You can see the European (and other) views from here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob 

While I take your general point, I think it should be remembered that there were differences between 2007 and 2012 in terms of when the best weather in each of those springs came along.

In 2007, the warm and dry spell first started towards the end of March and then continued right through April and into early May. It was only im mid-May when the weather took a turn for the worse. 2012 was different, in that the best weather came during the second half of March with temperatures getting into the 20s in some areas for a while. April 2012 turned out to be a different kettle of fish to April 2007 though; it was generally unsettled and fairly cool throughout from what I recall and set the tone for much of the rest of 2012.

I think that pattern matching can and does have some relevance, but I would be careful about putting a huge amount of faith in it tbh. The weather doesn't have a memory.

Thank you. So now with a more detailed view even Scotland looks to be about average. 

Right at the end of the forecast on the BBC website, Ben Rich mentioned briefly that the weather would turn much colder next weekend.  On the GEFS plots for both Aberdeen and London there is one solitary member that shows this.  Gavin P in his weekly thoughts gives a hint of cold next weekend, too.  It could be a change to keep an eye on.

Saw that forecast as well Angus. The latest GFS 12z however suggests its not next weekend we should be looking at this but the weekend after now, and the chance of copious rain as well with low pressure in the channel. A long way away however and let's see what the ECM says.

Edit: ECM says no a colder blast is on the way next weekend and the BBC are going for that one. The times we have seen two of the main models differ so much, only for the outcome to finish somewhere between the two.

As of the 12z runs today, for 7-9 days from now...

Cold spell of exceptional magnitude for the time of year, with widespread scattered showers that could at times turn wintry even to low levels: ECM, GEM, UKMO (all lined up at +144).

Cold diverted east of the UK, warmer but unsettled with lows tracking through the UK: GFS, ICON

In between the two - glancing blow from the cold air - cool days and cold nights, some showers - mainly in the east: JMA.

As Phil G says, the reality is often a blend of ECM and GFS, so JMA may be onto something here.

It will be interesting to see which model, if any, verifies.  Big differences between ECM and GFS Ops for next weekend. I notice that my Google weather forecast seems to be reflecting ECM at the moment with a big temperature drop on Sunday. 

and meteo group on BBC WFTWA

Nursery rhynmes for the modern era

The North wind doth blow
And we shall have snow
And what will the robin do then, poor thing?

He'll go back to his nest
And take a brief rest
From raising his chicks in the Maytime, poor thing.

More like:

The north wind doth blow

And we won't have snow

And what will the robin do then, poor thing?

He'll go back to his nest

And have a nice rest

From being blown around in the spring.

It'll be interesting to see if the NNE'ly near-gales being forecast for here actually come off... it's an unusual direction to have such strong winds. GFS, incidentally, is showing temperatures varying between 6C by night and 9C by day as a result here. Cold for the time of year, but nowhere near cold enough for snow.

Will we get the direly cold weather? http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 directs it mostly to Europe.

GFS has HP over UK until Sat 9th; unlike yesterday's forecast the HP then wobbles around between Iceland and Scotland for the next week to Sat 16th with occasional incursions of cold air from the NE but nothing dramatic; shallow LP then drifts up from the Continent to affect S England. Nothing off the Atlantic as there was yesterday

ECM treats the development of the HP differently. The current cell fades out southwards by Sat 9th and a new one starts out in Greenland with a brief spell of NE gales Sun 10th. The HP then drifts s-wards to W Ireland by Thu 14th cutting off the really cold stuff,; N-lies, yes but the source of the air is Atlantic round the top of the high.

GEFS after mild this week is going for a really big dip in temp in nearly all runs (not just outliers as before) on Mon 11th, 8-9C below norm, slowly recovering over the following week, and some rain at the same time. Bit s and pieces of rain later on.