South Korea joins China and New Zealand in being able to declare a clean sheet after a corona virus epidemic.

Closer to home things are less encouraging. Germany has recorded 1,478 new cases for the past 24 hours, marking the fourth day that new infections have gone up.

[source: BBC]

LOL Brian - can you copy/delete my post please!

Good for them. Now all they have to do is keep their borders closed for the next year or so...

(While they've avoided much of a first peak, they'll be even more vulnerable to a second, larger peak, as they'll have practically zero herd immunity...)

From the other thread.

Somewhat different view from the Tele this morning:

Boris Johnson to dash hopes coronavirus lockdown will be lifted soon

PM to say it is too early for major easing as figures show UK could have one of the world's worst death rates

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/29/boris-johnson-dash-hopes-lockdown-will-lifted-soon/

Also from the Telegraph

Over-50s should be kept under coronavirus lockdown measures for longer, say researchers

New paper suggests safest way out of lockdown is social distancing combined with 'rolling age-release strategy'

The over-50s should be kept in lockdown for longer than younger groups and fined if they cannot prove their age when out and about, researchers at the University of Warwick have suggested.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/29/over-50s-should-kept-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-longer-say/

Remember all the bullsh1t we were told in mid-March? Once the virus starts spreading, then it's not containable, the Chinese data is dodgy etc. 

Whereas if >90% of our people hasn't had the virus yet, we are in such a stronger position.

And while we're at it, lock up all the BAME population? Anyway, when they find me dead on my livingroom floor, they can just just check me off as 'died of starvation'. Bet the oldest researcher was aged 49.

Perhaps a better way would be to lock Tim Martin up - BBC radio report this morning "Wetherspoons planning to reopen at end of June"

Exactly! Darren’s post made me smile as well!

So apparantely BAME healthcare proffesionals are being prioritized for PPE in some places, and there are considerations about removing them from the front line.

Despite the fact that if BAME people are more vulnerable (they probably are a bit) they are not the most vulnerable group that should be 'priotized'. If you had to prioritize a group of healthcare proffesionals by demographic then the order would be:

1) Older workers

2) Men

3) Fatter workers (although you might make the case that this is a lifestyle choice)

4) BAME

But of course older fat men are the group have fewer 'diversity points' on the progressive stack so I can't say I'm suprised.

Still a black young women is much less vulnerable than an old white man yet the former gets priority over the later?

Morning Q.

In any society the outsider and underdog gets a bad deal, whoever they are. Can you envisage a society which accepts wholeheartedly the duty of the privileged in-group to look after the well being of the less-privileged? Answer: a bit?

R.

Well, sniping aside, the basic point is unarguable: they will have to keep their borders closed or impose very tight quarantine procedures. 

Viruses don’t recognise borders.

They probably will have to because of the failure of other countries to contain the virus. However, this might not be such a problem if they lift their internal restrictions and just wait for the potential vaccine. 

Echoes of Logan's Run there especially if you keep refining the age range down to thirty and re-birthing anyone over that age.

Who comes up with this stuff?

The Times is reporting that oestrogen patches are being tested on men as a potential treatment. 

50 is far too young an age to use as a cut off.

I'm glad, Xioni, that you have personally tested everyone in the UK for antibodies! You must publish the research ASAP.

Anyway, even a slight herd immunity will reduce the peak of the second wave which is - after all - inevitable unless lockdown continues for another year and a bit. I'm sure you remember the simulations in the Washington Post which show this simple point very well. Again, the more people that have had it the harder it is for it to spread... no, we won't have many immune at the moment but we do have some, which is more than can be said for those counties that have largely avoided it so far.

Herd immunity, whether by vaccine or people getting it is the only way out of this.

That is unreasonably and unjustifiably harsh. Pretty much every country on the planet has been affected; there are reasons that the three you have cited have been fortunate/effective.

China has not eradicated it; South Korea is much more attuned to this threat because of its proximity to China and past experience with SARS; New Zealand has done well but it’s circumstances are just not applicable to many other countries.

Germany was cited here as a role model and look what’s happening there. 

Harping on about how well a couple of countries have done - so far - really doesn’t add anything. We are all where we are now.

You'll be able to spot a coronavirus survivor by his moobs.

This was the point I was debating with Q yesterday evening. The research, published in The Lancet, stated exactly what this BBC report says:

”Remdesivir cut the duration of symptoms from 15 days down to 11 in clinical trial at hospitals around the world.”

It also makes it clear that there was no evidence of any effect on the death rate.

But as managing pressure on hospitals is a key objective, a reduction of >25% in time spent in hospital is significant.

But a further, larger study was recommended - and side effects were reported (as they are with most drugs).

Sniping aside, what on Earth did I write that was unreasonably and unjustifiably harsh? Are you starting one of your weird online crusades again? If countries manage to contain their own epidemic, but many others don't, then the first ones will probably have to use border controls.

And it's not just a couple of countries. It's tens of countries which so far have largely contained their epidemic (they avoided its exponential surge) and it's certainly no luck, the biggest factor was their early and aggressive action.

The continued dogged refusal of certain people to see what a number of countries have achieved by early lockdown and/or assiduous testing and tracing is astonishing. This idea that they will inevitably fall to a 2nd wave is nonsense. As you say, they've got the methodology to ward off a second wave: do what they have been doing and have border controls. It's really not rocket science.