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Polar Low
29 April 2020 19:07:07

To strip out the jargon – they’re saying it works. What we don’t know is how well, in whom or what the strength of that evidence is.


The only hint is remdesivir was more effective when given early. The company said: “62% of patients treated early were able to be discharged from the hospital, compared with 49% percent of patients who were treated late.


We’re going to have to wait for the full US data before we know for sure.


Anything that reduces PWIP can only be a good thing ensuring unlikely hospitial overload




 


Maybe there is another RCT with even more sound methodology that shows it works but I doubt it.


These observational studies without control groups are a complete waste of time, they showed HCQ as promising too. In reality these are two random drugs that had just as much chance working as any other random drug. The unfortunate reality is that anything that initially looked promising (and I was also taken in by it) was as a result of methodological flaws rather than anything to actually be excited about.


Hopefully I'm wrong but I trust 1 RCT over a hundred studies without control groups.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

John p
29 April 2020 19:08:39


 


Thanks. I did understand your point but thought you were putting too negative an interpretation on it.


🙂


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes I probably could have worded it better. 👍

Camberley, Surrey
Hippydave
29 April 2020 19:09:38


 


As gandalf pointed out there will be a lag from that.


I mean, tests take a minimun of three days so even if you tested 70k people today with 100k tests you would not expect to see that reflected in the figures until around Saturday.


The hope is the mismatch between capacity and implementation is a combination of startup related logistics (that hopefullly will get resolved) and this lag that I've mentioned.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Seems to me one of the biggest issues with the capacity we have currently is it's concentrated in a few large testing areas and therefore not being utilised properly as getting to it is a problem. Couple that with the fact it's only recently been made easier to access even those inconvenient centres and you can see why the number of tests done is noticeably below the theoretical system capacity. 


To really ramp up testing you'll need an effective postal distribution coupled with a lot more local testing centres so people with mild symptoms and those living with them can get to them without spending 2 hrs + getting there and back.


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Quantum
29 April 2020 19:09:42


To strip out the jargon – they’re saying it works. What we don’t know is how well, in whom or what the strength of that evidence is.


The only hint is remdesivir was more effective when given early. The company said: “62% of patients treated early were able to be discharged from the hospital, compared with 49% percent of patients who were treated late.


We’re going to have to wait for the full US data before we know for sure.


Anything that reduces PWIP can only be a good thing ensuring unlikely hospitial overload


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


The RCT says the opposite; it doesn't work.


To put it another way, remdesivir is as likely to make it worse than it is to make it better.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
John p
29 April 2020 19:12:26
I think Hancock was naive to set a target of 100k by a certain date, but I don’t think it’s a resigning matter IMO.

There’s plenty of other things that require scrutiny and blame but I think a witch hunt for this is wrong.
Camberley, Surrey
Polar Low
29 April 2020 19:16:52

A plan is not a OPEN


 



 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Maunder Minimum
29 April 2020 19:17:05


 


Seems to me one of the biggest issues with the capacity we have currently is it's concentrated in a few large testing areas and therefore not being utilised properly as getting to it is a problem. Couple that with the fact it's only recently been made easier to access even those inconvenient centres and you can see why the number of tests done is noticeably below the theoretical system capacity. 


To really ramp up testing you'll need an effective postal distribution coupled with a lot more local testing centres so people with mild symptoms and those living with them can get to them without spending 2 hrs + getting there and back.


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


My wife and I received emails from our Member of Parliament today, telling us we are eligible for testing should we have symptoms (we don't) and where to go to get one. The only problem I can see going forward, is for those people without transport to the test site (it is 20 miles from where we live - not a problem for us). We cannot offer a lift to anyone without transport who requires a test for obvious reasons.


 

New world order coming.
Saint Snow
29 April 2020 19:47:08




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 April 2020 19:52:58

Isle of Wight being considered for trials of virus tracking app. Good idea, as the population is restricted, basically, to staying on the Island.


But given the reputation of the time-warp which applies there, do the Islanders know what smart phones are?


https://www.islandecho.co.uk/government-consider-isle-of-wight-for-coronavirus-app-trial/

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gooner
29 April 2020 19:58:16

I think Hancock was naive to set a target of 100k by a certain date, but I don’t think it’s a resigning matter IMO.

There’s plenty of other things that require scrutiny and blame but I think a witch hunt for this is wrong.

Originally Posted by: John p 


Totally agree with that , this is a situation no government has ever been in , the hindsight club always know best .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


fairweather
29 April 2020 20:00:28


Re: trust in the media falling, interesting stats gathered by Yougov.


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/media/articles-reports/2020/04/29/no-trust-media-has-not-collapsed-because-coronavir


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Nice to see that the BBC is by far and away the most trusted source. It has been very good in this crisis with its general programmes but the quality of reporters' questions have dropped significantly in my opinion.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
29 April 2020 20:05:11


 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You can be the first to try a pint of coronavirus . 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
29 April 2020 20:06:52


 


Nice to see that the BBC is by far and away the most trusted source. It has been very good in this crisis with its general programmes but the quality of reporters' questions have dropped significantly in my opinion.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


This panorama stuff doesn't help though.


Every single one intervewed is a Labour activist?! They couldn't find one healthcare worker that wasn't a payed up member of Momentum? 


People are right to say that political affiliations don't technically mean the point they are making is invalid, but still there is a bit of a conflict of interest.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
29 April 2020 20:09:01

This could get interesting or mad in a bit


Plan for Opening Up America Again
https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/


 

Brian Gaze
29 April 2020 20:16:45

 


Dr Anthony Fauci, the US government's top infectious-disease expert, says he is optimistic about early results of a trial examining an experimental treatment for coronavirus.


The drug, remdesivir, is an anti-viral that was initially developed as a treatment for Ebola.


"The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery," Dr Fauci said.


Early data shows that the treatment improves recovery for patients from 15 to 11 days, Dr Fauci said. These results may not "seem like a knockout", he added, but "it has proven that a drug can block the virus".


The trial was run by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and has not yet been published.


Dr Fauci's announcement came as the Lancet medical journal published the details of another remdesivir trial in China.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52466471


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
29 April 2020 20:21:18

I think Hancock was naive to set a target of 100k by a certain date, but I don’t think it’s a resigning matter IMO.

There’s plenty of other things that require scrutiny and blame but I think a witch hunt for this is wrong.

Originally Posted by: John p 


He does have a rather strange penchant for targets he is never capable of meeting though!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Polar Low
29 April 2020 20:22:07

Mr T is due to bark about it in above link now live


quote=Brian Gaze;1210736]


 


Dr Anthony Fauci, the US government's top infectious-disease expert, says he is optimistic about early results of a trial examining an experimental treatment for coronavirus.


The drug, remdesivir, is an anti-viral that was initially developed as a treatment for Ebola.


"The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery," Dr Fauci said.


Early data shows that the treatment improves recovery for patients from 15 to 11 days, Dr Fauci said. These results may not "seem like a knockout", he added, but "it has proven that a drug can block the virus".


The trial was run by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and has not yet been published.


Dr Fauci's announcement came as the Lancet medical journal published the details of another remdesivir trial in China.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52466471


 


fairweather
29 April 2020 20:25:59


 


This panorama stuff doesn't help though.


Every single one intervewed is a Labour activist?! They couldn't find one healthcare worker that wasn't a payed up member of Momentum? 


People are right to say that political affiliations don't technically mean the point they are making is invalid, but still there is a bit of a conflict of interest.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Fair enough. Then perhaps they should stop asking members of the CBI on when they are discussing business prospects? Conflict of interests.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
29 April 2020 20:26:07


 


The RCT says the opposite; it doesn't work.


To put it another way, remdesivir is as likely to make it worse than it is to make it better.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We, no, Quantum. The summary quite clearly states that it speeds up the recovery time but that a larger study is required.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


noodle doodle
29 April 2020 20:35:41


 


Totally agree with that , this is a situation no government has ever been in , the hindsight club always know best .


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


It's not hindsight, seconds after it slithered out of his bullshitting cretinous mouth people said it was a ridiculous promise that couldn't be kept 

pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
29 April 2020 20:57:30

Not sure if anyone has linked this - a paper saying many severe coronavirus patients are vitamin-D deficient.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1


Obviously it's one paper out of many and caution should be taken on interpreting the results, but interesting nonetheless. It's suggesting for example that it might be one of the contributory factors to the large number of severe COVID-19 cases in the African American population (accordingly to the paper 80-90% of African Americans are vitamin-D deficient).


Personal experience - I've been taking vitamin-D supplements since the start of the year. My feeling is that for me, it substantially helps mood during the dark winter months. I don't know if it really affects my cold/flu symptoms (although interestingly I get far fewer colds and allergies since moving to Canada around 11 years ago).

--
Paul.
Saint Snow
29 April 2020 21:15:04


 


Nice to see that the BBC is by far and away the most trusted source. It has been very good in this crisis with its general programmes but the quality of reporters' questions have dropped significantly in my opinion.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


Probably had another threat to its 'unique status' because the Beeb was drifting away from their new role as Tory Party mouthpieces


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
29 April 2020 21:15:07


 


We, no, Quantum. The summary quite clearly states that it speeds up the recovery time but that a larger study is required.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


That was a subgroup, and now I look again it says the result wasn't even statistically significant.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
29 April 2020 21:16:27


 


Fair enough. Then perhaps they should stop asking members of the CBI on when they are discussing business prospects? Conflict of interests.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


My specific issue was that they were all Labour activists. A smigeon of diversity (the real sort) isn't too much to ask.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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