10-day forecast continuing wet for week1 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 but drying up slowly in week 2; temps on companion page nothing startling but some warm weather further S in France which might - just might - come north later.

GFS has LP centres moving across UK on Fri 1st and Tue 5th (the latter with a pulse of S-lies preceding it) then ridge of HP Fri 8th persisting until pushed away E-wards by large Atlantic depression Tue 12th intensifying Thu 14th.

ECM (still yesterday's 12z) quite different on Tue 5th with LP staying well to SW and warm temps under HP hanging around to at least Thu 7th.

GEFS forecasts unstable with far less rain for this week than shown yesterday (BBC does not agree), no more than a sprinkling, and that continuing on and off through to Thu 14th. General agreement on a warm spell Tue 5th (cf above), otherwise the mean of runs close to seasonal norm but with wide divergence* later on. Scotland gets a marked spell of rain to go with the warmth on the 5th.

* The undistinguished mean conceals a few very warm runs and a greater number just below average.

ECM once again on the optimistic pills this morning warm and sunny with a decent plume from about 144h onwards. If we get lucky with the plume we could see high 20s next week.

Much of Southern Europe is likely to really warm up over the next few days, especially Spain (35C in Seville by Sunday) , so any southerly airstream could bring heat to our shores next week.  

12Z GFS unrolling very differently from the 6Z, thankfully if you are after warm weather. 6Z had a full on easterly with widespread snow on northern hills in the second week of May! 12Z has high pressure over the UK instead.

And a grand total of 6mm of rain here between now and the 14th of May on that run. That would leave a running total of 30 something mm of rain here in two and a half months should it come to fruition.

The conversation on past rainfall rather than model output moved to April precipitation thread

GFS having trouble making up its mind and in the end disagreeing with other models about a warm spell. After the current depression drifts off to the N Sea by Sat 2nd (good graphics of the its fronts on FAX) the almost-warm-spell moving up from France only gets as far as the south, briefly, before a new LP centre is over Cornwall Thu 7th bringing in NE-lies off the N Sea for the next few days. From Mon 11th there is slack LP around finally replaced by a zonal W-ly on Fri 15th.

I'll have to come back later to update the ECM - it's the same as GFS to Mon 4th but frustratingly I've got to break off before today's output appears looking fully further ahead.  Tue 5th/Wed 6th have appeared - dramatically different from GFS with HP and warmth from south over all the UK. BBC hinting at this too. [last minute edit - HP and warm fine weather lasting out the week, couldn't be more different from GFS]

GEFS shows rain around for the next two weeks, bits and pieces in the south after the next day or so, more definitely in the north around the 5th and also later around the 12th. Temps above average for a few days around the 5th, after which so much divergence there's no saying what will happen (e.g. a 20C difference between op and control for Brighton on the 14th!)

Another very settled and warm ECM run. Models really struggling for next week though could be anything yet.

Jetstream continues strong westerly  to Mon 4th when it winds itself up into a cut-off pool over the SW approaches. From Sun 10th northern and southern branches fringing the UK , the northern branch moving closer but weakly from the NW from Thu 14th.

After moving the current LP out of the way, GFS has come on board with LP to west of UK Tue 5th bringing warmth up from the south, the LP drifting across the UK by Sun 10th. After that to end of run on Sat 16th HP over or west of UK just about fending off NE-lies from Scandi.

ECM keeps the HP in place through Thu 7th and then experiments with the idea of LP and a plume coming up from the south Sat 9th.

GEFS perturbations still have the warm days  in the S around Tue 5th and extend the above-average spell to Sun 10th, but Scotland no better than seasonal mean throughout. After this a lot of divergence, could be very warm or very cold. bits and pieces of rain around, highest chance about Thu 7th in S England, Mon 4th in Scotland. Some places esp Liverpool showing occasional big spikes typical of thunderstorms.

GFS 18z thrown out a beautiful winter run

up to 162 hours and it looks great for us  Mid 20's easily.

10-day outlook has temps a bit above average, rainfall a  bit below http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

The present LP moves away, and while there's a new one to the SW with HP over Scotland and a S-ly flow by Tue 5th, it doesn't develop. By Fri 8th there's a ridge of high pressure from Iceland to France, quite narrow so that E and W sides of UK could be quite different. The HP shifts S-wards by Wed 13th and by Sat 16th a familiar picture with Atlantic depressions running across N of Scotland.

ECM similar but fancies a more powerful ridge at least to Fri 8th and better weather for the UK in consequence

GEFS perturbations more consistent than yesterday - for the S, temps above seasonal norm to Sat 9th, then a predominant majority for quite cold slowly recovering to norm by Sun 17th; and minimal rain except for a little around the 5th. Similar for Scotland & NE England but temps are close to or below seasonal norm to start with, just a short burst above norm around the 7th.

The 'quite cold' doesn't match the synoptic charts.

ECM going for more ridiculous northern blocking again days 9 and 10. 99% of the time it drops the idea as it gets into the reliable . Lets hope it does again.

Aye, and for a lot of the run it'd be alright here in May. My point (not well explained) what that the run would have been amazing in January.

Unlike the Met Office seasonal ENS mean is going for a below average summer for much of the UK and what is more striking is the very rapid development of a LA Nina in pacific!? 

A very Warm tropical Atlantic too and the Atlantic in general is exceptionally warm which can mean an above TS/hurricane season.

Well our weather is settling down again from tomorrow with HP taking up residence. Yippee!

 Looking at the above GFS ensemble is making me wonder what on Earth has happened to that much more unsettled spell of weather which just a few days ago, we were supposed to have gone into just now according to the model output at that time. Gavin P. mentioned in a recent video where he discussed the GFS ensembles for here in Edinburgh that even though most of the upcoming rainfall would be expected to occur down south, we would still get some of that up here.

However, those charts which Gavin P. showed at the time, showed that to be more the case, than what we are seeing just now according to the above chart. Of course, this isn't the place to discuss how much we have actually got from that, but those readers who have read my reports in the appropriate thread for that will now that we have actually had very little rain from that at a time when our gardens desperately need some rainfall after such a dry April.

Whilst the above chart does still show the chance of a little bit of rain during the next week, I wouldn't be surprised if once again, we ended up getting even less rain than what those above ensembles are predicting. Beyond that, the outlook is continuing to look very dry here and although there is some more rainfall showing up on the less reliable time frame, that is no different from what I was showing in other recent charts which I have posted for here on this thread.

.. and that of course, raises the question of where on Earth was this Greenland high during the winter when we were looking for that to be around to deliver some cold and snowy weather to this part of the world?

The Azores High seems seems to be a similar sort of pest in reverse and when we were looking for that to be around last summer to deliver some warm and sunny weather to these parts, it was posted completely missing and yet, that Azores High always seems to be around during the winter to spoil any chances which we might otherwise have of being able to enjoy a cold winter.

As for that 2007/2012 pattern possibly emerging, I can see that happening as well. We have just had one of our driest Aprils on record here in Edinburgh and I wouldn't be surprised if this month ended up being drier than average in this part of the world as well (in my last post above, I did mention that the latest GFS ensembles were pointing towards this month getting off to a dry start at least, in this part of the world).

It would therefore be just the thing if the heavens then suddenly opened once we got into the actual summer with another wet summer to follow, such as what we had last year. Of course, it is probably too early to speculate on what will actually happen during the summer, but the CFS chart for June which Gavin P. showed us in one of today's videos, does appear to show this summer possibly getting off to a fairly unsettled start with a lot of northern blocking around (something which you generally don't want to be seeing during the summer as that then tends to result in low pressure sitting underneath that block in a position which will often be right on top of the UK).

Having said that though, the high pressure over Scandinavia in that chart does link back to more high pressure in the mid-Atlantic, so it wouldn't take much of an adjustment from that for this to be creating one large area of high pressure right on top of the UK and thus, producing a really decent start to the summer such as what we had in 2018, so you never know what might actually end up happening.

Doesn't look good in a week or so's time does it Tim. We seem to be going backwards. Thereafter hints that the Atlantic may start to exert it's influence. It might turn more unsettled but always the chance it could throw some warmer air into play.

10-day summary suggests still continuing dry, with exceptions in the SW at first and the NW the following week. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 . Temps on companion chart close to average but with large area of cool weather over W Europe which could affect us.

GFS: HP 1025mb over N Scotland by Tue 5th and LP to the SW (FAX shows the latter throwing up fronts into extreme S of England). The HP moves N to Iceland but maintains a ridge to the UK until about Tue 12th, fine weather, but the ridge not strong enough to prevent NE-lies affecting the E & SE. LP then develops over the Atlantic and stays around near Iceland through to Mon 18th with HP over France giving SW-lies for all.

ECM 0z slow to load this morning. Agreement with GFS to Thu 7th, though ridge of HP stronger. Then yesterday's 12z shows a sudden collapse of HP in favour of screaming NE-lies for all by Mon 11th. Improved update urgently wanted! EDIT The 0z now (1215) available still doesn't look nice, but the worst of the NE-lies stay just off the east coast.

GEFS temps in S close to seasonal norm (in Scotland a bit below at first) until about Sat 9th when a general dip for all and remaining on the cool side to Tue 19th. Rain in the S and Midlands around Tue 5th, otherwise intermittently here and there - a few runs with larger totals in the NW towards the end of the period but nothing consistent

Actually if you looked carefully you would see that it doesn't say a below average for UK - though towards Scotland the chance is moderate.

For England & Wales

19-40% above 

41-60% near normal 

19-40% below 

So that could be interpreted in many way.

Worst case..

19% above / 41% average / 40% below

Best case..

40% above / 41% average / 19% below 

Jetstream forecast to run in two branches this week, N & S of UK, Sat 9th- Wed 13th the S branch close to S England, and by Sat 16th forming loop enfolding UK with the UK on the northern side.

GFS shows HP over UK this week (the SW affected by LP at first) with highest pressure 1025mb Thu 7th. Shallow troughs then drift in off the Atlantic Sun 10th, Thu 14th, Mon 18th, the last with more definite NE-lies and all the 'wrong' i.e. cold side of the 552dam line

ECM similar to 10th, but then (still yesterday's run) sets up big blocking HP W of Ireland persisting to at least Tue 12th.

GEFS temps - mean close to seasonal norm, slightly above this week, slightly below next week, though some outliers around Sun 10th/Thu 14th very cold. Some rain here and there from Sun 10th, mostly earlier in the week in the S and later in the N