per cent of people do not want any aspect of the lockdown eased even if all five tests have been met. Other options attract modest support: 22 per cent want more shops open and only 11 per cent want schools to be reopened. Only 4 per cent want the lockdown lifted entirely, according to the survey.
...
The YouGov survey is the latest to bolster the case of those in government who believe that MPs pressing for more clarity on ending the lockdown are out of step with public opinion. Some cabinet ministers believe that it is futile or even counterproductive to encourage people to return to work until public opinion softens.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/public-against-swift-coronavirus-reopening-poll-shows-55f620fz7

 

In Germany potential problems from easing restrictions are already starting to emerge:

Germany ready to tighten lockdown as coronavirus infection rate climbs again

Germany may be compelled to bring back elements of its lockdown amid signs that coronavirus cases could be on the point of starting to multiply again.

The country’s virus reproduction rate, which measures how many people the average person with Covid-19 infects, has rebounded to a value of 1.0, the dividing line between growth and decline, according to epidemiologists.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

 

The evidence at the moment suggests a) the public want more reassurance and remain frightened, so easing too quickly could be counterproductive politically b) easing could see infection rates rapidly spiking again and that leads to the possibility of deaths reaching unacceptable levels. My view is Johnson and his government are in danger of repeating the mistakes of March when Cheltenham, the Liverpool match and the Stereophonics gigs all contributed to the initial catastrophe.       

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True. However, I don't think restrictions will be lifted in quite the way most people anticipate. Disease control measures are likely to remain in place for a very long time IMO, perhaps several years. Some business models will be able to adapt to working within the guidelines whilst others will not. In any event, the shape of the whole economic landscape will change and things are not going to go back to how they were before.

 

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So 72% are ok with an easing if conditions are met. 

Also, R0 was reported as 0.9 yesterday in Germany down from 1.0 the day before. 

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How can the German rate be climbing after just 3 or 4 days.
28% doesn't sound very high either?
72% do want lockdown easing then.

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I know you think infection rates are much higher in the UK than reported and that we are approaching or have reached herd immunity. I strongly disagree with your view.

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So do I - not that any of us know for sure!

Restrictions are being lifted slowly with sale of dairy cattle at Frome Market  this week returning afer a few weeks of no sales. Still a bit unclear about it but sounds like just one person from each Family/business allowed in the ring.

Yes it’s a factor that will have consequences I doubt any of us can forecast accurately. I’m no expert but I assume that the knock on effects as GTW and others with a far greater understanding of the issues clarify in more detail.

I was though surprised to read an article not so long ago (can’t find the link) from three or four travel journalists who truly believe that things will soon return to normal. They were writing about some of the exotic places they will visit when this crisis is over which they assume will be sometime in this summer.

They had no idea or made any mention about mothballing the machines that take them to these places and maybe thought all it needs is to fill up the plane with fuel, start the engine and off you go.

Although this is more for business jets owners I think the same applies to any kind of aircraft. https://www.bjtonline.com/business-jet-news/mothballing-your-airplane

I for one would be hesitant to travel on one of the ‘taken out of mothballed aircraft’ from a budget airline in case someone had cut a few too many corners in restoring it to airworthy condition. 

One other part of the leisure industry is of course the cruise liner industry. I can’t see that continuing in it’s previous form. Many people fly to the departure point and if there are fewer flights I can’t see the financial viability of the ships remaining. Maybe I’m naive but we are in uncharted waters and the fog is still too thick to see what is ahead. My local parish council still think it will soon be back to normal but who is to say who is right?

Yes where is Boris?

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There needs to be a well considered approach to easing the lockdown, but eased it must be.

None of us is immortal even though we might wish it otherwise. The elderly and the frail were always those most at risk from this pandemic, especially those grouped together in care homes. But we cannot ruin the life chances for the young generation via an interminable lockdown on behalf of the generation passing on. However, with more extensive testing, particularly of care home staff, perhaps the risks can be mitigated.

If it were up to me, I would allow shops and garden centres to open from the weekend, but with social distancing measures put in place and face masks (of some description - home made preferably) mandated when in store.

Pubs and cafes are a different matter - in good weather, I see no reason why people should be prevented from enjoying a beer outside, but unless an establishment is big enough to enforce social distancing indoors (and most are not), there is an issue.

 

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 Big mistake for this country to ease the lockdown too early . Made enough mistakes already and i hope the Government does not bow to pressure .The very idea of football returning is laughable at best. I have , compared to many been relatively un-affected by the whole Pandemic as i continue to work much the same and although trade and prices are not good we can still keep going.

28% - over a quarter - do not want any relaxing of the lockdown even if all the set criteria for doing so is met.

68% want some relaxing of the lockdown, if the set criteria for doing so is met.

Only 4% want it lifting completely under any circumstance.

I believe I saw elsewhere that this is the highest support for maintaining the lockdown across several major Western countries that were similarly polled.

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Hi, I'm from the government and I'm here to help. We'll be lifting the lock-down for you now.....

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Indeed. Many building sites have reopened round here again. Is that allowed? Doesn't seem to be any social distancing taking place

My gardener is back working even though I didn't want him, but he is begging for the business and I gave him a £100 extra as he took some rubbish away for me (he probably fly tipped it though!)

I met a girl who works in the pub in Tesco yesterday. She is on universal credit, not furloughed, and its not enough to live on. 

 

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